Advancing Time

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Advancing Time: Retail Sector Is The "Soft Underbelly" Of The Economy

Advancing Time: Retail Sector Is The "Soft Underbelly" Of The Economy: Prepare for Retail Apocalypse Part II. While this could be considered a continuation of a trend that started years ago the number of closur...

Retail Sector Is The "Soft Underbelly" Of The Economy

Prepare for Retail Apocalypse Part II. While this could be considered a continuation of a trend that started years ago the number of closures about to occur will take things to a whole new level. "Soft underbelly" is a phrase that refers to the most vulnerable part of something, whether it be an organization, a system, or a physical object. This phrase was famously used by Winston Churchill to describe his idea of attacking Germany through Italy during World War II.

Today retailers closing locations across America are about to show retailing is a sector of the economy that has been given far less attention than it merits. Once these locations go empty, many may never again be occupied. This is a continuation of what started prior to the pandemic in response to Amazon and online commerce. The reality of this, for me, comes front and center when I think about the mall across the street from my office losing its last two anchor stores, Macy's and JCPenny. Without them, the mall will be in dire straits.

While the news is focused on Artificial Intelligence, the drums of war, raising the debt ceiling, and speculation on who might run for President in 2024 few people are talking about the coming wave of retail closures. This round of forecloses will be far more devastating than what we saw in the first wave. Analysts estimate that by the end of 2023, the national brick-and-mortar footprint may be reduced by up to 20%. This is due to many retailers leveraging up when interest rates were low. This is exacerbated by the idea a recession is just around the corner.

Where money flows and who it enriches is a key component of economics, the failure to consider this is a blind spot many people have. Already many big box retailers, grocery stores, apparel chains, home goods companies, and big-name businesses like Burger King, GameStop, and Sephora have announced mass store closings in 2023. These companies are rushing to close under-preforming locations in an effort to limit the bleeding on their balance sheets.

Even while they may deny it, consumers are notorious for wasting much of the money they spend on frivolous unnecessary purchases. This means many consumers could cut their spending in a big way without drastically reducing their standard of living. When looking at the policies flowing out of Washington it is clear many politicians seem to have no idea that all consumer spending and purchases are not created equal. The fact is, consumers should take a long look at how their purchases will impact the economy over time.

Empty Buildings Harm Communities

This environment is where the predatory monster known as Amazon comes back to haunt communities. Online purchases in illiquid hard to find specialty items have a lot of merits. It expands our options, however, when used as a way to avoid visiting and buying from local merchants many negative ramifications come home to roost. While touting Amazon as a model of efficiency what people often forget is that its overall business model is far from efficient. Simply put, it is only after many local stores are gone that people will realize the hidden cost of buying online.

Fans of Keynesian economics that encourage government spending to stabilize the economy during a downturn tend to discount the importance that where and how money is spent matters a great deal. While many readers may already be telling themselves, I don't go or shop there anyway, retail closings will result in lots of other small businesses closing their doors. Not only will the retail employees lose their jobs but these stores support many local businesses. The ugly reality is that store retail store closures have a huge impact on communities. This is a cancer that will soon become apparent as rents fall, mortgages go unpaid, commercial real estate values fall, and the local tax base shrinks away. Defaults on loans and bonds in conjunction with the reduced local property taxes will also add to the pain.

Two recent videos warn we are likely to surpass the number of closures seen during the pandemic when thousands of businesses collapsed. In the first, Clayton Morris delves into some of the chains shuttering locations. He focuses on 20 big retailers in the process of closing down https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAVWx_T6f6I In the other video is from City Prepping, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlXM8AA9g7I it comes with the warning this will be big. The fella does an excellent job of putting into focus the many issues about to descend upon much of the retailing sector.

Expect To See Less New construction

To make matters worse, this comes at a time when the boom in new restaurant construction based on easy cheap money is coming to an end. High labor cost, sluggish sales, shoplifting, and higher interest rates are all taking their toll on retailers. These factors have many retailers on their heels. Adding to the problem is the Fed's high-interest rates have put pressure on small, or should we say most, banks in a position where they are cutting back on loaning out money to marshal their funds. These challenges also extend deep into the small business environment and communities.

When all is said and done, this is an area that is vulnerable as consumer spending continues to weaken. This is not about having enough places to buy goods. It is about the sustainability of real estate prices, jobs, and the overall financial health of our communities. Considering retailing accounts for roughly 10 million jobs this is significant. When coupled with the current glut of office space it is easy to see that this is a harbinger of things to come.

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

AI Fakes Makes It More Important To Question Everything

A recent market blip occurred when an AI-generated photo indicated an attack had taken place. This underlines the potential problems and dangers this new technology presents. How do we know what is real when fake photos have become so easy to generate? Even voices can be easily replicated. Below is a copy of an article that ran on AdvancingTime on April 22, 2018, focused on this subject. It delves into how computer-generated models and images blur reality. It could even be used to make President Biden appear competent.

Computer-Generated Models And Images Blur Reality

Computer-generated models and images have advanced to where they blur reality and diminish the need for humans to act as spokespeople or to represent organizations. Back in 2011 Swedish fashion chain H&M admitted to using computer-generated models to showcase collections on its website. Since that time the ability to create computer-generated images has only gotten better. We have advanced to where it is difficult, no, it would be more accurate to say impossible to always know if what you are seeing is really a person or simply the image of one. Drilling down into this issue forces us to where creativity, marketing, and price-point intersect and that has huge implications for society going forward. This brings front and center the question of what to believe in a world of fake news and false flags where what we create is limited only by our imagination.

Real Or Not? Click here to take the test

The virtual models H&M generated look completely human, but upon inspection, if you look closely, they might all have the same body shape and pose with a real model's head superimposed on the body where the skin tone has been digitally altered to match her complexion. This step where the company has gone past "photoshopping" has created a bit of controversy with H&M drawing criticism for creating a false reality for its customers and creating an unrealistic body image for women to live up to. At the time Swedish website Aftonbladet first noticed the uncanny similarities of the models. Hacan Andersson, a spokesman from H&M, confirmed this by saying:

"It's not a real body, it is completely virtual and made by the computer. We take pictures of the clothes on a doll that stands in the shop, and then create the human appearance with a program on a computer."

Andersson argued the company made the choice to use the images of computer-generated models because it simplified the process of the photo shoot and also that it allowed customers to focus on the clothes rather than the models. He acknowledged, "The result is strange to look at, but the message is clear: buy our clothes, not our models."

The Fact Is Computer-Generated Images Often Appear More Real Than Reality

Computer-generated imagery, more commonly known as CGI, encompasses the tricks and the ability to generate and manipulate images. This creates some interesting possibilities going forward as well as greasing an already slippery slope with endless possibilities. Eventually, this could lead to a form of "Photoshop" on steroids. Anyone familiar with Photoshop knows it delivers the magic that helps people bring their creative vision to life. By editing raw image files and photos by using state-of-the-art photo editing not only can people create compelling high-dynamic-range images (HDRI) that can be used for a variety of purposes but can also mislead viewers as to what is real.

It appears this is just the beginning, by adding distinct characteristics from individuals that society views in a very positive light to a CGI it is not difficult to imagine that we might extend some of that same positive feeling to that image. If this is true then it is not difficult to envision both politicians and others "scrubbing" their voice and persona ever so slightly as to improve the impact they have on advancing their cause. Slowing their speech, deepening the tone of their voice, and shaving off a few unwanted pounds. Manipulating people in this way could be looked at as a form of propaganda but in reality, it is only one step farther than we already go when we do extreme editing of a news clip to sway public opinion.

The future of TV news could be very different in that it could be completely computer-generated. Take for instance, the many imitation sounds engineered into some electronic keyboards today. While an audiophile may be able to tell the difference the average listener can not and most people don't care if it results in a less expensive download for their iPod. Since the same thing can be said about music and even art this can be scary, especially if you are the person suddenly discovering that a robot could take your job. In Vegas, stage shows used to all have live orchestras but now many musicians have a difficult time finding work on the strip. We have also seen the electronic equivalent of human-generated music gain a foothold as a genre and become a market all its own. Voice actors are already feeling the heat as the encroachment of synthetic voices hit the industrial/corporate market and push into audiobooks.

The ability to produce a human-sounding voice with all the inflections, nuances, and timing that makes it interesting often requires as much technical artistry from a software engineer as it does from an experienced voice actor, however, at some point computers will be able to take over and perform this task as routine. This should not come as a surprise to anyone who has been watching recent trends in technology. A quick search for the words "voiceover" and "computer voice" will bring you rapidly up to speed. Apple has even designed into its iPhone a feature called voiceover which the visually impaired find very valuable, it reads the words on the screen out loud in what Apple calls a "spoken English interface."

Keep in mind much of this is increasingly happening beneath the surface in places we seldom see. The fact is we now have computers that sound more human than humans and on a positive note speak more clearly. It is not difficult imagining such figures saving media networks money by delivering the news. All this takes us to a time in the future when computers have the ability to generate images that deliver dialog and can act with emotion. By mimicking figures of the past or their best qualities and traits, it would be possible to create false figures with compelling personalities. Sadly, the future may be a place where knowing what is real and what is false may become difficult to determine and perceive. This makes this sometimes deceptive and potentially dangerous area of technology ripe for abuse.

Footnote; In life, most people never meet or hear their Senator or President speak in person, this means a "gentle concealed" enhancement could go a long way to make them appear more appealing. It is important to consider that if this technology can be used to enhance the stature of a person it could also be used to diminish their standing or even as a tool for character assassination.

Footnote #2; If you did not hit the "Click here to take the test" line under the image of 25 Years Of Photoshop it is a highly recommended exercise.

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Advancing Time: You Are Not Alone, Anger Is Building Across The Wo...

Advancing Time: You Are Not Alone, Anger Is Building Across The Wo...: You are not alone if you are tired of watching your government grow increasingly oppressive and corrupt. Many people across the world share ...