After several recent hits the Obama team is hungry for a win. The Iran nuclear negotiations that have finely ended in an agreement will be spun to constitute such a victory. With Kerry saying things like "no deal is better then a bad deal" six world powers reached an interim agreement with Iran on its disputed nuclear program after days of talks in Geneva. American officials said it was the first time in nearly a decade that
an international agreement had been reached to halt much of Iran’s
nuclear program and ratchet back some elements of it. The goal of the accord, which is to last six months, is to give
international negotiators time to pursue a more comprehensive pact and ensure that Iran’s nuclear program could be used only for peaceful purposes.
Shortly after the agreement was signed in the Palace of
Nations in Geneva, President Obama, speaking from the State Dining Room
in the White House, hailed it as the most “significant and tangible”
progress of a diplomatic campaign that began when he took office. In
the six-month interim deal, Iran agreed to limit nuclear activities in
return for relief from economic sanctions. The United States agreed to provide
up to $7 billion in relief with roughly $4.2
billion coming from oil revenue that has been frozen in foreign banks. President Obama called the agreement
"an important first step" but said sanctions can be reapplied if the
Iranians violate it. Financially this is a "big deal" for Iran that is desperate for hard currency.
The sanction relief can be accomplished by executive order,
allowing the Obama administration to make the deal without Congress where there is strong criticism of any agreement
that does not fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Critics point out the fact that the accord would only pause the Iranian program and say it will reward Iran for institutionalizing the
status quo. Several U.S. senators, both Democrat and Republican have voiced
displeasure with the parameters of the agreement, arguing that
the U.S. and its partners are offering too much for something short of a
full freeze on uranium enrichment. Those who are skeptical and view this as a weak agreement say Obama has again backed down again.
Mr. Obama attempted to address those concerns insisting that the
easing of sanctions could be reversed if Iran failed to reach a final
agreement or reneged on the terms of this one. “Nothing will be agreed to unless everything is agreed to,” he said noting the qualms of Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf
allies of the United States by saying they “had good reason to be
skeptical of Iran’s intentions.” Obama insisted he had a “profound
responsibility” to test the possibilities of a diplomatic solution. Administration officials
said the deal addresses several of Israel's most serious concerns about
Iran's nuclear program including Iran's growing supply of 20%
uranium and the Arak reactor coming online. Israeli Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz said there is no
reason for celebration insisting the deal is based on
"Iranian deception and self-delusion."
Some experts, including a former official who has worked on the
Iranian issue for the White House, said it was unlikely that Iran’s
supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would ever close the door on the
option to develop nuclear weapons. Only last Wednesday in a speech Iran's supreme leader underlined the position of the old guard and muddied the water with saber rattling rhetoric saying that Iran would never compromise on "red lines." Since then Tehran has
publicly reverted to its original stance that the six powers must
recognize uranium enrichment as Iran's right, despite strong opposition
by Israel and within the U.S. Congress.
This initial six-month agreement is likely to
be followed by a series of partial agreements that constrain Iran’s
nuclear activities but do not definitively solve the nuclear issues.We must understand that a freeze may not really be a freeze. On the contentious issue of the heavy water reactor Iran is building
near Arak, which could produce plutonium and therefore another path to a
bomb, Iran agreed not to produce fuel for the plant, install additional
reactor components there or put the plant into operation. However Iran is not required to dismantle the facility. To guard against cheating, international monitors would be allowed to
visit the Natanz enrichment facility and the underground nuclear
enrichment plant at Fordo daily to check film from
cameras installed on site.
Iran has insisted on certain sovereign rights to pursue programs within their borders throughout almost a decade of fruitless negotiations. Last weekend Iran indicated that it was ready to sign a deal that does not expressly rule out that right. Iranian hard-liners are suspicious of talk of nuclear compromise
since moderate President Hassan Rouhani took office in September,
fearing his team will give not get enough in terms of sanctions relief
over the six-months of any first-stage agreement. For the world the bottom-line remains that if Iran does not halt and reverse its course any agreement means nothing. Iran can ramp up its plans to develop a nuclear bomb at off site locations. In the long-run Iran wins. If current trends continues in the future Iran looks to face a defanged and economically weakened America with less power in the region.
Footnote; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a
separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems
facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live
in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to
react and set straight the mistakes of our past. As you might expect weapons of mass destruction rates fairly high on the list that can be found
below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Saturday, November 23, 2013
We are on the path to "Lost Decades"
We are on the path to "Lost Decades" is a thought I found myself pondering the other day while cutting drywall. Doing manual labor has the great benefit of giving one time to think, just remember to measure twice before cutting. Manual labor is generally pure and honest. This is especially true if it is on your own project because you have skin in the game. If you mess up you have the honor of paying the piper in some way or form. Japan is the poster child and living proof that low-interest rates do not guarantee economic growth and prosperity.
Years ago before the "Bernanke has all the answers" era, many of us criticized Japan for failing to own its problems. Many people thought Japan should face up to the mess it had created and do the right thing. Broadly accepted was the concept that only by letting its zombie banks and industries fail could Japan clean out the system and move forward. Instead, the Government of Japan ran huge deficits and ran up massive debt. The country languished and avoided disaster only by the fact that it enjoyed a large trade surplus year after year. Today that trade surplus has vanished but the massive debt remains.
While they claim otherwise, in many ways Bernanke and the Fed have put America on a path that mirrors the same unsuccessful path taken by Japan. A path that avoids real reform and bails out the very people that caused many of our problems. Bernanke has upped the ante by setting the bailout and money printing machines on high and flooding America and the world with QE. By selling other central bankers on this solution he has taken the lead in an experiment that is losing traction. Real momentum seems to ebb shortly after each new wave of stimulus and another fix seems to constantly be needed.
Two key differences between America and Japan must be considered. First America does not enjoy a huge trade surplus to offset our deficit spending. This means we are putting ourselves deeper and deeper into the hole and our debt has ballooned. For years Japan offset the government deficit with money coming in from foreign trade. The other very important difference is the American dollar is the world's reserve currency. Changes in the value of the dollar are thus magnified in importance and do not just affect America but the whole world. All the people and countries that hold dollars can at any time greatly affect our ability to do business as usual.
As we measure the results of the Bernanke policy it seems they may not be much different than those achieved by Japan over the last few decades. In many ways, our course is very similar to the one that Japan embarked on and is now being blamed and labeled as the reason Japan remains mired in slow growth and deflation. Bernanke has endorsed and encouraged Japan to step on the gas and print more money until they lower the value of the yen and force inflation to set them on a path forward. This is akin to a doctor telling a patient to double or triple his dosage when the medicine does not work. The policymakers in Japan should be careful what they wish for as they may find they have stepped onto a very slippery slope.
Footnote; A post outlining how this shift in policy may affect Japan is below. If correct it will have major implications.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html
Footnote #2; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to react and set straight the mistakes of our past. The link can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
Years ago before the "Bernanke has all the answers" era, many of us criticized Japan for failing to own its problems. Many people thought Japan should face up to the mess it had created and do the right thing. Broadly accepted was the concept that only by letting its zombie banks and industries fail could Japan clean out the system and move forward. Instead, the Government of Japan ran huge deficits and ran up massive debt. The country languished and avoided disaster only by the fact that it enjoyed a large trade surplus year after year. Today that trade surplus has vanished but the massive debt remains.
While they claim otherwise, in many ways Bernanke and the Fed have put America on a path that mirrors the same unsuccessful path taken by Japan. A path that avoids real reform and bails out the very people that caused many of our problems. Bernanke has upped the ante by setting the bailout and money printing machines on high and flooding America and the world with QE. By selling other central bankers on this solution he has taken the lead in an experiment that is losing traction. Real momentum seems to ebb shortly after each new wave of stimulus and another fix seems to constantly be needed.
Two key differences between America and Japan must be considered. First America does not enjoy a huge trade surplus to offset our deficit spending. This means we are putting ourselves deeper and deeper into the hole and our debt has ballooned. For years Japan offset the government deficit with money coming in from foreign trade. The other very important difference is the American dollar is the world's reserve currency. Changes in the value of the dollar are thus magnified in importance and do not just affect America but the whole world. All the people and countries that hold dollars can at any time greatly affect our ability to do business as usual.
As we measure the results of the Bernanke policy it seems they may not be much different than those achieved by Japan over the last few decades. In many ways, our course is very similar to the one that Japan embarked on and is now being blamed and labeled as the reason Japan remains mired in slow growth and deflation. Bernanke has endorsed and encouraged Japan to step on the gas and print more money until they lower the value of the yen and force inflation to set them on a path forward. This is akin to a doctor telling a patient to double or triple his dosage when the medicine does not work. The policymakers in Japan should be careful what they wish for as they may find they have stepped onto a very slippery slope.
Footnote; A post outlining how this shift in policy may affect Japan is below. If correct it will have major implications.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html
Footnote #2; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to react and set straight the mistakes of our past. The link can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
Thursday, November 21, 2013
China Drowning In Overcapacity And Debt
Chinese Communist Party officials have announced they will pursue
significant reforms
under the new president and premier during the coming decade. The devil
will be in the details as to how these reforms will be implemented. And
those are lacking. So far, allowing the market to play a "decisive" role
in the economy has emerged as a message in the state media. The details
of their new economic policies are lacking but in the coming weeks and
months, the official media is expected to divulge more of what is planned
by the Chinese leaders. They must quickly address the issue of a glut of new factories recently built but sitting empty for lack of demand
Fast growth tends to mask flaws and weakness within a system, and China has been growing like a weed for years. To make things worse many of the investment decisions were driven by politics and often influenced by corruption. This has created massive overcapacity. Money has been poorly allocated and often shoveled into deep holes like ghost cities and bridges to nowhere. Premier Li Keqiang has pledged to open the economy to market forces and strip power from the government in a process he conceded would be “very painful.” In July, he vowed to curb the overcapacity which the government blames for driving down prices, eroding profits and generating pollution.
The introduction of market forces into the economy by Chinese leaders would be key to achieving necessary "breakthrough" reforms. These involve reforming capital markets, labor in the form of improving social welfare, and land. Basically, the factors of production all need reform and much of it requires raising productivity in order to support growth. This will be no easy task for any economy, much less one where powerful state-owned enterprises dominate the financial sector and key parts of the economy. This is a hard change in direction, for years many of these companies have operated on razor-thin margins and been focused on expansion with the goal of creating jobs.
Currently, a 6.6 trillion dollar spending spree used as stimulus to combat global economic slowdown is coming back to haunt China. This has greatly expanded credit and created huge overcapacity during the past five years. A massive debt crisis now looms in the offing. At stake are trillions of yuan in bank loans that companies producing everything from ships to steel to solar power are struggling to repay as the world’s second-largest economy is in the midst of a major slowdown and the weakest annual growth since 1999. An example of the problems and overcapacity this has created is a company many Americans have never heard of named Rongsheng. This company is seeking a government bailout after accumulating 25 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) in unpaid loans as of June.
Rongsheng has been crushed by over-investment gone bust. After watching its assets jump sevenfold between 2007 and 2012 when government-directed lending led to a shipbuilding boom it is now drowning in debt with loans outstanding to the Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank Corp, which is a government-owned bank set up to provide financial support at a low cost to companies and industries endorsed by the state. Rongsheng may post a second consecutive loss of 2 billion yuan this year and a 1.1 billion yuan loss in 2014. The company has let go, 38,000 employees, almost 80 percent of its workers over the past two years.
Rongsheng now relies on its remaining 8,000 workers to build the world’s biggest cargo ships for a Brazilian iron-ore producer and Oman Shipping Co., as well as smaller vessels and oil tankers. Workers in its shipyards, as well as the office staff in its Shanghai office, have had their salaries delayed by as much as two months recently. The company and the banks involved are both are tight lipped about the situation. The problem is Rongsheng is one of many shipbuilders in this situation. The same is true in much of the economy, China has built like demand was unlimited. Industries such as steel and cement also stand out and have been named by the State Council as facing a “serious” glut. China’s economic planners have sought to rein in the steel industry since at least 2004
Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," said China may only be growing 2 or 3 percent and if you strip out all the construction going into ghost cities and "high-speed rail lines to nowhere," the economy may not be growing at all. China claimed 7.7 percent growth for the first quarter but when you look at electricity, by far the most reliable economic indicator of Chinese economic activity, that grew 2.9 percent in Q1. When you consider that the growth of GDP is historically 85 percent of the growth of electricity, you're talking 2.5 percent (growth)." Many of those loans used to finance the construction of those ghost cities and idle train lines may never get repaid. Instead, banks continue to roll over these loans-many made to state-owned companies.
A huge issue is the risk and wild card China poses going forward, If they were to use foreign exchange reserves to recapitalize the banks this could have nasty unintended consequences. By converting their U.S. Treasury holdings to yuan they could "explosively increase the money supply" and at the same time torpedo their currency. This could unleash inflation creating a major crisis. For some international investors, China uncertainty has been reason to avoid the country's equities altogether. One thing is certain and that is the level of credit growth in China is unsustainable. There is bound to be a significant contraction in credit and most likely in growth. Of course not all China watchers are bearish as I and many expect China to muddle through.
Footnote; Please feel free to explore the blog archives and as always you comments are encouraged. For more on China see any of the four post below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/china-and-great-credit-trap.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/04/china-and-corruption.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/02/china-bubble-yes-it-is.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/09/china-made-by-america.html
Footnote #2; Please note you can thank the problems in China for keeping import prices low and all many of the "bargain" prices in stores this holiday season. This has tamped down inflation but for how long?
Fast growth tends to mask flaws and weakness within a system, and China has been growing like a weed for years. To make things worse many of the investment decisions were driven by politics and often influenced by corruption. This has created massive overcapacity. Money has been poorly allocated and often shoveled into deep holes like ghost cities and bridges to nowhere. Premier Li Keqiang has pledged to open the economy to market forces and strip power from the government in a process he conceded would be “very painful.” In July, he vowed to curb the overcapacity which the government blames for driving down prices, eroding profits and generating pollution.
The introduction of market forces into the economy by Chinese leaders would be key to achieving necessary "breakthrough" reforms. These involve reforming capital markets, labor in the form of improving social welfare, and land. Basically, the factors of production all need reform and much of it requires raising productivity in order to support growth. This will be no easy task for any economy, much less one where powerful state-owned enterprises dominate the financial sector and key parts of the economy. This is a hard change in direction, for years many of these companies have operated on razor-thin margins and been focused on expansion with the goal of creating jobs.
Currently, a 6.6 trillion dollar spending spree used as stimulus to combat global economic slowdown is coming back to haunt China. This has greatly expanded credit and created huge overcapacity during the past five years. A massive debt crisis now looms in the offing. At stake are trillions of yuan in bank loans that companies producing everything from ships to steel to solar power are struggling to repay as the world’s second-largest economy is in the midst of a major slowdown and the weakest annual growth since 1999. An example of the problems and overcapacity this has created is a company many Americans have never heard of named Rongsheng. This company is seeking a government bailout after accumulating 25 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) in unpaid loans as of June.
Rongsheng has been crushed by over-investment gone bust. After watching its assets jump sevenfold between 2007 and 2012 when government-directed lending led to a shipbuilding boom it is now drowning in debt with loans outstanding to the Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank Corp, which is a government-owned bank set up to provide financial support at a low cost to companies and industries endorsed by the state. Rongsheng may post a second consecutive loss of 2 billion yuan this year and a 1.1 billion yuan loss in 2014. The company has let go, 38,000 employees, almost 80 percent of its workers over the past two years.
Rongsheng now relies on its remaining 8,000 workers to build the world’s biggest cargo ships for a Brazilian iron-ore producer and Oman Shipping Co., as well as smaller vessels and oil tankers. Workers in its shipyards, as well as the office staff in its Shanghai office, have had their salaries delayed by as much as two months recently. The company and the banks involved are both are tight lipped about the situation. The problem is Rongsheng is one of many shipbuilders in this situation. The same is true in much of the economy, China has built like demand was unlimited. Industries such as steel and cement also stand out and have been named by the State Council as facing a “serious” glut. China’s economic planners have sought to rein in the steel industry since at least 2004
Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," said China may only be growing 2 or 3 percent and if you strip out all the construction going into ghost cities and "high-speed rail lines to nowhere," the economy may not be growing at all. China claimed 7.7 percent growth for the first quarter but when you look at electricity, by far the most reliable economic indicator of Chinese economic activity, that grew 2.9 percent in Q1. When you consider that the growth of GDP is historically 85 percent of the growth of electricity, you're talking 2.5 percent (growth)." Many of those loans used to finance the construction of those ghost cities and idle train lines may never get repaid. Instead, banks continue to roll over these loans-many made to state-owned companies.
A huge issue is the risk and wild card China poses going forward, If they were to use foreign exchange reserves to recapitalize the banks this could have nasty unintended consequences. By converting their U.S. Treasury holdings to yuan they could "explosively increase the money supply" and at the same time torpedo their currency. This could unleash inflation creating a major crisis. For some international investors, China uncertainty has been reason to avoid the country's equities altogether. One thing is certain and that is the level of credit growth in China is unsustainable. There is bound to be a significant contraction in credit and most likely in growth. Of course not all China watchers are bearish as I and many expect China to muddle through.
Footnote; Please feel free to explore the blog archives and as always you comments are encouraged. For more on China see any of the four post below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/china-and-great-credit-trap.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/04/china-and-corruption.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/02/china-bubble-yes-it-is.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/09/china-made-by-america.html
Footnote #2; Please note you can thank the problems in China for keeping import prices low and all many of the "bargain" prices in stores this holiday season. This has tamped down inflation but for how long?
Monday, November 18, 2013
Central Banks Balance On The Inflation Fence
It appears the central banks of the world have made the crux of their existence a balancing act. You can almost imagine these bankers standing atop a fence. On one side lays a field of inflation and on the other a deep pit of deflation. A new round of easing by central banks to combat a slowdown in growth
may again be in the cards but do not be surprised if this time it is less successful. The magic of this policy is losing its luster.
Recently the European Central Bank cut its key rate in a surprise decision some investors say was intended in part to curb the euro after it soared to the strongest since 2011. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna. New Zealand may delay rate increases to temper its dollar. To top it off Australia warned the Aussie is “uncomfortably high.”
Actions from the central banks is throwing more fuel on the fire causing the currency wars to heat up. This move comes barely two months after the Group of 20 nations pledged to “refrain from competitive devaluation” because of its destabilizing effect. With inflation slowing and the outlook for the economy being downgraded by the International Monetary Fund countries and central banks seem to be revisiting policies that tend to boost competitiveness through weaker currencies.
The polices of lower interest rates and pumping money into the system has not created as much growth as hoped but it has brought with it major market distortions. Money has resisted flowing into the things that would bring a recovery and have flowed into the stock markets, financials, and areas of speculation. Welcome to the world of the "global economy" where open borders dilute efforts to concentrate policies to a specific area. Cross border flows cause such efforts to produce results similar to pouring water into a leaking bucket.
One of the main reasons the stock market has benefited is that it is highly liquid and easy to enter and exit. Unlike real estate that has a high bar of entry with many fees and often taking months or even years to sell, stocks can be exited in a blink of an eye. This is a big advantage in uncertain times when valuations can change rather quickly. The wild card in this is inflation. Currently velocity (the speed at which money flows through the economy) is very low but if it rapidly increases more money will be chasing the same amount of goods resulting in more inflation.
The danger is that once inflation takes root it can take on a life of its own and feed on itself creating a hard to control cycle. How the central banks can get off this fence is the issue and if it can be done in a safe manner is yet to be determined. One thing is clear, we cannot remain on this artificial growth path forever. We have seen much of the effect wear off from prior bouts of easing, in the past each wave acted as a tailwind pushing us towards recovery. Now as central banks begin to taper and resume more normal policies many economist fear this will become a major drag on the economy going forward.
Footnote; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to react and set straight the mistakes of our past. The link can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
Recently the European Central Bank cut its key rate in a surprise decision some investors say was intended in part to curb the euro after it soared to the strongest since 2011. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna. New Zealand may delay rate increases to temper its dollar. To top it off Australia warned the Aussie is “uncomfortably high.”
Actions from the central banks is throwing more fuel on the fire causing the currency wars to heat up. This move comes barely two months after the Group of 20 nations pledged to “refrain from competitive devaluation” because of its destabilizing effect. With inflation slowing and the outlook for the economy being downgraded by the International Monetary Fund countries and central banks seem to be revisiting policies that tend to boost competitiveness through weaker currencies.
The polices of lower interest rates and pumping money into the system has not created as much growth as hoped but it has brought with it major market distortions. Money has resisted flowing into the things that would bring a recovery and have flowed into the stock markets, financials, and areas of speculation. Welcome to the world of the "global economy" where open borders dilute efforts to concentrate policies to a specific area. Cross border flows cause such efforts to produce results similar to pouring water into a leaking bucket.
One of the main reasons the stock market has benefited is that it is highly liquid and easy to enter and exit. Unlike real estate that has a high bar of entry with many fees and often taking months or even years to sell, stocks can be exited in a blink of an eye. This is a big advantage in uncertain times when valuations can change rather quickly. The wild card in this is inflation. Currently velocity (the speed at which money flows through the economy) is very low but if it rapidly increases more money will be chasing the same amount of goods resulting in more inflation.
The danger is that once inflation takes root it can take on a life of its own and feed on itself creating a hard to control cycle. How the central banks can get off this fence is the issue and if it can be done in a safe manner is yet to be determined. One thing is clear, we cannot remain on this artificial growth path forever. We have seen much of the effect wear off from prior bouts of easing, in the past each wave acted as a tailwind pushing us towards recovery. Now as central banks begin to taper and resume more normal policies many economist fear this will become a major drag on the economy going forward.
Footnote; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to react and set straight the mistakes of our past. The link can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
The Crux of our Economic Woes
The crux of our economic woes lay in the fact that over the last several decades we have created entitlement societies on the back of the industrial revolution,
technological
advantages, capital accumulated from the colonial
era, and the domination of global finances. Promises were made on the
assumption that those advantages would continue in both Europe
and US, and that ever greater prosperity and entitlements would be
sustained through debt financed consumption growth. In that eerie
fantasy world, debt fueled consumption was to be the catalyst to bring
about ever more growth.
Now reality has begun to come into focus and it is becoming apparent that this is unsustainable. The entitlements and promises that have piled up have become overwhelming. The populations of the worlds most advanced nations were led to believe the good times would never end, but suddenly their core advantages in technology, capital, and productivity have started to erode. Now they find they are lagging behind several emerging countries. Manufacturing jobs have steadily gone elsewhere, replaced by low skilled service jobs, this has removed the supports from our debt fueled prosperity showing it to be unsustainable and flawed.
While told that we were moving up the value chain in reality the opposite was true. The trends of prior years coupled with debt fueled prosperity and consumption growth led many to believe that their future would be secure. By moving towards "higher value adding activities" we would continue to lead the emerging and developing countries. This has proved false and the economies built on those false assumptions are now crashing down. Merely addressing the symptoms of our malaise as "financial problems", a tactic being tried by leaders, central banks, and the IMF, will only raise false hope. In the end it will not avert the economic and political upheaval before us.
Debt has repeatedly caused problems throughout history, but its potential for disrupting our economic system has grown tremendously because new technologies have allowed us to weave and create a framework of relationships that increase the likely-hood of contagion. This growing web of interdependence leaves us vulnerable to a failure of the very systems on which we have come to depend. This flawed concept has now become the bedrock and foundation of our society. When coupled with the issue of our unsustainable economic and population growth it is clear we are reaching a point where many of the problems we face can no longer be pushed forward.
Denying these problems will result in creating a precarious situation that requires a massive shift in future lifestyles over a very short and painful time-frame. The failure for countries to address their long term debt problems coupled with the number of growing people nearing retirement with little in the way of saving bodes poorly for the economy going forward. Big changes in Medicare that are occurring under the radar also should raise concern. If and when a deep hit to the system takes place we could suffer the triple threat, and as confidence falls the credibility, and the competence of those in charge will be called into question. If this happens the fabric of society may be severely challenged.
Footnote; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to react and set straight the mistakes of our past. The link can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
Now reality has begun to come into focus and it is becoming apparent that this is unsustainable. The entitlements and promises that have piled up have become overwhelming. The populations of the worlds most advanced nations were led to believe the good times would never end, but suddenly their core advantages in technology, capital, and productivity have started to erode. Now they find they are lagging behind several emerging countries. Manufacturing jobs have steadily gone elsewhere, replaced by low skilled service jobs, this has removed the supports from our debt fueled prosperity showing it to be unsustainable and flawed.
While told that we were moving up the value chain in reality the opposite was true. The trends of prior years coupled with debt fueled prosperity and consumption growth led many to believe that their future would be secure. By moving towards "higher value adding activities" we would continue to lead the emerging and developing countries. This has proved false and the economies built on those false assumptions are now crashing down. Merely addressing the symptoms of our malaise as "financial problems", a tactic being tried by leaders, central banks, and the IMF, will only raise false hope. In the end it will not avert the economic and political upheaval before us.
Debt has repeatedly caused problems throughout history, but its potential for disrupting our economic system has grown tremendously because new technologies have allowed us to weave and create a framework of relationships that increase the likely-hood of contagion. This growing web of interdependence leaves us vulnerable to a failure of the very systems on which we have come to depend. This flawed concept has now become the bedrock and foundation of our society. When coupled with the issue of our unsustainable economic and population growth it is clear we are reaching a point where many of the problems we face can no longer be pushed forward.
Denying these problems will result in creating a precarious situation that requires a massive shift in future lifestyles over a very short and painful time-frame. The failure for countries to address their long term debt problems coupled with the number of growing people nearing retirement with little in the way of saving bodes poorly for the economy going forward. Big changes in Medicare that are occurring under the radar also should raise concern. If and when a deep hit to the system takes place we could suffer the triple threat, and as confidence falls the credibility, and the competence of those in charge will be called into question. If this happens the fabric of society may be severely challenged.
Footnote; As always your comments are welcome and encouraged. In a separate post I chronicle the 10 most pressing and important problems facing our world, these are increasingly more menacing in that we live in a rapidly changing world that gives us little time and less room to react and set straight the mistakes of our past. The link can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-worlds-10-worst-problems.html
Saturday, November 16, 2013
USPS and Amazon another unholy alliance.
I scream foul! Why has the USPS made a special deal with Amazon to do Sunday deliveries in two cities? This is wrong on several counts. The first and biggest reason is that the USPS is an extension of the US Government and a money losing one at that. Another problem is this hurts all the smaller mom and pop businesses and brick and mortar stores in a community. This makes government an alliance to a company built on exploiting those who provide jobs to us on the most basic level. Before government decides to embark on such a mission a debate should occur as to the values we hold dear.
Amazon has used every trick of self promotion to propel itself forward. Few details have been made available on this "special deal" but this small development and non game changer once again gave the illusion that Amazon was rolling forward with the full blessing of the American government and a mandate of society. This is not the case, Amazon for years has used a money losing USPS as the final leg of many of their rural deliveries while at the same time gaining from an unlevel playing field resulting from not charging sales tax in many areas. Note, Amazon is not a big job creator, it is a job"shifter" and often it is shifting people into low paying and uninteresting jobs where they will someday be replaced by robots.
While this arrangement may add revenue to the postal service it still is not the job of the government to compete with private delivery companies such as UPS and Fed-X. Claims that the USPS makes money on these deliveries offsetting other loses does not justify such intrusion by government into the private sector. This is more proof that President Obama does not understand business and basic economics. Attacking other parts of the economy cannot fix a USPS that cannot even drop something as unnecessary as Saturday delivery. We should be fixing the imbalances within the post office by cutting wasteful services and adjusting prices rather then by expanding into the private sector.
Do not be surprised if some type of legal action is taken to roll back this kind of government subsidized competition. In the city where I live with some 250,000 other people city government in their wisdom has leased out some surplus office space for a fraction of current rates. I recently saw a tenant move from one of my buildings to this city subsidized space, this means I lose income while my property taxes have increased to pay their rent. This is not the way to help an economy grow and remain healthy, again do not think of this as a victory for freedom and commerce, if it were the USPS would not be involved.
Footnote; Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged. Below are links to tho other articles related to this subject,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/amazon-is-not-our-friend.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-amazon-wont-tell-you-2012-06-26
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/04/gutless-senate-avoids-postal-service.html
Amazon has used every trick of self promotion to propel itself forward. Few details have been made available on this "special deal" but this small development and non game changer once again gave the illusion that Amazon was rolling forward with the full blessing of the American government and a mandate of society. This is not the case, Amazon for years has used a money losing USPS as the final leg of many of their rural deliveries while at the same time gaining from an unlevel playing field resulting from not charging sales tax in many areas. Note, Amazon is not a big job creator, it is a job"shifter" and often it is shifting people into low paying and uninteresting jobs where they will someday be replaced by robots.
While this arrangement may add revenue to the postal service it still is not the job of the government to compete with private delivery companies such as UPS and Fed-X. Claims that the USPS makes money on these deliveries offsetting other loses does not justify such intrusion by government into the private sector. This is more proof that President Obama does not understand business and basic economics. Attacking other parts of the economy cannot fix a USPS that cannot even drop something as unnecessary as Saturday delivery. We should be fixing the imbalances within the post office by cutting wasteful services and adjusting prices rather then by expanding into the private sector.
Do not be surprised if some type of legal action is taken to roll back this kind of government subsidized competition. In the city where I live with some 250,000 other people city government in their wisdom has leased out some surplus office space for a fraction of current rates. I recently saw a tenant move from one of my buildings to this city subsidized space, this means I lose income while my property taxes have increased to pay their rent. This is not the way to help an economy grow and remain healthy, again do not think of this as a victory for freedom and commerce, if it were the USPS would not be involved.
Footnote; Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged. Below are links to tho other articles related to this subject,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/amazon-is-not-our-friend.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-amazon-wont-tell-you-2012-06-26
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/04/gutless-senate-avoids-postal-service.html
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Obamacare Starts Out looking Very Ugly
What has been described as a nightmare and a train wreak continues to develop before our eyes. The latest furor broke out this week concerning the millions of Americans who
currently have health coverage under individual or small group plans, many started
getting notices from insurance companies that the new Obamacare regulations mean
that their current plans are being dropped. The focus appears to be on easing the impact for a specific group:
people whose policies have been canceled and who don't qualify for tax
credits to offset higher premiums. Seeking damage control the administration has countered with spin, and babble. Adding to the roll-out woes a Federal US appeals court last week ruled that the Obamacare birth control mandate is unconstitutional.
A president can't just pick up the phone and order the Treasury to cut checks for people suffering from insurance premium sticker shock. Adjustments to subsidies would have to be authorized by law and no easy fix is in sight that would not be "budget busting" and halt Obamacare in its tracks. President Barack Obama says he'll do everything he can to help people coping with health insurance cancellations, but legally and practically his options appear limited. That means the latest political problem engulfing Obama's health care overhaul will not be resolved quickly, cleanly or completely. White House deputy spokesman Josh Earnest said Friday that the president has asked his team to look at administrative fixes to help people whose plans are being canceled as a result of new federal coverage rules. Many people see this as a fig leaf and more babble to soften calm the anger over what they see as a flat out lie from the mouth of the President.
As this unwinds several things are becoming crystal clear, last week hundreds of thousands of cancellation letters went out to people who had been assured over a dozen times by the president that "If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan. Period." The cancellations lay bare the reality of Obamacare and are irrefutable evidence that President Obama's repeated you-keep-your-coverage claim was false. Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler gave the president's claim four Pinocchios. Noses don't come any longer. Obama, in an NBC interview Thursday, said "I am sorry" to people who are losing coverage and had relied on his assurances that if they liked their plan, they could keep it. This doesn't help if you are one of the many now forced to pay hundreds more each month for coverage.
The new White House spin is that the canceled plans were substandard and the new mandatory, often costlier, plans will be better once the exchange website works, that is. Secretary Sebelius apologized for the faulty website, but not for mass cancellations. A recent speech in Boston by the President drew comparisons between the Massachusetts law and the problem-plagued Affordable Care Act. During his speech, Obama acknowledged the problems with Obamacare and apologized for his clunky rollout. “There’s no denying it, right now the website is too slow, too many people have gotten stuck and I’m not happy about it,” Obama said. Talking about the troubled launch of Obamacare he cited the slow start of Massachusetts healthcare law that Mitt Romney as governor, signed in 2006.
Romney, who as the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee ran in part on repealing ObamaCare, emerged from his post-election private life to counter the White House message and distance himself from the Obamacare feasco. “In the years since the Massachusetts health care law went into effect nothing has changed my view that a plan crafted to fit the unique circumstances of a single state should not be grafted onto the entire country,” he tweeted. “Health reform is best crafted by states with bipartisan support and input from its employers, as we did, without raising taxes, and by carefully phasing it in to avoid the type of disruptions we are seeing nationally.”
The White House needs 7 million healthy young people to join the health care exchanges within the first year of the law to keep premiums low for everyone under the Affordable Care Act. Many people see this botched roll-out of the Affordable Care Act or ‘Obamacare’ as an opening for Republicans to win over Hispanic “millennials” that make up 20 percent of those age18-to-29. They are this generation’s largest minority and as a whole their families are the most uninsured in the United States. In fact, one-third of the nation’s 48 million uninsured are Latinos. After more than a month of inoperable exchange websites, hundreds of thousands of people getting booted off their current health insurance plans and a congressional grilling of Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, many are starting to see this goal as unreachable.
Currently this law designed to cover the uninsured is throwing far more people off their insurance than it can possibly be signing up on the nonfunctioning insurance exchanges. Indeed, most of the 19 million people with individual insurance will have to find new and likely more expensive coverage. And that doesn't even include the additional millions who are sure to lose their employer-provided coverage. That's a lot of people. Perhaps Obama didn't know. maybe he was as surprised by this as he claims to have been by the IRS scandal, The Associated Press and James Rosen phone logs, the failure of the Obamacare website, the premeditation of the Benghazi attacks, and the tapping of the German Chancellor's phone.
"We canceled your plan because it was substandard" followed by "we have a better idea" can be translated into: Sure, you liked your policy, but you don't know what you need. What you really need is what our experts have determined must be in every plan. So a couple in their 60s must buy maternity care, a teetotaler substance abuse treatment, and a healthy 28-year-old with perfectly appropriate catastrophic insurance must pay for coverage for which he has no use. Fact is these required bells and whistles aren't there as voter-pleasing freebies. The planners knew all along that by forcing insurance buyers to overpay for stuff they don't need, that money can subsidize other people. The light of day is showing Obamacare is not about healthcare, it is a massive transfer of wealth through hidden taxes, penalties, mandates and coverage requirements that yield a surplus of overpayments.
Footnote; This post dovetails with many of my recent writings, for more I might suggest reading the articles below. Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/flaws-in-big-government-concept.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/obamacare-means-partime-work.html
A president can't just pick up the phone and order the Treasury to cut checks for people suffering from insurance premium sticker shock. Adjustments to subsidies would have to be authorized by law and no easy fix is in sight that would not be "budget busting" and halt Obamacare in its tracks. President Barack Obama says he'll do everything he can to help people coping with health insurance cancellations, but legally and practically his options appear limited. That means the latest political problem engulfing Obama's health care overhaul will not be resolved quickly, cleanly or completely. White House deputy spokesman Josh Earnest said Friday that the president has asked his team to look at administrative fixes to help people whose plans are being canceled as a result of new federal coverage rules. Many people see this as a fig leaf and more babble to soften calm the anger over what they see as a flat out lie from the mouth of the President.
As this unwinds several things are becoming crystal clear, last week hundreds of thousands of cancellation letters went out to people who had been assured over a dozen times by the president that "If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan. Period." The cancellations lay bare the reality of Obamacare and are irrefutable evidence that President Obama's repeated you-keep-your-coverage claim was false. Washington Post fact-checker Glenn Kessler gave the president's claim four Pinocchios. Noses don't come any longer. Obama, in an NBC interview Thursday, said "I am sorry" to people who are losing coverage and had relied on his assurances that if they liked their plan, they could keep it. This doesn't help if you are one of the many now forced to pay hundreds more each month for coverage.
The new White House spin is that the canceled plans were substandard and the new mandatory, often costlier, plans will be better once the exchange website works, that is. Secretary Sebelius apologized for the faulty website, but not for mass cancellations. A recent speech in Boston by the President drew comparisons between the Massachusetts law and the problem-plagued Affordable Care Act. During his speech, Obama acknowledged the problems with Obamacare and apologized for his clunky rollout. “There’s no denying it, right now the website is too slow, too many people have gotten stuck and I’m not happy about it,” Obama said. Talking about the troubled launch of Obamacare he cited the slow start of Massachusetts healthcare law that Mitt Romney as governor, signed in 2006.
Romney, who as the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee ran in part on repealing ObamaCare, emerged from his post-election private life to counter the White House message and distance himself from the Obamacare feasco. “In the years since the Massachusetts health care law went into effect nothing has changed my view that a plan crafted to fit the unique circumstances of a single state should not be grafted onto the entire country,” he tweeted. “Health reform is best crafted by states with bipartisan support and input from its employers, as we did, without raising taxes, and by carefully phasing it in to avoid the type of disruptions we are seeing nationally.”
The White House needs 7 million healthy young people to join the health care exchanges within the first year of the law to keep premiums low for everyone under the Affordable Care Act. Many people see this botched roll-out of the Affordable Care Act or ‘Obamacare’ as an opening for Republicans to win over Hispanic “millennials” that make up 20 percent of those age18-to-29. They are this generation’s largest minority and as a whole their families are the most uninsured in the United States. In fact, one-third of the nation’s 48 million uninsured are Latinos. After more than a month of inoperable exchange websites, hundreds of thousands of people getting booted off their current health insurance plans and a congressional grilling of Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, many are starting to see this goal as unreachable.
Currently this law designed to cover the uninsured is throwing far more people off their insurance than it can possibly be signing up on the nonfunctioning insurance exchanges. Indeed, most of the 19 million people with individual insurance will have to find new and likely more expensive coverage. And that doesn't even include the additional millions who are sure to lose their employer-provided coverage. That's a lot of people. Perhaps Obama didn't know. maybe he was as surprised by this as he claims to have been by the IRS scandal, The Associated Press and James Rosen phone logs, the failure of the Obamacare website, the premeditation of the Benghazi attacks, and the tapping of the German Chancellor's phone.
"We canceled your plan because it was substandard" followed by "we have a better idea" can be translated into: Sure, you liked your policy, but you don't know what you need. What you really need is what our experts have determined must be in every plan. So a couple in their 60s must buy maternity care, a teetotaler substance abuse treatment, and a healthy 28-year-old with perfectly appropriate catastrophic insurance must pay for coverage for which he has no use. Fact is these required bells and whistles aren't there as voter-pleasing freebies. The planners knew all along that by forcing insurance buyers to overpay for stuff they don't need, that money can subsidize other people. The light of day is showing Obamacare is not about healthcare, it is a massive transfer of wealth through hidden taxes, penalties, mandates and coverage requirements that yield a surplus of overpayments.
Footnote; This post dovetails with many of my recent writings, for more I might suggest reading the articles below. Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/flaws-in-big-government-concept.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/obamacare-means-partime-work.html
Saturday, November 9, 2013
The Worlds 10 Worst Problems
Below is a list of the worlds ten most crucial problems counted down from
"least to most crucial" The world must begin to address these many
problems with long term solutions. Most of these are issues that
center on our sustainability. Sadly, politicians do not deal well with
such things leaving us without direction. As we look at the human condition we can let fate take us where it may choose or we can take control of our future by proper planning and by guiding it as best we can.
Here is the current list, please remember the position a problem holds on this list can shift from time to time as events take place, but expect most of them to remain on the list. Unless a black swan event such as a meteor heads our way this is what you have. Some problems have been grouped with the collateral issues associated with them, this may include the current "buzz words" used to describe their importance. Different people would group these issues in a variety of other ways and move about their priority. As always your comments are welcome.
10. Demographics of an aging population; As the population grows older euthanasia and the quality of life will become an issue. This must be handled in a fair, honest, humane, and compassionate way.
9. We must create an environment that allows and encourages people to develop fulfilling lives; This means improving the educational system and having an opportunity to find fulfilling work, seek happiness and express their individuality. It also means ending corruption and extending equal protection and fairness under the law.
8. Hunger and starvation; Gross malnutrition makes life unbearable, many people still only go through the motions of being alive. People that are starving cannot learn and take a role in society. Starvation and meeting basic sanitation must be addressed.
7. Income inequality and economic stability; The uber-rich should not become exempt from all common woes and untouchable. The uber-rich and politically elite should not comprise a special class who are immune and able to ignore the rules of society. This problem extends to fairly handling the worlds economic systems and currencies. Without a solid way to exchange goods and services other world support systems will suffer or fail.
6. Mans inability to take control of his future; The masses have been lulled into complacency, in many ways we are all slaves, this is not a new role for man. But we can think and should make an effort to do so, we must push our chosen leaders to do the right thing and make long-term plans that are sustainable. We must shape our future and the values of the society in which we live.
5. Strife between religions and tribes must end; We need to develop a new tolerance that allows man to live in peace. A safe place to live for a person and their family is one of mans most basic needs. The political elite must not be held harmless for the grief and death they cause over large swatches of mankind. War crimes cannot be tolerated.
4. Weapons of war and mass destruction; This not only includes nuclear bombs and chemical weapons but drones and the killer robots now being developed. One big mistake or going down the wrong path in developing new weapons could change life as we know it!
3. Wasting our natural resources by not conserving and the continued destruction of our environment; I contend that many of the "green solutions" being proposed such as ethanol fuel are not a solution at all and just ways for business to profit. A solutions is not truly green unless the environmental cost of "maintaining" it is very low.
2. Pollution and the resulting climate change it may bring; This is showing up in oceans that are sick and being depleted of life. This also may result in rising oceans, and crop failures. Either scenario will mean massive suffering across the world and could tear the social fabric and alter our day to day lives.
1. Over population; This is the overriding problem facing Earth and the most difficult to address. If the problem of over population is not addressed all the other problems on this list will most likely become much greater.
While people and their families go about life each day having children and doing the things we all associate with our day to day existence most people concede that something is wrong with a world where many people lack even basic sanitation and watch their children die before the age of five. I'm not saying we should give everything away or that we must bring all the people of the world up to an American standard of living. It is not our responsibility to do so and probably impossible.
In my book Advancing Time I highlight and bring focus to the massive changes that have taken place over the last two hundred and fifty years. History viewed in the framework of man's time of Earth forms the crux of my perspective. The oldest fully developed humans based on DNA research supports the theory that Africa was the area man first inhabited between 200,000 and 140,000 years ago. In 1800 the worlds population was around 900 million, by 1900 it had soared to 1.6 billion, since then it has exploded to over 7 billion.
When you chronicle the journey from the beginning of man to our current state it becomes clear that the world has never before experienced such rapid change. This perspective helps us make sense of our fast changing chaotic world while illuminating and clarifying the responsibilities society faces. It is important we recognize this ever quickening pace of change and keep in mind that if these problems are not addresses there may be no future for mankind or it may be much shorter and difficult then many people expect.
Here is the current list, please remember the position a problem holds on this list can shift from time to time as events take place, but expect most of them to remain on the list. Unless a black swan event such as a meteor heads our way this is what you have. Some problems have been grouped with the collateral issues associated with them, this may include the current "buzz words" used to describe their importance. Different people would group these issues in a variety of other ways and move about their priority. As always your comments are welcome.
10. Demographics of an aging population; As the population grows older euthanasia and the quality of life will become an issue. This must be handled in a fair, honest, humane, and compassionate way.
9. We must create an environment that allows and encourages people to develop fulfilling lives; This means improving the educational system and having an opportunity to find fulfilling work, seek happiness and express their individuality. It also means ending corruption and extending equal protection and fairness under the law.
8. Hunger and starvation; Gross malnutrition makes life unbearable, many people still only go through the motions of being alive. People that are starving cannot learn and take a role in society. Starvation and meeting basic sanitation must be addressed.
7. Income inequality and economic stability; The uber-rich should not become exempt from all common woes and untouchable. The uber-rich and politically elite should not comprise a special class who are immune and able to ignore the rules of society. This problem extends to fairly handling the worlds economic systems and currencies. Without a solid way to exchange goods and services other world support systems will suffer or fail.
6. Mans inability to take control of his future; The masses have been lulled into complacency, in many ways we are all slaves, this is not a new role for man. But we can think and should make an effort to do so, we must push our chosen leaders to do the right thing and make long-term plans that are sustainable. We must shape our future and the values of the society in which we live.
5. Strife between religions and tribes must end; We need to develop a new tolerance that allows man to live in peace. A safe place to live for a person and their family is one of mans most basic needs. The political elite must not be held harmless for the grief and death they cause over large swatches of mankind. War crimes cannot be tolerated.
4. Weapons of war and mass destruction; This not only includes nuclear bombs and chemical weapons but drones and the killer robots now being developed. One big mistake or going down the wrong path in developing new weapons could change life as we know it!
3. Wasting our natural resources by not conserving and the continued destruction of our environment; I contend that many of the "green solutions" being proposed such as ethanol fuel are not a solution at all and just ways for business to profit. A solutions is not truly green unless the environmental cost of "maintaining" it is very low.
2. Pollution and the resulting climate change it may bring; This is showing up in oceans that are sick and being depleted of life. This also may result in rising oceans, and crop failures. Either scenario will mean massive suffering across the world and could tear the social fabric and alter our day to day lives.
1. Over population; This is the overriding problem facing Earth and the most difficult to address. If the problem of over population is not addressed all the other problems on this list will most likely become much greater.
While people and their families go about life each day having children and doing the things we all associate with our day to day existence most people concede that something is wrong with a world where many people lack even basic sanitation and watch their children die before the age of five. I'm not saying we should give everything away or that we must bring all the people of the world up to an American standard of living. It is not our responsibility to do so and probably impossible.
In my book Advancing Time I highlight and bring focus to the massive changes that have taken place over the last two hundred and fifty years. History viewed in the framework of man's time of Earth forms the crux of my perspective. The oldest fully developed humans based on DNA research supports the theory that Africa was the area man first inhabited between 200,000 and 140,000 years ago. In 1800 the worlds population was around 900 million, by 1900 it had soared to 1.6 billion, since then it has exploded to over 7 billion.
When you chronicle the journey from the beginning of man to our current state it becomes clear that the world has never before experienced such rapid change. This perspective helps us make sense of our fast changing chaotic world while illuminating and clarifying the responsibilities society faces. It is important we recognize this ever quickening pace of change and keep in mind that if these problems are not addresses there may be no future for mankind or it may be much shorter and difficult then many people expect.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
All A Twitter In The Greed And Stupidity Loop
This market is all a twitter as we continue in a "greed and stupidity loop." The loop can be explained as follows, stocks are rising so why get out, not getting out is causing the stocks to rise. Yes we are indeed experiencing a double down and let it ride mentality. I don't have to explain the greed part, a perfect example is how Twitter ratcheted upward its IPO price over the last few weeks from the mid teens to $26. People continue to enter the stock market at these nose bleed heights and often at super high multiples in an effort to make money in an economy where few opportunities exist.
The stupidity part is more interesting to explore, many people have noted the disconnect between Wall Street and the economy yet the market continues to punch out new record highs. The stupidity is that many investors discount the risk or are oblivious to how vulnerable they are to a rapid and massive loss. From a low of under $30 just a year ago Tesla stock surged to a high of around $180. Yesterday the stock of Tesla Motors plunged 14.5% to close at $151 after trading as high as $180 on Tuesday. Anyone highly leveraged and trading on margin would have been toast following a day in hell.
While people continue to tout the stock market as the place to be in this low interest rate environment where few options exist, it is a dangerous place. Placing your money safely in a bank means you can watch it slowly be nibbled away by inflation. Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have made the manipulated and distorted stock market ground zero in the war to convince us all is well. The idea is that a soaring market will bolster pension funds, support housing prices, and generate a wealth effect is flawed, instead it only creates a bubble. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will collapse.
The entitlement societies that have developed over the last several decades were created on the back of the industrial revolution, technological advantages, capital accumulated from the colonial era, and the domination of global finances. They were built on the assumption that those advantages would continue in both Europe and US, and that ever greater prosperity and entitlements would be sustained through debt financed consumption growth. In that eerie fantasy world, debt fueled consumption was to be the catalyst to bring about ever more growth. Now reality has raised its ugly head and it is becoming apparent that this is unsustainable and major structural adjustments must be made.
The entitlements and promises that have piled up have become overwhelming. While the populations of Europe and America were led to believe the good times would never end, their core advantages in technology, capital, and productivity started to erode, and to lag behind the emerging countries. Manufacturing jobs have steadily gone elsewhere, replaced by low skilled service jobs, this has removed the supports from our debt fueled prosperity showing it to be unsustainable. It might be best to avoid the greed and stupidity loop.
Footnote; This post dovetails with many of my recent writings, for more I might suggest reading the article below. Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/markets-more-lies-and-munipulation.html
The stupidity part is more interesting to explore, many people have noted the disconnect between Wall Street and the economy yet the market continues to punch out new record highs. The stupidity is that many investors discount the risk or are oblivious to how vulnerable they are to a rapid and massive loss. From a low of under $30 just a year ago Tesla stock surged to a high of around $180. Yesterday the stock of Tesla Motors plunged 14.5% to close at $151 after trading as high as $180 on Tuesday. Anyone highly leveraged and trading on margin would have been toast following a day in hell.
While people continue to tout the stock market as the place to be in this low interest rate environment where few options exist, it is a dangerous place. Placing your money safely in a bank means you can watch it slowly be nibbled away by inflation. Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have made the manipulated and distorted stock market ground zero in the war to convince us all is well. The idea is that a soaring market will bolster pension funds, support housing prices, and generate a wealth effect is flawed, instead it only creates a bubble. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will collapse.
The entitlement societies that have developed over the last several decades were created on the back of the industrial revolution, technological advantages, capital accumulated from the colonial era, and the domination of global finances. They were built on the assumption that those advantages would continue in both Europe and US, and that ever greater prosperity and entitlements would be sustained through debt financed consumption growth. In that eerie fantasy world, debt fueled consumption was to be the catalyst to bring about ever more growth. Now reality has raised its ugly head and it is becoming apparent that this is unsustainable and major structural adjustments must be made.
The entitlements and promises that have piled up have become overwhelming. While the populations of Europe and America were led to believe the good times would never end, their core advantages in technology, capital, and productivity started to erode, and to lag behind the emerging countries. Manufacturing jobs have steadily gone elsewhere, replaced by low skilled service jobs, this has removed the supports from our debt fueled prosperity showing it to be unsustainable. It might be best to avoid the greed and stupidity loop.
Footnote; This post dovetails with many of my recent writings, for more I might suggest reading the article below. Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/markets-more-lies-and-munipulation.html
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Euro-zone Economy Flat At Best!
Eurozone business activity lost momentum at the start of
the fourth quarter, as companies on the whole continued to cut jobs. These recent
figures suggest any recovery remains flat at best. Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, said retail sales in the 17-nation bloc fell 0.6% in September from August. Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight, said:
"September's relapse in retail sales fuels suspicion that consumers
across the Eurozone will likely remain pretty cautious in their spending
in the near term." Retail sales fell back sharply in Portugal dropping
by 6.2% month-on-month, Spain saw a 2.5% month-on-month fall during September.
Data firm Markit said Wednesday its composite Purchasing Managers'
Index, a monthly gauge of activity across manufacturing and services,
edged down to 51.9 in October from 52.2 in September. A reading above 50 indicates growth. Wednesday's figure marks a slight
upward revision for October, but still represents a slowdown from prior
months. While still above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction this is not a strong pick up following months upon months of contraction. It seems companies received fewer new orders than in previous months and have continued to cut jobs, employment balance has been below 50
for the 22nd straight month.
The decline in employment was slightly faster than in September. Record levels of unemployment are among the Eurozone's biggest economic problems and threaten to undermine its economic recovery by exacerbating weak domestic demand. Often these workers have little in the way of savings after years of harsh times, this means that the burden of caring for them will be transferred to society. If to many people shift into this category the region will slowly wear down through attrition. The alternative to working and producing is to use up your savings or be sustained by the government, family, or friends.
A day after this post first appeared the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.25%, down from 0.5%. This surprised many analyst. ECB president Mario Draghi confirmed the decision to cut rates reflected an outlook of low inflation and economic weakness. Inflation in the Eurozone fell to 0.7% in October, prices in Greece one of those worst hit by the economic crisis have not risen since July and some economists are also worried about deflation in Spain. The ECB's target is to keep inflation just below 2%. Following the rate cut announcement Draghi said the bank expected to see "a prolonged period of low inflation followed by a gradual upward movement towards inflation rates of below but close to 2%", he said the Eurozone was seeing "weaker than expected economic activity".
September is the final month of the third quarter, so this retail data could impact on official quarterly GDP figures. Markit gives detailed figures for five countries, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Ireland account for the bulk of euro-zone economic output. All showed growth in business activity in October, with the weakest rates in France and Spain. After massive help from the ECB in the way of loans and super low interest rates the euro-zone has emerged from an 18-month recession in the second quarter with growth of 0.3%, but recent data has also pointed to a slowdown in the pace of even this weak growth. A stronger Euro over the past several months has not helped exports thus further dampening hope of a recovery.
Long ago EU leaders agreed to create a banking union as a way of breaking the so-called doom loop. This is the vicious circle in which states go so deeply into debt to support failing banks, that it forces a country to seek a bailout or risk causing it to leave the euro zone. An agreement to create a banking union has been hard to put into practice, in principle a standard process for winding down troubled banks would be a key component of this. Resistance to a massive transfer of wealth from those who hold bonds and other such debt continues as they talk, and talk, and talk. The fact that the Euro was built on a flawed foundation continues to haunt the the EU, expect things to remain flat at best for as long as the eye can see.
Footnote; Your comments are welcome and encouraged. If you have time check out the archives for other post that may be of interest to you. My two other articles about Europe can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/ecb-scheme-under-court-scrutiny.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/05/slovenia.html
Data firm Markit said Wednesday its composite Purchasing Managers'
Index, a monthly gauge of activity across manufacturing and services,
edged down to 51.9 in October from 52.2 in September. A reading above 50 indicates growth. Wednesday's figure marks a slight
upward revision for October, but still represents a slowdown from prior
months. While still above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction this is not a strong pick up following months upon months of contraction. It seems companies received fewer new orders than in previous months and have continued to cut jobs, employment balance has been below 50
for the 22nd straight month.The decline in employment was slightly faster than in September. Record levels of unemployment are among the Eurozone's biggest economic problems and threaten to undermine its economic recovery by exacerbating weak domestic demand. Often these workers have little in the way of savings after years of harsh times, this means that the burden of caring for them will be transferred to society. If to many people shift into this category the region will slowly wear down through attrition. The alternative to working and producing is to use up your savings or be sustained by the government, family, or friends.
A day after this post first appeared the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.25%, down from 0.5%. This surprised many analyst. ECB president Mario Draghi confirmed the decision to cut rates reflected an outlook of low inflation and economic weakness. Inflation in the Eurozone fell to 0.7% in October, prices in Greece one of those worst hit by the economic crisis have not risen since July and some economists are also worried about deflation in Spain. The ECB's target is to keep inflation just below 2%. Following the rate cut announcement Draghi said the bank expected to see "a prolonged period of low inflation followed by a gradual upward movement towards inflation rates of below but close to 2%", he said the Eurozone was seeing "weaker than expected economic activity".
September is the final month of the third quarter, so this retail data could impact on official quarterly GDP figures. Markit gives detailed figures for five countries, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Ireland account for the bulk of euro-zone economic output. All showed growth in business activity in October, with the weakest rates in France and Spain. After massive help from the ECB in the way of loans and super low interest rates the euro-zone has emerged from an 18-month recession in the second quarter with growth of 0.3%, but recent data has also pointed to a slowdown in the pace of even this weak growth. A stronger Euro over the past several months has not helped exports thus further dampening hope of a recovery.
Long ago EU leaders agreed to create a banking union as a way of breaking the so-called doom loop. This is the vicious circle in which states go so deeply into debt to support failing banks, that it forces a country to seek a bailout or risk causing it to leave the euro zone. An agreement to create a banking union has been hard to put into practice, in principle a standard process for winding down troubled banks would be a key component of this. Resistance to a massive transfer of wealth from those who hold bonds and other such debt continues as they talk, and talk, and talk. The fact that the Euro was built on a flawed foundation continues to haunt the the EU, expect things to remain flat at best for as long as the eye can see.
Footnote; Your comments are welcome and encouraged. If you have time check out the archives for other post that may be of interest to you. My two other articles about Europe can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/ecb-scheme-under-court-scrutiny.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/05/slovenia.html
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Flaws in the Big Government Concept
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| Big Government Has Not Solved Our Problems |
The way in which an increasingly-better educated world population faces and deals with growing governments will determine the future of the Planet Earth. The saying "be careful what you wish for" may again be proven true as those wanting more government intervention begin to recognize the limits of government and bureaucracy while at the same time seeing the true financial cost it imposes. The reality of ever-larger government has manifest itself in more scandals as departments overreach such as with the IRS and NSA or failures to accomplish a task such as putting together a working and functioning Healthcare website. We must remember that government is often not constrained by the power of the purse to strive for efficiency, where business fails when it does not meet its goals of providing a good service or product at a reasonable cost government muddles on.
Over the last two centuries the United States government has been steadily moving away from Adam Smith’s idea of limited government and towards the view of Abraham Lincoln that the purpose of government should be to do for the people, whatever they needed done, but could not do for themselves or could not do as well for themselves as individuals. At a time when the Country was young and adding state after state one might make the case that larger Government was appropriate. As more and more citizens earned the right to vote and become better educated, they have been encouraged to look at the government, as their government. This has greatly changed the viewpoint of the functions of government and has resulted in large increases in its activities. The role of the government in America has changed at all levels.
Sadly the open-ended theme of larger Government is generally a mechanism to in some way transfer wealth. Mandates often unfunded are fostered upon business organizations and private citizens. It is the nature of bureaucracy to expand. A new proactive movement of “cuteness” cloaked in a veil of flexibility and diversity allows politicians and bureaucrats use terms like "Private Public Partnership" to experiment without the personal financial risk that a businessman must take. The problem is that they are being creative on our dime. The use of sun-set legislation is underused or the bar set too low when it comes to extending and renewing government bodies. The best time to kill a monster is while it is small.
Shifting demographics are quickly weakening the Republican Party, if they do not adopt a more populist message and a big tent policy soon they will continue to lose power. This could have a very negative impact on America going forward. The polarization we see today may be mild compared to what we see in ten years if a large segment of the population feels its voice is unheard. If the checks and balances in our system fail anger will grow as more Americans begin to feel even more left out in the cold. Ironically the best friend of the Republican party has become big government and the Democratic party that has been seen as most likely to promote it as a cure to our woes.
Governments must be of the people, for the people and honor rational law. With freedom comes responsibility, people must control their own governments. Once established and settled it is often difficult to change the way a nation chooses its leaders. This is true in America where the system strongly discourages a third party and even things like an illogical electoral college that serves no purpose heavily influences our Presidential elections. This means small passionate groups of people can often skew results as their voices are amplified beyond reason, at the same time the value of other voters is diminished.
Many factors flow into how a government is chosen. A one vote one person system does not differentiate between the social or economic status of the voter, and while on the surface this would appear fair it could be argued that it has some flaws. Today in a society geared to pander to political correctness the idea of questioning a person's competence to vote would draw massive outrage and give rise to protest. Another factor is the role of money in politics and how it and lobbyist can corrupt the system by buying influence and favors. In many ways like in a pot of stew, these ingredients are thrown into the mix and allowed to simmer and commingle till a result is had.
A couple thoughts or ideas that I wish would be looked at to improve our system will never be considered because of the entrenched interest of the elites within the system block change. I like the idea of runoff elections where voters are allowed to choose their "two" favorite candidates. This lessens the chance of getting stuck with someone unpopular because a third party spoiler has skewed results. I like limiting and qualifying voters, removing the "stupid" or allowing voters with more skin in the game such as landowners, the employed, or those who pay taxes to have more voice. I understand that doing something to earn the right to vote or prove you have a vested interest in society other than "just being here" is completely foreign to America.
Add to my wish list of "crazy" ideas the following. Eliminate the dreadful electoral college and the distortion it causes, it is mind-boggling as to how much this has skewed the political landscape. Next, I would like to see a reduction by half the number of members in both the House and Senate while at the same time placing term limits upon them. Limit all laws to under five pages even if this makes them less comprehensive, when laws become overly complicated they become impossible to follow. Last but not least, move toward more national referendums and votes, if American Idol can do it, so can we. In the future elections should also be held this way as long as proper verification can be confirmed.
Polls show that a majority of Americans feel we are moving in the wrong direction. At the same time this does not indicate exactly what they think is the proper direction. It often takes courage to make the difficult and unpopular political and economic decisions that will cause pain but benefit society in the long run. A political system that encourages sidestepping these issues to pander to the masses in exchange for remaining in power pays a tremendous price that can stay hidden for only so long. This is a trap America has slipped into, getting out of this will prove quite difficult. I seriously question whether we have the fortitude to take the necessary steps required.
Footnote; This post dovetails with many of my recent writings, for more I might suggest reading the article below. Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/12/government-includes-quasi-government.html
Footnote #2; Thursday was a landmark day in political Washington as Democrats made the decision to employ the "nuclear option." This opens a potential Pandora’s Box that may very well lead to a future of majority-only votes in the Senate. The implications are hard to overstate. Yet this move is being ignored by most Americans.
Friday, November 1, 2013
Drones, Killer Robots, and Ugly Possibilities!
Drones, killer robots, and ugly possibilities is a continuation of a subject I have written about before. Blame it on an imagination gone wild or a distrust of those with too much power. Unfortunately, more recent revelations about the American government spying on us, our friends, and the leaders of our allies across the world does little to calm my concerns. We must take note that technology is quickly blurring the line between drones and robots at the same time that the killing power of these machines is being ramped up, we should be afraid! To say these machines have the potential to become formidable and a danger in the wrong hands is an understatement.
Several reports over the last two weeks detailing cases of U.S. armed drones killing civilians and how the U.S. has expanded their use is causing worldwide outrage. Reports from the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, and the lack of transparency on the use of drones from Washington recently resulted in a debate at the UN. A movement has emerged to get ahead of another potential problem by establishing an international ban on fully autonomous lethal weapons dubbed “killer robots,” it’s a technology that can kill targets (humans) without any human input. Whereas drones today have someone somewhere remotely determining where and when to fire, a fully autonomous air, land, or sea weapon could make the decisions on its own.
It sounds like the stuff of sci-fi, but the technology is well within reach given existing weaponry. The U.S. Navy’s X-47B, a Northrop Grumman-developed drone, has taken off and landed on an aircraft carrier entirely on its own, it would only be a short step to add missiles to its weapons bay. The unmanned plane is capable of supersonic twists and turns with a G-force that no human being could manage, and could take autonomous armed combat to a whole new level. In South Korea, several years ago a Samsung subsidiary designed a stationary robot sentry that sits along the demilitarized zone and can identify and fire at a target on its own. It’s linked up with a human operator for now.
Several reports over the last two weeks detailing cases of U.S. armed drones killing civilians and how the U.S. has expanded their use is causing worldwide outrage. Reports from the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, and the lack of transparency on the use of drones from Washington recently resulted in a debate at the UN. A movement has emerged to get ahead of another potential problem by establishing an international ban on fully autonomous lethal weapons dubbed “killer robots,” it’s a technology that can kill targets (humans) without any human input. Whereas drones today have someone somewhere remotely determining where and when to fire, a fully autonomous air, land, or sea weapon could make the decisions on its own.
It sounds like the stuff of sci-fi, but the technology is well within reach given existing weaponry. The U.S. Navy’s X-47B, a Northrop Grumman-developed drone, has taken off and landed on an aircraft carrier entirely on its own, it would only be a short step to add missiles to its weapons bay. The unmanned plane is capable of supersonic twists and turns with a G-force that no human being could manage, and could take autonomous armed combat to a whole new level. In South Korea, several years ago a Samsung subsidiary designed a stationary robot sentry that sits along the demilitarized zone and can identify and fire at a target on its own. It’s linked up with a human operator for now.