Peeling The Economic Onion Will Bring On The Tears

Unless you have the fortitude of a Greek God, peeling back the layers of our current "economic onion" will very likely bring you to tears. Looking back over the last several years could make a person argue that massive stupidity has been a huge factor in keeping the economy afloat. In short, those pulling the strings have constructed a false economy that is unsustainable and will at some point implode.

In most situations that I research it seems that as the investigation takes me deeper and deeper into the numbers I come upon some rather ugly realities that are difficult to face. In the metaphoric sense, the term peeling peel back the onion is an act someone undertakes in order to understand what lurks below. To expose the various layers of something investigators often find they have to peel away falsehoods and misconceptions to discover just how corrupt the message we are told truly is.

The area where most people seldom venture is protected by myths and half-truths. An example of this can be seen in America's relationship with China. For decades China exported deflation as it gladly traded cheap goods for jobs. That has come to an end, no longer is China's labor market the cheapest in the world. This is now beginning to show up in the cost China charges those buying its products.

The illusion of a robust economy has been propelled forward by the sheer "quantity" of financial growth and deficit spending rather than anything resembling quality. Poorly crafted and shockingly large spending bills have created a situation encouraging government agencies to spend like drunken sailors. It seems that again Federal agencies as well as state and local governments are flush with cash as the result of another stimulus package. 

While most politicians would shy away from describing the infrastructure bill as stimulus spending that is exactly what it is. The bill is designed more as a way to create jobs and push the economy forward than improve the country's infrastructure. Now, state and local governments must rapidly appropriate and assign that money as they find they are now facing a "use it or lose it" situation. Such rapid spending generally does not utilize or allocate money in a way that maximizes results.

The Above Chart From Northmantrader.com Indicates, This Is Not "Normal"

A lot of things or issues are contained in the layers of our "economic onion." Things such as, How a huge amount of our so-called economic growth or GDP during the last decade has been in the healthcare sector. All the expensive new hospitals and buildings that line America's interstates sporting names such as UnitedHealthOne, Aetna, Humana, and Anthem stand as monuments to Obamacare. To be clear, that is not a good thing, all this has not drastically improved healthcare, it has simply driven the cost through the roof. 

Then we have inflation which recently reached a 31 year high and appears to be heading higher. It is difficult to argue that wage inflation is on a rampage, at least in some sectors of the economy. When you see someone just out of high school with little or no training being offered north of $15 to take a low-level job that two years ago paid around $8 it is clear. Soaring food and energy prices are also adding to the mix.

Both of these issues dovetail with a massive growth in online retailing driven by companies being forced to compete with Amazon. America has yet to deal with the negative ramifications Amazon is showering upon it as it destroys small businesses in our communities. Yes, these are the same businesses that provide jobs for your neighbors, support local sports teams, and pay property taxes. Of course, Jeff Bezos did not do this alone, he had the help of politicians, our government, and the United States postal service, all of which joined in throwing brick and mortar retailers under the bus.

Another thing I wish to address here is how miss-leading claims of growing retail sales have squashed concerns the economy is in real trouble. Why would they not be higher, the recession caused by Covid-19 was the first in our history where even while millions of people were not working incomes rose. It should be noted much of the meager 1.7% rise in retail sales was due to inflation people, Yes, we are paying more for less, in some cases, a lot more. 

Only Over Many Years Do We Gain True Perspective

Throw in the soaring national debt, the soaring trade deficit, soaring inequality, underfunded pensions, and a few other ugly issues, and tears should be streaming down the faces of all who want to leave the world better off for future generations. The distorted nature of our current market becomes apparent when you look closer at the society we are becoming as people walk along with their eyes glued to their cell phones.

In our rapidly changing world, decades of economic perspective are badly needed to understand today's financial markets. As a person who cares about and is concerned about the economy, I find it very disturbing that so many people have forgotten or never taken the time to learn recent financial history. By recent, I'm referring to the last fifty to one hundred years.

The further we look back in history, it could be argued that the relevance and lessons we have learned weaken because the economy and financial landscape of today is considerably different from that of our predecessors. Still, those without a long-term view or outlook of the economy wander about with what might be called "blind spots." This means, they may be unable to imagine or may miss possible scenarios as to how the world might react to unfolding events. I always marvel when I hear some young expert telling people how to invest by cranking out the wisdom they picked up in school only last year. Remember, if you decide they have all the answers, you may find yourself generating a fresh batch of tears.

 (Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

As Railroads Grow In importance China Plans To Dominate

Chinese-Bullet-Trains On Full Display

One vision of the future has people across the world zipping from place to place on high-speed trains. Of course, trains are not yet that big of a factor in America but they may become a bigger player in moving people as the sky grows crowded. If this is to unfold the market will most likely be controlled by a few well-entrenched big players. Many industry watchers see the writing is already on the wall, "Get Big Or Die" but that may be a simplification of what we are seeing. 

According to the South Morning China Post in an article published about four years ago, China Railway Rolling Stock Corp (CRRC), the merged new entity of China’s two largest train makers, was on the move. It had just announced contracts worth 12.2 billion yuan (HK$15 billion), alongside another 4.84 billion yuan deal to supply metro trains to Hong Kong. Among the eight deals announced at the time, only one was for export. Still, this company should not be underestimated, at that time, CRRC had 90 percent of China's domestic market for the production of railway locomotives, bullet trains, passenger trains, and metro vehicles.

CRRC Government Supported And Subsidized

Even back then, no effort was made to deny the impetus for the merger of China CNR Corp and CSR Corp was so China could push deeper into overseas markets. The company aimed to grow the proportion of exports in its revenues by pigging backing on China's ambitions to build an international infrastructure-backed trade network under its "Road and Belt" initiative. Not only has CRRC benefited from China's growing high-speed network, while keeping costs under control, it has also caught up with Western peers when it comes to technology. 

 

Proof of CRRC's ability to compete is that it has been able to win by a wide margin nine-figure contracts, such as the supply of metro cars to Boston and LA. With this in mind, is it any wonder that in 2019, the Chinese rolling stock manufacturer CRRC Corp. Ltd. dominated the world market for metro vehicles with a market share of 67 percent. According to Statistia.com, CRRC was the only manufacturer to boast a double-figure market share. None of its largest rolling stock competitors including European manufacturers, such as Alstom and Bombardier, or Asian manufacturer Hyundai Rotem could muster more than a six percent market share.

Is This Really A Win-Win for America?

  

 

Back in the 19th century, 30 pupils from China traveled to the United States as part of an educational mission. One of them was 12-year-old Zhan Tianyou, he is now known as the "Father of China's Railways." Nearly 150 years later, Springfield, the home to 154,000 people, and where Zhan Tianyou learned, is home to a factory that builds rail coaches as part of CRRC's subsidiary in Massachusetts. The $95 million factory is part of a $566.6 million deal with Boston's transit authority, signed in October 2014, to build 284 rail cars that will replace the aging fleet connecting Cambridge to downtown Boston by 2023.

Assembling Is Not Manufacturing

While some people focus on how such arrangements are good for a town such as Springfield when companies decide to open a factory there, the real winner here is CRRC. As I see it, they hire a few workers to assemble railcars from parts made and imported from China. Why wouldn't a company jump on an opportunity where for so little risk they would be massively profitable from the get-go? Consider this another example of how America's deficit spending is not making our country stronger but strengthening our rivals. Watch, and think about the YouTube clips below.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_Pq3QJBjLA&t=36s

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfp5fow5_lU

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yt6gTy71AGI

 

Do the math! The CRRC story like many others is being massively spun. The company is currently advertising for workers touting pay in the area of $17 an hour. Multiply this by 2,000 hours a year and you get an annual salary of $34,000. Considering that if an employer pays out an average of $50,000 a year they can employ 20 people for a million dollars. To employ 200 people at $50,000 a year comes out to only ten million dollars. So, I ask, where is the money from these contracts going? The answer is, straight to China. It should be pointed out that a 204,000 Sq Foot facility is no longer super large and nearly 200 employees is not a super large investment in Springfield and assembling cars is not really manufacturing.

 

  

CRRC On A Mission To Expand

All this shines a light upon just how powerful a tool China's Road and Belt initiative is. The railway line connecting Nairobi with Mombasa in East Africa is an example of this. Projects of the type it promotes are typically financed, built, and operated by Chinese firms. CRRC has even built joint ventures with Western competitors. The consortium it formed with Bombardier allowed CRRC to compete for the renewal of the New York subways where a contract of around $1.5 billion dollars was in play.

 

There is a lesson to be learned here, it has to do with the fact some strategies are so rooted in a county's culture they reveal its very soul. China's predatory way of attacking its competition is not an accident. Again we see the power a company gains when it is supported, subsidized, or given an unfair advantage by its government. The bottom-line is that CRRC's internationalization projects are very ambitious and highlight the goal behind the merger of CNR and CSR. It was to end the competition between the two Chinese companies on foreign contracts.

CRRC has won rail contracts as far afield as Chicago and Kenya. China’s Belt and Road initiative will also bring yet more international business its way. Be warned that CRRC's size plus access to cheap finance will let it crush rivals unless action is taken. Americans would be wise to pay a little more attention to such mergers and China's predatory form of capitalism. Do not expect Biden or our current Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg to bring this to our attention as they dole out more than a trillion dollars from America's recently passed infrastructure package.

 

Footnote; You may also want to see - https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/03/passenger-rail-needs-huge-makeover-to.html

 (Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

"The Peter Principle" Is Alive And Well Across The World

Have We Hit Our Level Of Incompetence?

The Peter principle is a concept in management theory formulated by Laurence J. Peter in which the selection of a candidate for a position is based on the candidate's performance in their current role, rather than on abilities relevant to the intended role. Thus, employees only stop being promoted once they can no longer perform effectively, and "managers rise to the level of their incompetence." In short, this creates a situation where a seemingly intelligent person can also be very incompetent. 

 

To an advanced species examining Earth, the search for intelligent life might not be as easy as we think.

While humans sport some of the traits attributed to intelligence they also tend to have a short-sighted view of the future that results in them continually shooting themselves in the foot. This brings into question man's ability to reach the next level. Near the beginning of 2014, I penned a piece questioning how so many people were able to think the world's surging population would not become a problem because of new energy sources. Even more puzzling is the notion we could just unload huge numbers of people to distant planets. While such faith can be sighted as a beacon of inspiration it hardly is justification for mankind to rapidly move towards the point of no return thinking everything will be fine.

Man Tends To Destroy What He Creates

Anyone with even the slightest mechanical knowledge will tell you that solar panels, windmills, and such take a lot of energy to build and often are maintenance intense. Both these complicated systems have a short lifespan and require a great deal of energy to be expended in just keeping them up and running. This includes all the BTUs being burned in producing parts that need to be constantly replaced. This was one of my arguments years ago when I expressed concern the optimism surrounding ethanol was being over-hyped.

When you do not create enough "net gain" in energy from the total energy produced minus energy expended to produce it, you have a problem. If we cannot claim a major victory in resolving our energy problem, the energy we produce in the future will very likely be very expensive. If so, that cost will slow economic growth and remove much of the plentiful bounty we have come to expect and have enjoyed during what I call man's "golden age" or roughly the last 200 years.

Carry no illusions the days of cheap energy are behind us and not only has the low-hanging fruit been picked it has been eaten. Sadly, if we look back we will see much of this energy was allowed to go to waste. America has adopted the same attitude towards its buildings. In our fast-changing world, we have made everything disposable.  A remove and replace mentality tends not to maximize gains or resources and creates a huge amount of waste. Often there is no way to reclaim much of this and even recycling is inefficient. This acceptable lifestyle and way of doing business has extended down to the point where most consumer goods are now unrepairable. With fast growth, we often see a lack of quality. I contend this is about to catch up with modern society. 

We are currently seeing a "go green" answer to our problems being promoted not only by governments but the major Central Banks. Sadly, many of the proposed solutions to our woes are based on what appears to be pie-in-the-sky visions that make little sense. One thing that would help is simply conserving our resources and cutting down on waste but this idea has been thrown under the bus and to speak of it is taboo. It is absent from consideration because it would cut GDP. For example, energy use soars during extremely hot or cold months adding to overall consumption.

Mankind Has Failed To Plan For Sustainability

When we look at fast-growing cities where we see buildings erected and ripped down and replaced after only two or three decades we should ask if this is sustainable or our best use of resources. The reasoning behind remove and replace is often that it is far less expensive to just rip it down than to repair or upgrade a structure with labor being the determining factor. Ironically, this is in a world where the number of people in many developed countries choosing to work is declining and those being supported by government programs have risen dramatically.

As the noose of reality and finite resources begins to tighten around the neck of mankind do not expect to hear those in charge to scream out warnings from the rooftops. The few mutterings we hear will be from people tagged as "gloom and doomers" who only see the glass as half empty and are incapable of seeing it as really half full. When we approach the tipping point promises of easier, cheaper, and ever better ways of postponing the inevitable will prove to be an illusion. This means new problems will begin to materialize on a daily basis and the reality our options are evaporating will be both abrupt and harsh. As I ponder our fate is it possible the collective human race is also governed by the "Peter principle" and if so, how will humanity escape this trap?

The Destroyed City Of Mosul

An example of man's collective incompetence arose a few years ago with the clumsy destruction of Mosul in northern Iraq. Much of the world chose to ignore what happened there when a coalition of anti-ISIS forces retaking Mosul rapidly reduced the proud city to rubble. Upon seeing the pictures of the city in ruins it is not difficult to imagine 100,000 or more of the innocent people trapped within the city killed as troops seeking to eradicate some four to six thousand ISIS fighters went about their task. Little praise can be shed upon those who allowed and enabled a few extremists to take their weapons from them and then wreak havoc upon this peaceful city.

Taliban Show Off Their New Weapons

A more recent example of collective incompetence is how America's government left tens of billions of dollars worth of usable US military hardware and explosives in the hands of the Taliban, ISIS, and Al-Qaeda.  These are militant Sunni Islamist multi-national organizations, we are talking about people most of us view as America-hating terrorists. Couple this with America's surging national deficit and it appears we are looking at a country gone mad. Even more ironic is that much of the money created from deficit spending is flowing directly to China, a country America now views as its rival, to buy poor quality consumer goods. 

As previously mentioned, the Peter Principle is based on the notion that employees will get promoted as long as they are competent, but at some point will fail to get promoted beyond a certain job because it has become too challenging for them. Employees rise to their level of incompetence and stay there. The question here is whether mankind will be halted by the same dilemma. When we look at world leaders such as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, it is easy to argue the Peter Principle extends far into the political sector. 

One way to reconcile how an intelligent person can also come across as so incompetent is to consider their actions are compromised by corruption. Maybe it is time for someone to write a new best-seller titled; The Corruption Principle. It could be based on how as a person gains influence and power they become inclined to throw the rest of society under the bus for fun and profit.

I'm not saying that we should stop trying to move forward, but it would be wise to give the issue of creating a more sustainable future a bit more thought. This should be a priority because it appears we are already sowing the seeds for a less than compelling future? Thinking that we are immune to the rules governing the universe may prove a grave mistake. The morons and clowns that blessed us with Covid-19 and the way it has been handled are proof incompetence is not in short supply. 

Footnote; The following articles are related to the post above.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/01/are-evs-good-for-environment-mostly-not.html   https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/09/whats-happening-in-afghanistan-has-made.html https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-importance-of-where-and-what.html 

 (Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

When Buildings Collapse It Gets Noticed

When a building collapses it gets noticed. It has been a while since Americans woke to the shocking news of the collapse of the 12-story Champlain Towers South beachfront condominium in Surfside, Florida. Following the collapse, Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava ordered all buildings over 40 years old to undergo an "immediate" audit on their structural well-being.

As a result of this, the city of North Miami Beach ordered the evacuation of more than 300 residents of the 10-story Crestview Towers Condominium. After reviewing an engineering field study dated Jan 11 of the 156 unit building it deemed the building structurally unsafe. The building inspection report found both structural and electrical issues.

A Bad Structural Report Is Poison

This is the first major residential structure to be closed after the June 24th Surfside tragedy but with officials on edge it may not be the last. City Manager Arthur H. Sorey III said in a news release. "In an abundance of caution, the City ordered the building closed immediately and the residents evacuated for their protection, while a full structural assessment is conducted and next steps are determined,"

What escapes most individuals is the economic implications of this new, shall we call it, development. This is a massive ball crusher for all those that have sunk a good deal of their wealth into such buildings. If in coming years more buildings begin to collapse this will change the value of certain types of buildings in a way most people never thought possible.

After the collapse of Champlain Towers, fears began to spread up and down Miami as residents who own condos in aging buildings grew concerned engineering audits could bring to light millions of dollars in repairs that would jack up homeowners association fees. The audits could also cause an evacuation of their building, and spark a liquidation fire-sale as owners of older condos rushed to sell ahead of new regulatory action. 

 When special repairs are needed and the funds are not available a special assessment is levied against the owners of all the units in a building. These can be quite sizable, a great example of this can be found in a 2007, Boston Globe article. It reported how the owners of units in Harbor Towers in Boston faced special assessments of $70,000 to $400,000 after the board discovered $75 million in repairs were needed on the then-36-year-old building.

Imagine a scenario where the cost of repairing and addressing serious issues could easily exceed the original cost of the entire building. With construction costs surging because of both higher material and labor costs this is often the case. This means the value of units inside reinforced concrete high-rise condos can rapidly adjust to the results of inspections. This is especially true when they reveal structural weaknesses. Such aging structures exist all across the nation and the world. The risk noted here will without a doubt, in the future, be reflected in higher insurance costs. 

Many People Died, Issue Of Safety Increased

The Champlain Towers South collapse is likely to make it more difficult for buyers to get mortgages to buy such properties. Any structural weaknesses will impair the creditworthiness of the units, limiting owners' ability to borrow the money needed to pay for potentially burdensome repairs. Also, owners that cannot afford the repairs, fear the building is unsafe, or that have little equity in their unit are likely to abandon their unit rather than pony up their share for repairs.

These abandoned units would then become very difficult to sell and many could revert to the control of the condo association making the other owners in "good standing" responsible for funding the unit's share of the repair bill. In a situation where enough owners abandon their units, at some point, the only option is to surrender the unrepaired building to demolition. This eliminates the liability of it collapsing and damaging other structures or injuring others.

When it comes to the unknown regarding the seriousness of the damage and the liabilities of every entity involved in the assessment, plans, insurance, and execution of the repairs, it is very easy to underestimate the costs of repairing structural damage in high-rise buildings. Then there is the issue of whether the course of action chosen to repair the problem will be effective. 

A whole other issue is just how good these inspections are, not all inspectors are created equal. When it comes to a major structural problem in these types of buildings, the risks are very real and few contractors and architectural engineers are willing to take on the liability that comes with them. It is said success has many fathers and failure is an orphan. The fact is, when all is said and done, nobody wants to be associated with a building that kills its residents as it crumbles into dust. 

 

There are about 160,000 condominium buildings in the United States. The Community Associations Institute, an umbrella organization for resident-owned buildings and developments, reported last year that 80 percent of associations faced unplanned repairs during the preceding three-year period. A major reason this has not been a major issue until now is that property values in many places have continued to rise despite the growing backlog of maintenance needs.

As the title of this article states; when buildings collapse it gets noticed. If in the near future we witness another collapse similar to that which occurred in Surfside this issue will move even more into the forefront and be a huge wake-up call for condominium owners on the true costs of cost of their units.

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

The State Of Our Union Is "Sorry At Best"

One use of the word "sorry" is to mean in a poor, wretched, pitiful state or condition. It appears this opinion is now shared by many Americans. This is highlighted by what is put before us when we seek to read the news each day. The articles below (some shortened) give the impression the American people do not have much to be happy about.

 

Tom Cotton Gives Reason For Biden’s Midnight Flights: “They’re trying to hide the consequences of that policy in the dark of night”

By Gary Fenster - October 20, 2021

Cotton Calls Out Biden's Failed Policy

 

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) called out Biden over Joe’s new scandal, flying migrants across the U.S. in the dead of night so the public is none the wiser. Cotton said. He claims the obvious reason why they’re flying these migrants across the country in the dead of night is they don’t want to reveal the consequences of their open borders policy. If they were proud of their policy, they’d be having these flights in the middle of the daytime and coordinating it with the local TV stations.

Cotton said, “They know that Joe Biden’s open border policy is a political disaster. So they’re trying to hide the consequences of that policy in the dark of night."

 

“It’s very hurtful for President Biden politically, but it’s a catastrophe for our country, we’re going to be close to 2 million migrants crossing our border very soon. Texas is a big country with a lot of great people, but not even Texas can keep 2 million new residents there. That’s why they’re flying them to places like Florida and New York and all points in between. And it’s going to put real strain on those communities"

 

“All of these migrants should not be in Texas, or Florida or New York, they should be in Mexico, because President Biden should have kept the "Remain in Mexico" policy in place to make sure that people aren’t entering the country with bogus claims of asylum." Biden rescinded that policy.

“Federal Courts have told him he has to re-implement it. But in the meantime, we’ve had 2 million illegal migrants not just crossed the border and fan out across the country,” Cotton said before calling Biden’s policy a “moral catastrophe, creating incentives for very dangerous and immoral behavior.”

My Comment; How do such programs using taxpayer money ever get to see the light of day? The cost and ramifications are huge and will not end tomorrow. Add to this the issue of illegal migrants not being vaccinated while many Americans are required to be under mandates. Also, we are told, our government is considering paying many migrants over $450,000 for what we have made them suffer.

Academy of Breastfeeding: ‘Breastfeeding Mother’ Changed to ‘Lactating Person’ in Updated Guidelines Via the Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine Position Statement and Guideline: “ABM recognizes that not all people who give birth and lactate identify as female and that some individuals identify as neither female nor male. The statement states that to be inclusive to all people in written materials, the use of desexed or gender-inclusive language is appropriate in many settings. The statement also calls for an end to violence and discrimination* against lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, questioning, and intersex, plus (LGBTQI+) people.” *In a sneaky re-framing, the social engineers attempt to equate a statement of biological reality — such as a “woman” being a human female with female reproductive organs — with “violence.”

 

House to vote on Bannon contempt as Justice decision looms

 

MARY CLARE JALONICK October 21, 2021, 5:25 WASHINGTON (AP)

 

The House is voting on whether to hold Steve Bannon, a longtime ally and aide to former President Donald Trump, in contempt of Congress after he defied a subpoena from a committee investigating the violent Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. If the House vote succeeds, there’s still considerable uncertainty about whether the Justice Department will prosecute Bannon. 

 

To emphasize the committee's unity in holding Bannon accountable, the panel's Democratic chairman, Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson, will lead the debate on the bill along with Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, one of two Republicans on the committee — a rare show of bipartisanship on the House floor. If Congress can’t perform its oversight job, the message sent to “the general public is these subpoenas are a joke,” said Stephen Saltzburg, a George Washington University law professor and former Justice Department official.

Picture Of Well Paid Clowns

Saltzburg said if Attorney General Merrick Garland, a former federal judge whom Saltzburg regards “as one of the most nonpartisan people I know,” doesn't authorize a prosecution, “he’s going to be letting the Constitution, it seems to me, be placed in jeopardy. And it’s way too important for him to let that happen.” Democrats are pressuring Justice to take the case, arguing that nothing less than democracy is on the line.

 

My Comment; Washington is broken. Over the years, several people have gone before such committees and lied with no consequences yet it intends to hold Bannon's feet to the fire. This sounds purely political and a bit hypocritical to me. How about they take a closer look at Hunter Biden and explain why he is not in prison. 

 

 

PETA Urging MLB To Rename 'Bullpen' To 'Arm Barn,' It's Insensitive To Cows!

Tmz Sports reports that PETA in a news release Thursday said "bullpen" is insensitive to cows. The org. said baseball should instead use "arm barn" to avoid the issue. "Words matter, and baseball 'bullpens' devalue talented players and mock the misery of sensitive animals," PETA exec Tracy Reiman said.

The org. added that it's all a problem because bullpens are places where cows go before they're slaughtered on farms ... and where the animals go before they're treated poorly at rodeos. "Strike out the word 'bullpen,' which references the holding area where terrified bulls are kept before slaughter," PETA said, "in favor of a more modern, animal-friendly term."

My Comment; the trends we face such as, rewriting history and re-framing the way society views current issues erodes the very foundation of our culture in a very dangerous way. 

 

No whites allowed at anti-racist Elizabethtown College event

Matt Lamb - Associate Editor •October 15, 2021

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‘This group will be a space for people who identify as individuals of color’ Elizabethtown College hosted an event on October 12 about white supremacy and racism, but the alleged perpetrators of hatred were not allowed to themselves attend. The event at the private Pennsylvania University is part of a three-part series called “Mediocre + Multimedia Content.”

 

“The programming for this event is for participants who identify as individuals of color,” the event description said. “Following the first and third sessions, participants will come together with participants representing different racial affinity groups for a shared reception at the Bowers Writers House featuring its signature chocolate fondue.”

 

The program drew criticism from the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education. FIRE wrote in a letter on October 11. Not allowing whites to attend is segregation. “Such segregation is unlawful and suggests that certain students have nothing to gain from an event and little of value to contribute because of the color of their skin,” FIRE spokesperson Daniel Burnett wrote in an accompanying blog. 

 

In addition to the potentially illegal nature of the event, the thought process behind the exclusion is also lacking. The event is hosted under the “Center for Global Understanding and Peacemaking” as part of a series on racism and white supremacy. Yet white students who do desire to learn about how they might be perpetrating a supremacist ideology cannot learn how to do so from their racial minority peers.

My Comment; Never before has the issue of race relations been pushed so strongly in the face of the American public. It has reached the point where it is causing more harm than good. Why can't we just get along?

 

The articles above are just an example of the stories reported and placed before us every day. None of the above leads me to believe any of these issues will soon be put to rest. That is why the title of this piece is; The State Of Our Union Is "Sorry At Best"

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Billionaire Tax Is A Ploy To Take Eyes Off Bigger Problems

In sports, the term head-fake is used to describe the act of moving the head in such a way as to deceive an opponent as to one's intended direction or move. The idea of a billionaire tax to tax the super-rich with the idea they will pay for all the gifts the government wants to shower on the people is such a distraction. The idea we can level a playing field that is totally tilted to favor the rich by taxing them after billions of dollars are transferred into their coffers through questionable policies is bullshit. 

Small Businesses Provide Choice

Politicians are about to embark on a bit of expensive theater to give the impression they can address inequality through increasing taxes on the ultra-rich, this will fail. What we need are policies that promote small businesses. Small businesses provide choice, and choice is freedom. Freedom to live as you wish and options on how you shape your future. Freedom stands in total opposition to the World Economic Forum idea that by 2030 you will own nothing and be happy. 

Let us assume that what ProPublica found is true; While the median American household earning roughly $70,000 per year paid 14% in federal taxes each year, the 25 richest Americans (by Forbes’ tally) paid a “true tax rate” of just 3.4% on wealth growth of $401 billion between 2014 and 2018. If so, you can understand why those households with a $70,000 per year income are steamed. ProPublica also claims that since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, billionaires have seen a 70% increase in their wealth, from nearly $3 trillion to almost $5 trillion.

So, what exactly is in this "billionaires tax bill" and how would it work? Nobody really knows because the devil is in the details and those remain few and far apart. Supposedly, the proposal would only impact taxpayers with more than $1 billion in assets, or those with incomes of more than $100 million for three consecutive years. This means the tax would apply to only about 700 of the wealthiest people in America. 

The billionaire tax is an attempt to convince the American people the government can bring in more revenue to help offset the massive spending proposed by progressive democrats and the Biden administration. Such a ploy massively distracts from addressing the unfolding economic nightmare unleashed upon the American people. It also does little to alter the reality of growing inequality, a weakening economy, and the growing political divide that rips at our nation. The hole being created by the loss of choice and options can never be corrected by merely transferring wealth to the least wealthy. Once spent, this money quickly returns to those at the top.

Growing Inequality Was a Problem long Before Covid-19

I contend that today many of the super-rich are capitalist crones and shills of the government. They have been anointed to carry out the mission placed upon them by the super-powerful that pull the strings of society. Make no mistake, this bullshit is a pile of crap dished out to us by progressives so they can unleash their massive spending plan and transfer wealth to those supporting them. When you label something as free you tend to get a lot of takers and this time they are promising a gift to almost everyone.

The answer is to create a system where certain individuals have not been given favored status in the first place. Governments are often behind where many of these billionaires have gotten their profits in the first place. Jeff Bezos and Amazon had the aid of a tax system (no sales tax on online sales) and the United States Postal Service (below-cost deliveries) to propel it forward. Also, politicians rushed to give the company special deals for locating distribution systems in their area, local longtime businesses be damned. 

Tesla and Apple follow the same storyline. Elon Musk has sucked on the government teat to where everything he does is subsidized. While it is still debated whether electric vehicles are better for the environment the masses told by the mass media and a government that has never demonstrated much insight to creating a compelling sustainable future have declared them our savior. Before that it was Steve Jobs, people tend to forget how much of Apple's success flowed from the government buying and filling schools with Apple computers that were produced overseas. 

Two big issues, the first these taxes will not stay on the super-rich, they will morph into a system that works its way downward to the upper-middle-class. Second, the super-rich will avoid such a tax like the plague and shape any legislation to avoid affecting them. The super-rich employs an army of pencil pushers and experts with only one intention and that is to exploit loopholes in the tax code.

It is difficult to ignore how our government has battered small businesses since Covid-19 entered the picture. The one thing you can count on is that it is more about giving the impression we are now asking, no, requiring the wealthy elite to give back some of the wealth showered upon them. If that were ever to happen, which I doubt, we can expect to be told to stop criticizing them for taking so much. All in all, I call this noise about a billionaire tax bullshit.  Pigs will likely sprout wings and fly before anything gets done to address the true causes behind inequality, tomorrow politicians will be off on another tangent. 

 

 (Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

China Housing Market Is On Life Support

We must understand the housing market in China to fully comprehend how wealth is stored by many people in China. To those looking in from the outside, the housing market in China appears a house of cards ready to collapse at any minute. It is also a market sector that has become greatly oversized that it may now account for 25% or more of China's GDP. Because it has become so ingrained in China's economy we find that the Chinese government has no choice but to shore it up while at the same time trying not to encourage its growth. 

Prices Have Soared In Top Tier Markets

China has over 680 cities but four are considered to "rule supreme" and are viewed as the best; Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. As in many countries, the supply of housing falls well short of demand in the top cities, leaving many people increasingly stretched to buy there. The average price for a one-bedroom apartment in Shanghai is nudging towards $1 million. The  job magnet metropolis of Shenzhen is no bargain either, at about $700,000 for a flat.

A clear sign something is wrong is evident in the findings of an analyst for economic research firm Rhodium Group that estimates around 90 million apartments across China are sitting vacant. This indicates a huge oversupply in some areas of the country and unaffordable homes in certain cities. For years, developers have put up large apartment blocks in isolated parts of China. This was done because the land is less expensive in these areas and under the concept "if you build it they will come," but often, they have not. 

China's Housing And Iron Ore

Yes, people bought these apartments, which still remain empty, as investments because housing prices in China have a history of rapid price appreciation. Earlier I referenced this market as a house of cards, maybe the term, Ponzi scheme, might be more appropriate.  This is why recently some commentators have pondered whether the collapse of the world's most indebted company, Chinese property giant Evergrande, will doom China's economy and spillover across the globe. To be clear, Evergrande's meltdown is partly due to a cooling in demand for new projects in smaller cities.

China's Government Pulls The Strings

To fully understand the importance of real estate we must look at the figures, China's property market is worth around $US60 trillion ($83 trillion). The property market represents about 25 percent of GDP and is where 62 percent of household wealth is being held and by its nature, it is deeply interwoven with shadow banking. Any drop in real estate values would have huge ramifications. Deeming many of those 90 million vacate apartments as uninhabitable and possibly worthless would be a very big deal. It would not only impact the wealth of millions of Chinese citizens and companies but also shake faith in the whole Chinese economy and financial sector.

The  government of China has been concerned over rising house prices for years.  Following the Central Economic Work Conference in December of 2016, it issued a statement saying,  "Houses are built to be inhabited, not for speculation." Over the years low investment returns in the real economy and easy credit have triggered excessive growth in property prices in China and attracted too many financial resources to the real estate sector. Despite efforts by the government to cool this market and moderate property prices, market sentiment has remained robust partly due to a lack of other good investment options.

Typical Upscale Housing Development In China

As a contractor and being heavily invested in real estate, I was thinking about how "draw systems" work. This has to do with how a certain percentage of the cost of construction is shelled out as each stage of construction is completed. This is done partially to make sure projects are actually completed. Please note, much of the money spent on constructing a housing unit is spent in finishing, many people give this little thought.

Years ago Home Depot was excited about entering and developing the massive market in China because apartments are sold by the developer at the "roughed in" stage with no interior. You might know Home Depot cut and ran after a few years adding to the list of American companies that failed in China. Home Depot has blamed their bad experience on not understanding the Chinese culture. After reading this article you may question both the quality and just how well many of the housing units in China have been finished. The fact is, many will never get "finished" or occupied. 

In trying to understand the massive housing market that drives much of China's growth it is important to realize that people in China buy apartment units that are only roughed in. This means the buyer is essentially purchasing what we in America would call an "empty shell" or an unfinished apartment. In most cases, apartments are sold with internal walls and electrical outlets in place but everything else, including doors, flooring, and bathroom fixtures will need to be built out by the owner after purchase. Understandably, this created a great deal of excitement for a company like Home Depot that sells the "rest of the package" in a way that can be a one-stop answer for any home buyer.    

A close look at housing in China and the customs under which deals are completed will give Americans some real surprises. Getting information on this subject is not as easy.  It takes a bit of digging and research to better understand the internal workings of China and how its real estate system functions. Unlike property and housing ownership in America and other western countries, all property in China is simply being leased for 70-years. Also, the various procedures and steps Americans take for granted when purchasing a property such as; due diligence, housing inspections, and secure escrow accounts simply do not exist. 

The lease is supposed to renew automatically upon expiration, this might unnerve many buyers that know the Chinese government's relatively new Ministry of Housing and Construction retains full "property prerogatives," meaning that leases can be nullified at any time if the government determines that it needs that property for any reason. In addition, the government is also entirely free to decide how much compensation should be offered for that property in the event the land your apartment happens to be located on is reclaimed by the state. Residents now have the right to sue the government if they feel they receive unfair compensation, but they rarely win in court. 

The Trends Shown In This 2016 Chart Continue

It could be said cheap housing is something you won't find in China. While many of these units are poorly built, they are not cheap. China's housing market is among the most expensive in the world when compared to per capita income. To be honest, the numbers I found are all over the board. For example, the average price of housing in New York City is around $1,000 per square foot with an average family income of $76,000 per year. By comparison, the average cost of housing in Shanghai for the year 2021 is around $1,200 a sq. ft. against an average family income of around $10,000. By American standards most apartments are small, no more than 30 percent of all new apartments can be larger than 90 square meters (970 square feet).

China Gives Savers Few Good Options

China is a place where the rules affecting value can change with little notice, until now investors have ridden the housing train to Profitville. How long this can go on is questionable. Global Property Guide notes on the information they post that China has poor house price statistics. They go on to state, the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) has monthly house price time-series starting January 2011 but only until August 2013. 

On Quora, back in 2015, Mike Lim, who worked in Shanghai reported of colleges that earned around $700 a month selling apartments for around $5,000 a sq. foot and driving to work in a 3 series BMW and carrying LV bags and totting the latest iPhones. He stated, since the late 1990s to early 2000, there have been many forced relocations to free up inner-city locations for development. New apartments are then allocated to these households and often a mid-sized family (e.g. two grandparents, two parents, one kid) could get 3 new apartments. Couples have been known to divorce just to get another apartment! Now with these 3 apartments, they usually occupy one, rent out the second and sell the third. 

Aside from the disagreement over the stability of China's housing market, it should be noted that foreigners may only purchase apartments to live in for personal use and not to rent out. Virtually no secondary market exists to sell into if you decide to relocate. When someone in China seeks to buy an apartment few give much consideration to anything but new construction. Still, most bizarre is that for such a large market, legal protections and real estate standards are not yet well-established.

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)