Thursday, September 3, 2015

What Are We To Make Of This?

This is a spot check of some of the news concerning the market today. What are we to make of this?
  • A Ford Motor assembly worker works on a 2015 Ford Mustang vehicle at the Ford Motor Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Flat Rock, Michigan, August 20, 2015.
    Autos lift US factory goods orders in July 21 Hours Ago, New orders for U.S. factory goods rose for a second straight month in July on strong demand for automobiles.

  • Still, franchise employment growth was still above that of the overall labor market, said ADP

  • Manufacturing misses, slowest growth in 2 years Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 | 10:00 AM ET
    A Ford Motor assembly worker works on a 2015 Ford Mustang at the Ford Motor Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Flat Rock, Michigan, August 20, 2015.
    The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in August to its weakest in over two years, according to a report released on Tuesday.

    Above are the same kind of reports we see and face everyday. These goofball stories are hurled at us daily, they point out unastounding facts such as "for a second straight month" or "weakest in over two years," but all in all it seems that considering the massive amount of money that has been spent by governments nothing is really happening.

    With the markets still in the area of its historic all time highs it seems the economy is going nowhere fast. Reading between the lines a strong case can be made that we have an economy based on auto sales driven by sub-prime loans and low interest rates. I mention the "interest rates" because a common topic in most pieces like those above is how current conditions will most likely cause the Fed to delay changing policy. Couple this with low end job creation and slumping manufacturing and it is hard to be greatly impressed. If anything a person should be concerned about what could be signs of a sharp manufacturing slowdown while China struggles and the strong dollar makes exporting American made goods more difficult.

    While trying to decide if the glass is half full or half empty consider that the National Debt is still growing by leaps and bounds.  A quick look at the National Debt Clock shows tens of billions of dollars being added to the total and the amount owed and how it continues to grow. The ugly truth many people choose to ignore is that starting in 2017 entitlements will become the driving force and carry the deficit further into the nosebleed territory. This appears to be raising no red flags as we continue to hear the media tout the myth we can outgrow our problems and how robust economic growth has helped push the U.S. budget deficit down to the lowest level since 2008. To make this more dire America continues to run a huge trade deficit of over a half a trillion dollars a year.

    It is logical that no country can endure massive trade deficits year after year, it is unsustainable and it is a myth to think that we can "export" our way out of this mess, a myth spread by politicians preaching the "no pain" method of solving a problem. The simple answer is that Americans must begin to accept reality and cut back their purchases of foreign goods. A common claim is that if the dollar goes down that helps U.S. exports so it is a good thing, but remember this is a double edged sword, a lower dollar means imports will cost more. When we put them all together what we should make of all the news articles like those above is they are a warning of  a system that is broken and the path we are on will not end well.

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