tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2992740250270600844.post2219139545156574388..comments2024-03-24T05:26:32.964-07:00Comments on Advancing Time: The Great Reset, Long Overdue, May Now Have ArrivedBruce Wildshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10181323607060607040noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2992740250270600844.post-88711902805396701672018-12-30T17:20:26.713-08:002018-12-30T17:20:26.713-08:00Assume that the metrics are fraudulent and that we...Assume that the metrics are fraudulent and that we are living in Hyman Minsky's Late Stage Ponzi Capitalism whereby the fundamentals of Classical Economics are unequivocally thrown out-the-door. The Great Financial Crisis was backstopped by the Federal Reserve to the tune of multiple trillions that have rendered USD competitively weak in light of the fact that the entire world cannot realistically all run to one side of the Reserve Currency Titanic USD when the entirety of Emerging Market speculators repatriate their speculative investments back to USD for safe haven.<br /><br />The model of contemporary Central Banking is evidencing unsustainability as we write here.<br /><br />It will blow up entirely by March 2019 if not sooner given the faulty engineering & incompetent architecture.<br /><br />Liquidity will theoretically dry up completely once contagion sets in, and we are ripe for that scenario right now.<br /><br />How much more time will the current superstructure hold for before a six sigma event takes part of the architecture down.<br /><br />MOUMASTER OF UNIVERSEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18209003936488629467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2992740250270600844.post-75087482960750718342018-12-23T15:01:23.381-08:002018-12-23T15:01:23.381-08:00Add on to my previous comment:
If Fed had NOT com...Add on to my previous comment:<br /><br />If Fed had NOT come out all the tools (TARP+3 QES+ ZRP++) the mkts would not have spiked back! Just look at the S&P chart(>330%) and the 3 QEs+ECB+BOE stimuli) This whole 'set up' is SURREAL and arteficial!<br /><br />Do they have tools to repeat again, against this leaking 'everything' 3rd largest of the 21 st century? Hardly!sunny129https://www.blogger.com/profile/15943935637678935406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2992740250270600844.post-71474027320544643762018-12-23T14:51:15.035-08:002018-12-23T14:51:15.035-08:00"Mathematically this is suicide: A market can... "Mathematically this is suicide: A market can fall 80% (from 100 to 20), rally 150% (20 to 50), fall 80% (50 to 10), rally 150% (10 to 25) and fall 80% (25 to 5) and while that market has fallen 95% in total, the net effect on a percentage-move basis is 80-150+80-150+80 = a loss of 60 for the bearish fund. The timing is too critical for bears to win when the math is so stacked against them."<br /><br />Been in the mkt since 82. Suffered the Bear of dot com but recovered quickly with in 2 yrs. Anticipated housing bubble bust prior to 2008. So not only I suffered NO loss but earned significant profit. I had used leveraged ETFs +options +Bear MFunds to achieve that!<br /><br />Then came the March of '09 followed by TARP (700B), 3 QES, Stimulus, twist, ZRP + suspension of Mkt to Mkt accounting standard. I never encountered an investing environment like this surreal mkt in my life time! Didn't compute with my rational brain and logic. All the investment acumen I learned went out the window or stood on it's head! I nearly lost 60% or more of my profit gained during '07-'09, for the next 8 yrs. B/c I failed the grasp the importance of QE or the ZRP! But I never lost my shirt. My profit declined from 1200% to 600%!<br /><br />Mind you the FED had NEVER bought MBSs in it's entire history, prior to March of '09! Nor there was any previous study or evidence of QE on the Economy. It was just 'hypothetical' from the seat of pant' decision by the policy makers. Barnake couldn't even explain what QE actually does? He said cannot explain in theory but works in reality'?!!<br /><br />With bears losing 60% is a bit ingenious! I am a retired medical professional+ MBA exposure. learned along the way re my option trading technique/rights/wrongs. Same with using leveraged inverse ETFs. I also use Bear MFunds. One has to be right re the TREND ans TIMING! Also one should be prepared for sudden whiplash/spikes after a severe decline. So my trade most of the time consisted pairing both long/short ETFS (calls/puts, Bear vs BULL funds) with dominance of shorting over long with variable hedges. I am (retired+10yrs) I go with 70-80% cash. 15-20% short and 5-10% long. It may stretch a bit by 5% long/short<br />Main thing I am flexible, not wedded to one style. I adopted swing trading (position trading - NOT day trading) with adequate hedges. So far working fine. So slowly recovering my lost profits and have every confidence that better days are ahead for me in the 'down cycle of the SURREAL bull slow slipping into secular bear. Time frame I don't know. Last Bear lasted 18 months. This I suspect will be a bit longer with many spikes/bull traps along the way.<br /><br />The DEBT situation is one of the worst in human history, all over the world unlike housing bubble bust in 2008! The global debt increased in some cases/countries to 2-3 fold since '09. The global debt increased from 165 T to 250 Trillions. The corporate debt from 4.1 T to over 6 T in 10 yrs. House hold debt. auto debt, student debt, you name it all, at record levels unlike any time in human history! All macro factors are NEGATIVE in the near future. DEBT deflation and deleveraging is more likely. the vested interests will definitely try to delay it but will fail just in 2000 & 2008! There may be stagflation but unlikely inflation until debt overhang is addressed. I pity the younger generations!sunny129https://www.blogger.com/profile/15943935637678935406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2992740250270600844.post-84243763924586295852018-12-21T18:38:07.394-08:002018-12-21T18:38:07.394-08:00Please consider the possibility that all this may ...Please consider the possibility that all this may not result in the deflation many people expect. The surge in government debt in many ways has been a transfer of debt from the individual to the public where many people controlling such matters feel it is more benign. Government debt is no more than paper promises and includes holdings in currencies, bonds, future income based on a pension payout, and much, much more.<br /><br />At some point collapsing debt and dropping faith in fiat currency will intersect taking us to an interesting place. I contend slow growth coupled with a lack of really good options as to where people can safely store their wealth will drive the value of real and tangible assets through the roof. The following article argues that this will result in a wave of inflation.<br /><br /> https://When Debts Collapse In Default-part-three.htmlBruce Wildshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10181323607060607040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2992740250270600844.post-4836370510047338532018-12-20T08:22:55.128-08:002018-12-20T08:22:55.128-08:00Recency bias taught everyone that only fools sell ...Recency bias taught everyone that only fools sell downtrends. If the markets fall 50%, what is it? A buying opportunity (SPX/DJIA in 2002 and 2009.) If they fall 80%, it's still a buying opportunity (NDX 2002.) <br /><br />This means that the essential component of a truly massive decline (90%, 95%, even 98%), a Pavlovian refusal to capitulate, is in place. <br /><br />Don't look for the bears to profit, however. Direct shorts' maximum gain is 100% (the asset borrowed and sold declines to $0) but the risk is mathematically infinite. The most convenient way to "short" today is via highly leveraged options/futures or via inverse index funds. Mathematically this is suicide: A market can fall 80% (from 100 to 20), rally 150% (20 to 50), fall 80% (50 to 10), rally 150% (10 to 25) and fall 80% (25 to 5) and while that market has fallen 95% in total, the net effect on a percentage-move basis is 80-150+80-150+80 = a <b>loss of 60</b> for the bearish fund. The timing is too critical for bears to win when the math is so stacked against them.<br /><br />Since 1981 all assets have more-or-less rallied together as investor demand for debt securities drove prices higher (and yields lower) despite a willingness on the part of debtors (gov't, corps, individuals) to issue a virtual OCEAN of IOU's. Intangible assets do not obey econ101 supply/demand price models. Rising prices during bull runs INCREASE the quantity demanded by buyers and the supply thus offered...until the mass psychology fueling the bull market wanes. We're treated to industry-scale rationalizations for what is always nothing more than an Extraordinary Popular Delusion, a fad (and nothing more.)<br /><br />If "all the same market" rallies in debt, equity, land and commodities have in fact begun reversing the last 40-50 years of behavior, then the Greatest Credit Bubble in history is set to deflate into the deepest deflationary depression EVER. Imagine how many jobs today exist because of debt-enabled-demand from government, corporations and individuals? A credit-collapse will destroy ability and willingness to lend and borrow, knocking down ALL those dominoes and taking with them their contribution to GDP and tax receipts. <br /><br />Modern economies cannot be run on banknote cash. Nothing that credit-manufacturing entities (The banks, the Fed, etc.) will do will stop the evaporation of credit and the monetary wealth represented by the Ocean of Bonds now in existence, until the mob psychology of contraction has run its course, too. It will look like a shortage of money (liquidity) and there's no alternative. All roads lead to a decline in wealth never witnessed. Get the popcorn ready, this has been a long time coming.dc.sunsetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08826161742700965939noreply@blogger.com