Tuesday, August 15, 2017

"Its The Economy Stupid" and this means, "Good jobs"

The Future Is All About Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!
Americans don't just want jobs, they want "good jobs" and this means full-time work that pays well and has benefits. A phrase "The economy, stupid" was coined by James Carville when he was a campaign strategist for Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George H. W. Bush. Directly linked to this phrase is the idea of job creation. Today the fear of being replaced by a robot or seeing your job being outsourced or eliminated is on the rise. Few occupations are totally secure from the wave of labor saving technology currently in the pipeline. This means it is the job of those we have sent to Washington to create or paint a vision that shows how America can integrate labor saving devices into a job creating bonanza or at least an economy that is sustainable going forward.

After facing decades of stagnating or falling wages when adjusted for inflation little wonder exist as to why the average American feels insecure or downright betrayed. Several new technologies headed in our direction scream more economic disruption ahead. One writer I follow has pointed out on more than one occasion how self-driving vehicles is a game changer. Self-driving semi rigs able to safely maneuver and fill the nations interstate highways during the night when traffic is light will reduce daytime congestion but also greatly reduce the ranks of a major occupation that pays relatively well. The ramifications of self-driving vehicles will extend into areas such as taxi jobs and potentially change the relationship most American's have with their automobile. Currently, the automobile is thought of as a mainstay of modern life in this country. Imagine not having to own a car or reducing the number of automobiles in your family because a safe and secure ride is available at the push of a button.

Amazon Boast, It's Moving Towards A Robot Workforce
This returns me to the subject of the economy and jobs. Much of the angst Americans have directed at Washington is in some way or another related to how government policies have allowed jobs to flee the country and sometimes even encouraged this trend. Recent reports signal and makes it increasingly clear that automation is not going away. Increasing wages will only accelerate and drive the trend of replacing expensive human workers with robots. Amazon the behemoth retailer known for cutting prices and exploiting brick and mortar retailers that have higher overhead because they are located in our communities often boast of its cost saving move to utilize more robots and cut human jobs.

The fact is in my area while we continue to hear about unemployment at sixteen-year lows many people remain under employed and are struggling. The average American has good reason to worry not only about their job but the future opportunities available for their children. Let me make it clear, robots taking our jobs will bode poorly for the huge majority of society. The idea that those ultimately left with the decision as to how to divide the economic pie will be generous or fair is a little naive. History shows the ruling class tends to tilt the rules in their favor. Soaring economic inequality is already a major issue and the divide is most likely going to grow ever wider. When it is pointed out that entitlements are about to explode the deficit in coming years logic dictates the nation can no longer delay addressing this issue. While very important to voters creating good quality sustainable jobs is an area where Washington has failed to excel.

Soon Robots Will Be Coming For Your Job
Rest assured when push comes to shove those displaced from the job market or only able to scrape by will find they are only given enough to insure they remain docile and behave. If it ever comes to the point where these people filled with angst hit the streets in angry protest it is very likely they will be beaten into submission for the greater good. It should be pointed out that going forward those on the government dole or a guaranteed income may find they are at the mercy of a system where at any time benefits are canceled or cut.

Tied into Trump's solution to create new jobs and energize America's economy is the strong message that we must demand from other nations fairer trade policies that level the playing field. We cannot compete when other nations pay their workers little, degrade the environment, and often subsidize exports in various ways. This is a stand Trump shares with Bernie Sanders.  Like many backseat political strategist, I have grown weary of politicians failing to fulfill their promises or for that matter accomplishing much of anything. Even while we are told unemployment is at a sixteen year low and we hear companies are clamoring for workers something is definitely wrong and a series of polls indicate that a focus on job creation and the economy is where the attention of those in Washington should be.

Many people voted for Trump because as a businessman they hoped he would have a strong real life advantage over politicians in understanding how to create jobs. To be great a country must be economically strong. The key to any policy geared to creating jobs is getting the foot of government off the neck of small business. This means reducing the regulations strangling the nations most vibrant creator of jobs and where workers gain valuable work skills is a must. Tax reform and laws governing business must reduce the advantages mere size gives big business and its ability to destroy competition by mass alone. As it is big business will benefit most by adopting more automation and robot workers and this bodes poorly for most workers and society if it is not handled in a way that minimizes the damage to our culture. 

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Wealth Redistribution Is Not The Answer To Inequality

Redistribution Of Wealth Is Not the Answer
Dealing with inequality by redistributing wealth puts society on the slippery slope to socialism. More and more we are hearing things like a guaranteed annual minimum income for all individuals is the answer to achieving a society that is more fair and just. We are constantly being told that people deserve their "chicken done right" and how dignity and respect are key to our culture and the linchpins of a great society. The problem with all this is that at some point the rights of one individual begin to impact the rights of another. Simply taking the wealth from one person and giving it to another is theft and not a long term solution to what ails our economic system.

Socialism is a political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole. Deny it as they might those advocating such a system are talking about "more government" when they are talking about the "greater good." A powerful central government controlling the economy for the "greater good" is the central driver of such systems and while the theory may sound appealing it has proven to be rather inefficient when put into practice. Economic systems tied to socialism tend to be unresponsive to changing supply and demand because they lack the proper incentives that cause people to excel and reach their potential.

Shifting global, political and economic tides tend to cause people to forget the failed states of the past as they focus on today and the future. Even communism a relative of socialism is currently looked on with less disdain than in previous decades. This is because the memories of the failed attempts of several countries to create what is often viewed as a fair or better way of distributing the fruits of our labor have faded over time. As inequality grows those clamoring for an answer as to how we might achieve a more just and fair society are again slipping into this trap. Getting something for nothing has a great allure and is a strong reason for many people to line up behind a politician like Bernie Sanders but the flaws of such systems are rapidly apparent in countries like Venezuela that has now fallen into chaos. 

By focusing on how the economic machinery in China has had the effect of improving the lives of hundreds of millions in the last several decades a case can be made that their system is not so bad. This argument ignores several facts and one of the most important is that China's economic growth has been made by and is a product of America. Ironically it was the shift of American jobs to that distant shore and other countries that are responsible for growing inequality here in America. It is baffling that many economists have chosen to ignore the ramifications of China's policies and how they affect the world. When all is said and done the financial missteps in China that have continued over the years will be recognized and the growth fueled by the Chinese government expanding the money supply will come to an abrupt end this has distorted markets across the world.

How We Tax, Key To Why Inequality Continues To Grow!
After a decade of central banks flooding the world with newly created money and super low-interest rates a series of what would have at one time been considered outlandish ideas has surfaced. These include a war on cash, forgiving debt through a debt jubilee, giving everyone a guaranteed income, and even injecting money into the economic system by dropping it from a helicopter. These ideas have all found their way into conversations as not only the best way to reset the economy but as answers to the problems before us. Easy answers such as these may give those suffering from inequality hope and extend their belief those in charge really care, however, this also creates the false illusion that the system is stable.

It should be immediately apparent that wealth redistribution can take many forms and has many faces. Any real attempt to address the issue of inequality must have true incentives to create new wealth and promote the kind of growth that is both sustainable and gives the average person opportunity or in a very short time the money will again flow back into the hands of a few. Taxation is and always has been a major tool for social engineering and that is why it is so important we do not underestimate how tax policies feed back into the economy. Of course, taxation can also be used to redistribute wealth but its main function should be to fund necessary parts of the government. Sadly, while almost everyone agrees the tax code is broken almost no one can agree on how to fix it. If you feel Washington failed miserably in addressing America's healthcare woes be prepared for more of the same when it comes to the issue of tax reform.

Friday, August 11, 2017

Nuclear War Moves Up List Of Worlds 10 Worst Problems

Threat Of Nuclear War Grows Larger
Generally, we see little movement in the list of the "Worlds 10 Worst Problems" when they are counted down from least to most crucial. In fact little has changed until now from late 2013 when this list was first composed, however, we would be remiss or negligent not to do some serious reshuffling to reflect the drum beats of war flowing out of Washington and North Korea. Please note, the leap from fourth to first place for "Weapons of war and mass destruction" is very significant because it can be very difficult to get this particular genie back in the bottle once it is out. Of course, when composing this list the term "most crucial" is very subjective, meaning that it depends greatly on an individual's interest and priorities.

Like many people, I do not find what is known as the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction, or MAD to be reassuring. What the world would look like following a nuclear war is very murky, yet today it seems many people consider nuclear weapons as just another tool or option for us to use in our defense if we are attacked. The nuclear deterrent America holds is a hundred times larger than needed to stop anyone sane or rational from attacking America, and for anyone else, an arsenal of any size will be insufficient. The sad fate that conventional warfare has unleashed upon Mosul and Aleppo where death and destruction have turned once proud cities into rubble stands as a monument of man's inhumanity towards man, however, pales to the devastation a nuclear attack would wreak.

Future Generations Depend On Us
The greatest problems faced by mankind impact the shape of our lives' and our very existence. Most of these are issues that center on our sustainability which means we must begin to address these many problems with long term solutions. Sadly, politicians do not deal well with such things leaving mankind without a great deal of direction. As we look at the human condition we can let fate take us where it may choose or we can take control of our future by proper planning and by guiding it as best we can.

Below is a list of the world's ten most crucial problems. Remember the position a problem holds on this list can shift from time to time as events take place, but expect most of them to remain on the list. Unless a black swan event such as a meteor heads our way this is what you have. Some problems have been grouped with the collateral issues associated with them, this may include the current "buzz words" used to describe their importance. Different people would group these issues in a variety of other ways and move about their priority. As always your comments are welcome.     

10.   Demographics of an aging population;   As the population grows older euthanasia and the quality of life will become an issue. This must be handled in a fair, honest, humane, and compassionate way. The alternative is to simply let many older people wither and die hungry while existing in pain and squalor.

9.  We must create an environment that allows and encourages people to develop fulfilling lives;  This means improving the educational system and having an opportunity to find fulfilling work, seek happiness and express their individuality. It also means ending corruption and extending equal protection and fairness under the law.

8.   Hunger and starvation;    Severe malnutrition can make life unbearable and because of it many people only go through the motions of being alive. People that are starving cannot learn and take a role in society. Starvation and addressing the need of basic sanitation must be addressed.

7.   Income inequality and economic stability;   The uber-rich should not become exempt from all common woes and untouchable. The uber-rich and political elite should not comprise a special class who are immune and able to ignore the rules of society. Nor should the masses be placed into a situation where they are deemed deserving of what fruit society creates merely by being born. Fairness in handling the world's economic systems and currencies that allow for a solid way to exchange goods and services is necessary or other world support systems will suffer or fail.

6.   Man's inability to take control of his future by creating responsive and responsible governments;   The masses have been lulled into complacency, in many ways we are all slaves, this is not a new role for man. But we can think and should make an effort to do so, we must push our chosen leaders to do the right thing and make long-term plans that are sustainable. We must shape our future and the values of the society in which we live.

5.   The last few years stand as proof of man's cruelty to man. Strife between religions and tribes must end;   We need to develop a new tolerance that allows people to live in peace. A safe place to live for a person and their family is one of man's most basic needs. The political elite must not be held harmless for the grief and death they cause over large swatches of mankind. War crimes cannot be tolerated. While this is easy to say deciding exactly who is responsible for these crimes is often easier said than done.

 4.    Wasting Earth's limited natural resources by not conserving and the continued destruction of our environment;   I contend that many of the "green solutions" being proposed such as ethanol fuel are not a solution at all and just ways for business to profit. A solution is not truly green unless the environmental cost of "maintaining" it is very low.

 3.    Pollution and the resulting climate change it may bring;   This is showing up in oceans that are sick and being depleted of life. This also may result in rising oceans and crop failures. Either scenario will mean massive suffering across the world and could tear the social fabric and alter our day to day lives.

 2.    Overpopulation;   This is the overriding problem facing Earth and the most difficult to address. If the problem of overpopulation is not addressed all the other problems on this list will most likely become much greater. Many people still rejoice in the idea that we should be "fruitful and multiply" ignoring or oblivious to the problems it creates in the long-run. The quality of life in many ways is more important than quantity.

 1.    Weapons of war and mass destruction;   This not only includes nuclear bombs and chemical weapons but drones and the killer robots now being developed. One big mistake or going down the wrong path in developing new weapons could change life as we know it!

While people and their families go about life each day having children and doing the things we all associate with our day to day existence most people concede that something is wrong with a world where many people lack even basic sanitation and watch their children die before the age of five. I'm not saying developed countries should give everything away or bring all the people of the world up to an American standard of living. It is not our responsibility to do so and probably impossible.

In my book, Advancing Time I highlight and bring focus to the massive changes that have taken place over the last two hundred and fifty years. History viewed in the framework of man's time on Earth forms the crux of my perspective. The oldest fully developed humans based on DNA research supports the theory that Africa was the area man first inhabited between 200,000 and 140,000 years ago. In 1800 the population of the world was around 900 million, by 1900 it had soared to 1.6 billion, since then it has exploded to over 7 billion.      

When you chronicle the journey from the beginning of man to our current state it becomes clear that the world has never before experienced such rapid change. This perspective helps us make sense of our fast changing chaotic world while illuminating and clarifying the responsibilities society faces. It is important we recognize this ever-quickening pace of change and keep in mind that if these problems are not addressed there may be no future for mankind or it may be much shorter and difficult than many people expect.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Relationships 101 - And Your City Park

If you are wondering about relationships and the glue that binds people together a good place to learn more about them is at a city park. As a society, we function better and achieve a higher level of productivity when couples are not poorly matched. Observing the actions of people at a public park is equivalent to taking a class in basic human interaction and can lead us to question the very nature of relationships or just as important the motivations behind them. You could call this learning experience "Relationships 101" and while it differs only slightly from watching people at a mall or other locations it is unique in that it often strips away much of the human facade making it harder to mask the truth by creating false purpose or diversions.

A Far Too Common Sight Is Couples Not Connecting
Observing people might give us a better clue as to how our culture and society might be failing in highlighting the importance of choosing a proper life partner. This also extends into how people choose to interact or why they take the path of solitude or loneliness. We should remember getting to a park often takes at least a little effort and most people with a park destination have given at least some thought as to what they will do when they get there. Weeks ago a small sign was placed near a favorite wedding spot for an event telling people to turn off their phones, it has since been removed, however, it might better have been left in place because in a park putting aside your phone does have merit or in the least garners some consideration.

A subject that is very interesting is what people do in parks, sadly in a world where people seem tethered to their phones far too many bring them into the sanctuary of nature. In parks, people scroll through their phones even while walking their dog, a baby or child even riding a bike. At times you see a couple and both of them are busy fondling a phone and not to take pictures but what appears as an effort to ignore the person they are with or escape the moment. Needless to say, some activities are based on two people having a romantic or close one on one connection and sadly some of these people seem rather unconnected or sporting a connection of convenience that gives off a vibe that screams neither love or even like. This underlines the idea that some "mismatches" should never occur and prove harmful over time.

Some Couples Appear "Mismatched"
The direction I have chosen to spin this article towards is the all important area where most of us go to chose a love interest of the opposite sex, however, it might also apply in cases where a "partner" of the same sex is determined to be a better match. While pondering relationships and what constitutes a real life attraction between the various couples wandering through the park I noticed many appear to have little in common with the person they were with. This of course was based on things like their interaction or body language and while opposites are said to attract these same "opposites" may be signs of an unhealthy union and eventually unite only to generate unhappiness. The bottom-line is relationships can be very difficult.

As I sat on the park bench with the person I considered my significant other what I saw caused me to wonder whether these couples had simply settled or were brought together by some other force or consideration. This question also arose when talking about a dysfunctional couple I had the misfortune of knowing that was heading towards marriage, in this case, I wondered which of the misfits was getting the worse of the deal. Even before tying the knot the man was voicing concerns his wife to be was overbearing and controlled every dime he earned, and he saw these as only two of her many unendearing qualities, to me these served as a red flag indicating it was a relationship forged in hell. I understand people become involved with others for many reasons but the motivation or pay-back from such a union does not seem promising.

Women May Be More Willing To Settle
The key question I found myself asking is who holds most cards in a relationship? We live in a world where men and women still have different cores and values and even as these get blurred by modern morality, people born at different times have different ways of viewing events. Are men or women more inclined to settle and accept a mediocre partner that is middling or unremarkable so they won't be alone? While the situation varies greatly from person to person my conclusion, unscientific or backed up by any polls, is that women are more prone to resort to simply take a partner because they are likely to be inflicted with the need to not be alone or desperate to not come across as unwanted.

Historically for men sex has generally rated high as a driving force in relationships. As they age men seem to be less social than women and the sexual motive tends to diminish as they find other interest to occupy their time, the fact that men are less social tends to feed into their ability to seal off emotions. Women on the other hand still are viewed by not only themselves but others as being more nurturing and caring in a way that ties them to their feelings and the desire to share those feelings with others. In the need not to be alone it is possible women win hands down, the bonus for all the miserable and flawed men who roam the earth it should allow them to rejoice in that it still leaves hope that somebody wants, or at least will be willing to settle for them.