Advancing Time: Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into ...

Advancing Time: Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into ...: The war in Ukraine has expanded into Russia. This expansion highlights an unlimited amount of propaganda is being dumped upon us. Most of th...

Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into Russia"

The war in Ukraine has expanded into Russia. This expansion highlights an unlimited amount of propaganda is being dumped upon us. Most of the media, with or without an agenda, have presented us with a rather one-sided view of what is occurring on the ground. Some claim Putin is on his last leg and about to crumble, others take the stand a desperate Ukraine's venture into Kursk is a suicide mission. Anyway you look at the situation "over there," most people would argue peace would be a better option.

 

From the get-go, I have taken the stand and warned pushing Putin into such a war was a bad idea in that a war in his backyard gave Russia a huge home-field advantage. To make matters worse, this war was and is totally unnecessary. As this has unfolded, I feel, the views of Colonel Douglas Macgregor probably give us a good picture of what is occurring on the ground. His take on, the mismatch of forces, the motivation, and the strategy seem to closely match reality.

In this latest update from the Kursk battlefield, Colonel Macgregor offered a detailed analysis of Russia's overwhelming counterattacks and Ukraine's staggering losses. As the 'Kursk Curse' unfolds as Russian forces are leveraging superior artillery and air power to dismantle Ukraine's offensive strategies. From the failed advances in Komarovka to the destruction of Ukrainian armored divisions, the battlefield remains a pivotal front in the ongoing conflict. It appears that Russia's elite units, like the Akhmat group, continue to sabotage and counter Ukraine's deep penetration raids. 

This is leading to record-breaking casualties. Macgregor explains the brutal reality and devastating impact of Russia’s precision strikes and how the incursion into Kursk may enraged and galvanized the Russian people behind Putin. Rather than pressuring Putin to end the madness, Macgregor holds the view that more than a few Russians think Russia has not been aggressive enough and should ramp up its efforts to crush Ukraine. 

Bubbling up through the forces that bring us to war is the stupid and shameful myth that it is good for the economy. While war does line the pockets of a few industrialists and businessmen the cost is great and outweighs the benefits. Warfare often fails to be either easy, swift, or true. For proof, we need only look at the millions of people displaced and forced to flee war-torn areas, these refugees, and the countries they flee to, often pay the price for the billions of dollars of military hardware produced at a profit and pumped into countries across the world. 

 

Those of you who have accepted, hook, line, and sinker, the view Putin is a thug and a bully should remember beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Please consider that Putin resurrected the crumbling Russian empire into a nation-state with coherence and purpose. He is credited with halting the theft of his country’s wealth by the plutocracy and restoring Russia's military strength. Putin's biggest sin may have been that with blunt rhetoric he refused to accept for Russia a subservient role in an American-run world led by foreign politicians and business leaders.

 

It does not stand as a monument of our virtue that many Western leaders have stirred the pot of war and added to world strife. Many of the same so-called "warmongers" are hellbent on turning Ukraine into a major war whether the countries involved want it or not. History shows what has become known as "proxy wars" create profits for companies manufacturing weapons. The cost, of course, is then pawned off on taxpayers and a public preoccupied with personal concerns. In this case, we should be concerned that these fools are playing with fire. This has little to do with Russia taking over the world or Ukraine's national sovereignty. It is about money, energy, and power.

Somewhere in the minds of rational people should reside the idea that warfare has proven to be a pathetic option to bring about positive change, it may change things, but to what degree and for how long. The loss of life of an individual is often insignificant except to their loved ones. One of the harsh realities of modern war is that it has become a less personal way to die.  Beyond that ugly reality is the fact war carries with it many hidden costs. At this point, we can only pray that the warmongers among us do not turn this into World War III. 

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Product...

Advancing Time: A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Product...: America made a major mistake pushing higher wages instead of pushing productivity. This started years ago as a solution to growing inequali...

A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Productivity

America made a major mistake pushing higher wages instead of pushing productivity. This started years ago as a solution to growing inequality. Increased productivity tends to lower the price of goods and inflation. It could be argued that higher wages are a chief contributor in causing America to become less competitive in the global market, productivity matters. 

The trade deficit has exploded and much of the reason is based on other countries being able to produce goods at far lower cost. High wages have only widened the advantage low-income countries have over America in producing less expensive goods. Of course, it is not the only factor, a slew of regulations and things such as high healthcare costs also feed into this. 

Over the last several decades this has resulted in a hollowing out of America's middle-class as companies shifted production overseas. Years ago Trump cut the tax on large companies in an effort to bring jobs back to America. A big reason this was not as successful as we hoped is that over-regulation and healthcare costs in America trump an advantage the tax cut provided.

America's trade deficit has been widening, again. The U.S. international trade deficit widened 0.8% in May to $75.1 billion. This is the largest deficit since October 2022. The numbers from the last several years highlight that for all the commotion it created, the trade war with China has failed to bring down the trade deficit.

As for productivity, for years businesses shouted they were seeing huge gains in productivity but the truth is that productivity can be difficult to measure. Sagging productivity is tied directly to the idea we may be looking at stagflation. Today supply chain disruptions and other problems continue to take a bite out of productivity, 

New systems touted as gains, can carry with them a lot of negatives. With the onslaught of computers and word processing the garbage in garbage out pipeline has exploded. This has resulted in a simple search for information dropping the person searching into a loop that circles back upon itself and rendering little in the way of helpful information. 

An example of more is not always better is evident in the way government is constantly growing. It is not uncommon for laws and bills flowing from Washington to run thousands of pages in length. Ironically, while the old way of typing and copying was inefficient compared to modern methods, it did limit the number of pages a person could create. 

Truth be told, many of us have wasted a full day or more on a machine that is malfunctioning or refuses to do our bidding. The idea we save time by not fixing something discounts the cost and waste created when we are forced to throw away an item that still or should have a great deal of useful value. Sometimes I have to wonder whether people will ever look up from their cell phones long enough to realize a lot of things are not working and complicated is not always better.

Another issue acting as a double-edged sword on productivity is the "Amazon business model." The inefficiency of shipping products directly to consumers is a subject raised here on AdvancingTime in a recent post. This inefficiency was hammered home on December 26th and 27th on NBC news. While the news did not blame Amazon directly it attacked the wasteful process of selling online. 

The NBC piece looked strongly at how new products purchased online were often returned and at the cost to a business for taking these items back. It reported it cost $33 to take back an item sold for $50 and how this is crushing profit margins. NBC went on to detail how many of these items end up in landfills and were never used. Waste may add to America's GDP but should be considered a huge negative to the American economy.

As a side note, it should be mentioned that many of these items ending up in landfills unused were manufactured in China. How ironic, the fact we buy so much from China rather than making more goods at home is one of the reasons for the current supply chain debacle. There is a slang expression we sometimes hear people say, "You can't make this shit up." This idiom is used to describe a situation, event, or action that is or seems especially bizarre, surreal, or hard to believe.

To put this in context, Americans send their wealth overseas to buy the goods our system is designed to throw away. It is a sad situation that we live in a world where our political leaders cheer waste since it adds to the GDP. Simply put, raising wages without a corresponding rise in productivity hurts more than it helps.

 

Footnote; Information from the following articles fed into this post.

1.  https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/list-of-supply-chain-shortages-f9adc4e41967
2.  https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/12/amazon-predatory-monster-unleashed-upon.html
3. https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-dreadful-c-word-conserve.html
   

  

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Shades Of 1987 Real Estate Market May Surface In 2030

Advancing Time: Shades Of 1987 Real Estate Market May Surface In 2030: When it comes to the real estate market, shades of 1987 could resurface around 2030. If the long end of the interest rate yield curve remai...

Shades Of 1987 Real Estate Market May Surface In 2030

When it comes to the real estate market, shades of 1987 could resurface around 2030. If the long end of the interest rate yield curve remains elevated or moves higher this is the big danger we face. High rates combined with a market where offices and retail space appear to be overbuilt may halt this type of new construction for the next few years. This has the potential to turn a glut into a shortage, especially if a lot of the current stock is demolished.

When new construction slows faster than demand falls the relationship between supply and demand hammers its way home. Those of us who had to lease space in the mid-80s ran smack dab into a wall of high prices and a lack of availability. For many small businesses finding space to lease in 1987 was very difficult. As you might expect, this sent the price of buildings soaring.

In some areas, the shortage of space for lease got to the point where it generated a bidding war. This was a direct result of high interest rates and other actions taken in 1979 and 1980 to coral inflation. Making it more difficult to build means that after a few years, all excess supply vanishes from the market.  

It is also possible that America may be in the process of even moving residential rates off of long-term rates and pushing to more flexible rates. Such a change would also pose long-term ramifications. Central banks have far more ability to affect near-term rates than those several years away. The rates charged on longer loans are more at the mercy of investors and their perception of future inflation.

This is particularly true if the Fed moves away from purchasing mortgage-backed securities. In short, new construction suffers during times of high interest rates. This tends to create supply shortages over time which at some point fuels an additional boom in new supply. A key question is where we are  in this cycle. Remember the cycle is not the same in all countries, in this case, I'm focusing on here in America. 

Another factor is the cost of future construction and the idea prices will not fall and will most likely rise. DIY with Dave, takes the stand that, lumber prices have been relatively low and stable for the past few years but things are changing. In a video, he makes the case that the stage is now set for huge lumber price increases if use rapidly picks up. He explains how mill closures are impacting the capacity of the lumber market and how that could lead to huge price spikes in the future. 

Of course, lumber is not the only cost factoring into new construction cost. Government regulations, utility hookups, labor, insurance, and more all feed into this. It is difficult to make a case that any of these are about to fall. While buildings are notoriously expensive to maintain, building them from scratch continues to look more so.

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Many New "Unaffordable Apartments" Coming Online

Advancing Time: Many New "Unaffordable Apartments" Coming Online: Americans are not only seeing, but constantly being reminded a slew of new apartments are about to come online. Most people hope this will ...