Iran Gambit Carries Implications Greater Than Perceived

 

In the long run, what is happening in Iran is very important. This is something most people don't care about or understand. The force driving the situation in Iran may not be as much about Iran as it is about controlling the flow of oil to China. By controlling the flow of oil to China, the ability to "enforce or encourage" China to continue to supply the world with rare earth metals until other countries can get up to speed in producing these metals is greatly enhanced.

The military attack against Iran can be viewed as more about power and eliminating our reliance on China and its ability to hold us hostage than simple regime change. China's predatory economic system has allowed, or should we say, positioned it to refine and produce at below cost rare earth metals. A large part of this is based on ignoring the environmental costs that flow from the process. 

It is difficult to find our way through all the propaganda surrounding what is happening on the global stage. A great deal of it is being produced by pro or anti-Trump-focused individuals. Clearly, what is occurring in Iran will have a long-term impact and is not likely to play out in one day. It portends a fundamental shift in thinking and deserves far more thought than it is being given by many people across the world.

The war, or Trump's military mission, comes with both great risk and the possibility of great rewards. Initially, much of this results in a lot of short term pain from higher energy cost for much of the world, especially if the chaos drags on for an extended time. These higher energy costs tend to slow the global economy, exposing vulnerabilities in investing strategies. This adds to volatility and shifts in the value of many assets. 

This is noted by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every as they discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources that are rapidly being changed by foreign policy and economic statecraft. Sadly, the fact that the average man or woman across the world has no idea, interest, or understanding of the importance of the Iranian conflict screams that we have indeed failed as a species and protectors of the planet.  

Simply ask a few of the people you meet today about something specific related to Iran and expect to be disappointed. Not long ago, Senator Ted Cruz was asked about the population of Iran, and from what I understand, he put it at around nine million rather than the ninety-plus million that live there. Actions flowing from old religious beliefs and scriptures also muddy the water, making this a very dangerous intersection.

In a video, Urban Atlas attempts to educate us, the generally ignorant masses, about the geography of Iran. In doing so, he humanizes its people and underlines the importance of Iran. This video extends far beyond what we normally see on the news and social media. There is much more to the geography, history and people than what we are constantly fedevery time we open any social media platform. This video showcases what a great country Iran is when you look past its current tragedies.

Brent Johnson, a fellow mostly known for "the dollar milkshake," a theory of why the US dollar will grow stronger before eventually failing,  also weighs in on Trump moving on Iran. Johnson points to the idea that America is likely to be hurt far less than many other countries as this unfolds. In his most recent podcast, Johnson points out that Trump, in the tweet below, is spreading the blame and positioning America "not as the bad guy," causing oil prices to rise. 

 

I agree with Johnson and others that claim that pain and chaos are part of the process we face in cleaning up a mess we have partly created. Like other commentators, Johnson keys in on the difference between hard power and soft power. And, to be quite frank, we are now in a game of hard power. Iran is pivotal in Trump's game to retain America as the world's hegemon. 

 

All this deserves far more thought than it is being given by many people across the world. Duration matters; how long chaos lasts in the Middle East underlines just how important oil and natural gas are to the economy. This is a must win, or a situation where this must end with a positive outcome, in order for Trump to do well in the midterm elections and continue to pursue his agenda. 

 

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)