Advancing Time: Economic Feast or Famine Ahead? Opinions Vary

Advancing Time: Economic Feast or Famine Ahead? Opinions Vary: Opinions wildly vary following the Presidential election as to whether we are facing an economic feast or famine. There is the notion the st...

Economic Feast or Famine Ahead? Opinions Vary

Opinions wildly vary following the Presidential election as to whether we are facing an economic feast or famine. There is the notion the stock market will continue to melt up with Trump riding to rescue America's economy. He is doing this with his new best friend Elon. This of course discounts the idea momentum is to the downside and the bull market in stocks is long in the tooth.  

What some economic pendants refer to as the "everything bubble" has propelled the wealth effect forward at the same time higher interest rates have bolstered the spending of savers. It is important to remember that much of this economy has been built on this so-called "wealth effect" which has over the years come off the rails leading to economic crisis.

This leaves the question of, where things go from here. These include the effects of inflation or deflation and how they are destined to play out. Below are a few of the factors being spun by those making a bullish or bear case:

The government deficit and spending is out of control and must be cut

Tax cuts may stimulate the economy and consumer spending but may result in a larger deficit

Cutting government spending will cause many government layoffs adding to unemployment

Janet Yellen financed America's debt with short-term notes and a lot of debt needs to be rolled over

Government workers, many in unions, will be demanding huge wage increases driving inflation higher.

Increased sovereign debt will drive long-term bond yields higher.

A healthy economy flows from a vibrant middle-class based on the small businesses that we have destroyed.  

Trump not known for his spending restraint, has benefited from inflation, will he now save the masses?

Will egomaniac Elon Musk with his history of feeding at the government trough put America first?

Expanding the money supply faster than the supply of goods debases fiat currencies.

Promises of higher productivity "without cutting jobs" are easier said than done. 

Bringing companies and jobs home is good for America but tariffs come with some cost to consumers 

Many of the things RFK is correctly advocating to make America healthy will impact company profits.

My point is that many of us who watch the economy don't agree on where things are going. The above factors and many more feed into this and the course forward may be volatile. In short, turning around many of the strong negative trends haunting America will not be easy. This will be difficult and akin to turning around a battleship in a bathtub. 

A Paul Gabrial, Everything Money video titled; "My Brutally Honest Thoughts On The Great Melt Up" recently promoted his own views about a Clear Value Tax video series called “The Great Melt Up” claiming his  message needed to be heard by the masses. The reason I mention this video is it does an interesting job of highlighting the problems ahead.

The effect of the concentration of wealth that has occurred has yet to be felt. We should also remember the GDP is a rather worthless gauge of economic growth considering it includes things such as non-productive government spending. It is difficult to argue the economic effect and the kind of growth flowing from the soaring debt after the Covid nightmare has been fully felt but easy to argue little good will come from it. 

Of course, this only fueled a surge in the concentration in wealth and inequality that started long ago. Note the CEO-to-worker compensation ratio in America and how it has exploded over the years.: 1965 : 20.4 --- 1975 : 26.6 --- 1985 : 50.5 --- 1995 : 118.8 --- 2005 : 318.4 --- 2015 : 318.8 --- 2021 : 389 All this has been make worse by hollowing out America's middle-class by sending manufacturing jobs overseas.

President-elect Donald Trump won the 2024 election in part because working-class voters continued their migration toward the America First populism. For over a decade I have railed against Amazon a company with strong links to the government helping to destroy small businesses and communities. Still, this is a company many Americans continue to support, this proves we the masses are not as smart as we like to pretend. The task facing Donald Trump is fraught with peril. 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Demystifying Macroeconomic Events Is Challenging

Advancing Time: Demystifying Macroeconomic Events Is Challenging: When we take a deep dive into finance, it is like going down a rabbit hole. It is an Alice in Wonderland place where things go here and ther...

Demystifying Macroeconomic Events Is Challenging

When we take a deep dive into finance, it is like going down a rabbit hole. It is an Alice in Wonderland place where things go here and there and then twist back on themselves. This tends to all work like the edge of a cliff, or slipping into an abyss with risks increasing as we move towards the edge which in this case is a debt trap. Since everything moves along until it doesn't the risk of such an event is often discounted until it occurs.

The WTFinance videos or channel is the passion project of Anthony Fatseas. I interpret this to mean he does not pursue it to make money but because he enjoys pursuing economic and financial truth. In a recent episode of the WTFinance podcast,  Anthony had the pleasure of welcoming back Alasdair Macleod. Alasdair the Head of Research for Goldmoney.  

The reason this merits mentioning is because Mr. Macleod over many years has formed a lot of well-based views. Most sovereign fiat currencies are in a debt trap and politicians are showing little interest in reducing spending. One of his insights focuses on the idea that GDP increases based on government spending create the illusion things are better than they really are. 

       SPECULATION FUELS BUBBLES AND DEBT CREATES CRASHES 

Macleod to his credit points out that debt in the public center is the problem, Growing debt in the private sector directed to increasing production is not. Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney and advocates for sound money through demystifying finance and economics. For most of his career in the finance industry, he has centered much of  his efforts on demystifying macroeconomic events for his investing clients.

Mr. Macleod is convinced that the government's unsound monetary policies are a destructive weapon used against the common man and we must protect ourselves from the consequences. While Macleod has a lot of solid well-based views, I contend he may overestimate the UK and underestimate America. The UK is much farther down the path to decline. 

China is selling dollars because it needs to bring in wealth to fill in the holes being exposed as its economy continues to implode. As for the Chinese people's savings, when China's economy implodes much of its citizens' wealth is being sucked into a black hole never to be seen again. An example is, real estate investments gone bad. These investments yield no return and leave only the debt which often goes bad. In short, China has squandered much of the wealth that has flowed from America during the last two decades.

As always, in the comments section of the video, we find a few hidden gems. Such as: "This song was written and sung in the 1970s and here we are 50 years later." We tend to forget that eventually can be a very long time. This comment stands as a monument and reminder that some declines are long in the making. Another comment centered on, and used an interesting term I had not stumbled across before, it goes something like, Financial fuckery will be the death of us. This has occurred across the world and the financialization of everything is destroying the system. 

                        "We Must Always Remember It's A Relitve Game"

Yes, banking should be boring lending to real businesses that make stuff that results in true economic growth, but it has evolved into something else. True productivity has become masked by financial gimmickry, and the economy has become a fake facade, leaving rational economic watchers to question, "where's the beef?"

Across the world, a game is being played to take the wealth generated by the working classes and transfer it to governments, this is evident in soaring national deficits and debt. This is so they can continue playing the game of appropriating it to their minions. In this case, I'm using the term "minion" in reference to, or to mean those who obey or do their bidding and follow their orders. As such, governments become the "boss" with the people becoming the servants.

Deciphering the economy is not an easy task, it is cluttered with scads of variables. This is evident in the fact economists and financial pendants never reach the same conclusion as to where we are headed. A system based on currency debasement, the wealth effect, money passively invested into retirement funds, and financial engineering through stock buybacks all add to the growth of risk. Yes, eventually, the "Fed put" based on pouring the fuel of liquidity on the fire will prove problematic.

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)