Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Biden's Ukrainian "Putin Push" May Lead To World War III

NATO Has Slowly Expanded Towards Russia

Biden was in charge of much of the "Ukraine project" during Obama's time in office. In recent weeks President Biden has been saying some rather mean-spirited things about Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Now Russian state sources are alleging that Washington under the Biden administration is ramping up military aid to Ukraine. This comes after the media observed the Ocean Glory, a US cargo ship, began delivering 350 tonnes of military equipment, including tactical vehicles, at Ukraine's Odessa port. Ukraine's Dumskaya news agency said the American vessel carried at least 35 US military humvees for Ukrainian national forces. 

Adding Ukraine to NATO and the EU is a long-held dream of neocons like Victoria Nuland and neoliberals like Biden. This is also important to those supporting the World Economic Forum’s desire to expand the EU and encircle Russia. They feel such an action would disrupt any dreams of Eurasian integration which could resist their strategy to reshape the way the world is governed. Putin’s foreign policy, coupled with efforts to rebuild the Russian military, has been part of an effort by the former KGB officer to boost Russia's standing on the world stage. This has helped make him popular with his people even as Nato has slowly been expanding in the direction of Russia, but also makes him a thorn in the side of the NWO gang. 

Interestingly, this delivery of military equipment occurred near the time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, was signing Decree No. 117/2021. The decree activates the Ukraine Army to recapture and re-unify with Ukraine, the autonomous region of Crimea, and the city of Sevastopol. The military has been instructed to use “hybrid warfare” to re-conquer these former parts of Ukraine. In short, this means Ukraine declared war on Russia, certainly something it would never consider without major backing. It must be noted, his actions are in total conflict with his promise to end the now nearly seven-year-long war in eastern Ukraine that played a central role in his election in 2019. This indicates, Zelensky has continued to subordinate his government’s policies to the US- and NATO-led war drive against Russia.

One Ukrainian blogger contends the censorship of the three opposition channels in Ukraine and the surprise inspection of Ukrainian army units in Donbas link all this together and signals a resumption of the Donbas conflict. He wrote on his Telegram channel, “Protecting his rear through censorship, Zelensky ordered to start an inspection of the AFU units in Donbas in order to establish their readiness to carry out the orders of the military command." He then went on to say, "Didn’t we warn you last year that the regime was preparing for a major war? All we had to do was wait for the green light from higher authorities.”

Upping tensions in the area is the fact the Kerch Strait Bridge, also known as the Crimean Bridge, is now a target and we will certainly see Russian moves to protect it. Comprised of a pair of Russian-constructed parallel bridges it spans the Strait of Kerch between the Taman Peninsula and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea. The bridge complex provides for both road and rail traffic and has a length of 19 km. This makes it the longest bridge Russia has ever built. 

It is difficult not to tie this to the controversial Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project which Viktor Zubkov, chairman of the board of directors of Russia's gas giant Gazprom, claims, will definitely be completed this year. He said on Friday, Biden's goal is to stop the pipeline and the U.S. is now targeting anyone helping the project's completion in any way. So far, around 90-92 percent of the work required for the project is complete. Earlier this year, Gazprom warned investors that the Nord Stream 2 project could be suspended or entirely discontinued due to extraordinary circumstances, including "political pressure."

War In Ukraine Is About Money, Energy, And Power!

As to what really motivates the desire to turn Ukraine into a giant-killing field, several possibilities exist but money and profit should not be ruled out. Foreign policy has often been used as a tool to advance national interest which is often dictated by economics. When it comes to the economy energy is often considered the blood from which all strength flows and in the case of Europe the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline which after completion will carry natural gas from Russia to Germany is a bone of contention. Years ago leaders from Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania signed an open letter to the parliaments of the EU warning them against the construction of NS2 and cautioned them of how it is not a commercial project but one designed to increase their energy reliance on Moscow.

At that time, Russia's Gazprom supplied the European Union and Turkey with a record 162 billion cubic meters of gas. Of that gas, 86 billion cubic meters flowed across Ukraine. Those opposed to the new pipeline make a strong case that "Gazprom" is not only a gas company but a platform for Russian coercion and another tool for Russia to pressure European countries. The U.S. State Department has even threatened European corporations they will likely face penalties if they participate in the construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, on the grounds that "the project undermines energy security in Europe."

Circling back to the conflict, years ago I wrote a piece that urged America to stay out of a war in Ukraine. It warned of the major advantage Putin held by having a huge well-armed army just across the Ukrainian border and that any army cobbled together to face him would most likely be unenthusiastic and politically troubled at best. At the time President Obama had pulled out all the stops to paint Putin with a brush dipped in all the bad colors. Every Sunday in interview after interview Washington experts were paraded across the screens of the talk shows that tell Americans what is happening in our nation's capital and every single one of them denounced Putin as a "thug and a bully."

Ukrainian Soldiers Killed In An Unwinnable War

In that piece were accounts of reports from the front in Ukraine often buried or hidden from public view but they appeared to confirm that Ukrainian troops were being sent into a meat grinder. The drafted include men up to 60 years old with only a month of training before they reluctantly go off to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Putting more weapons into the hands of those unmotivated to fight for their corrupt state is merely adding fuel to this fire and doing more harm than good. Again, remember Ukraine is a financially failed state and while we can point to its potential, its massive oil and gas reserves by all rights should belong to the people and for their benefit. The IMF, however, points out that Kyiv needs billion in loans and grants just to stabilize its economy after more than twenty years of massive levels of corruption. This debt and the deep, deep hole Ukrainians have dug themselves into flows from a series of bad governments after Kyiv became independent of the Soviet Union.

Back then, the euro-zone faced a lot of problems without jumping into a proxy war against rebels in Ukraine. I use the term proxy because without the money and backing of outsiders things would most likely go quiet. The failed and bankrupt country of Ukraine would most likely break into two parts with the eastern half and its people who share strong ties with Russia aligning itself with that country and Kyiv, and the western-oriented portion of the country drifting towards stronger ties to the euro-zone. What is the big problem with such a solution? Apparently, a great deal for people like Biden in Washington that are pushing for intervention in Ukraine. 

To confuse the issue and muddy the waters great efforts have been made at high levels by those advocating military action to paint Russia as an aggressor. These forces aided by the media continue to link Russias move into the majority ethnic-Russian Crimea region as a violation of Ukraine's sovereign border. In this case, we should remember, the whole concept of sovereign borders is a little gem promoted by those in power, these borders are a creation of man and not visible to the birds flying above. This is an argument of convenience that masks deeper issues and the difference between "terrorist" and "freedom fighters" often depends on a person's point of view. In this case, it is clearly the new American-backed government in Kyiv that is pushing to bring the eastern part of Ukraine back into the fold.

What this boils down to is that American companies want to sell and supply Europe with Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and seem willing to start a war to make it happen. Whether it is for profit or to minimize the threat of natural gas shipments to Europe being cut off and used as a key weapon in Russia’s political arsenal we cannot ignore the idea more is at play here than just doing the "right thing". Many people in the "Tin Foil Hat" community have gone so far as to indicate they feel that America and elements of the CIA were involved or had a part in the overthrow of the former corrupt Ukraine government and its replacement with another corrupt but more pro Europe regime. At the time even America's Vice President, Joe Biden, saw his son join the board of a private Ukrainian oil and natural gas company. One thing is clear, not only those involved in selling energy to Europe will profit from this but also the military-industrial complex stands to gain.

The odds of U.S. LNG significantly displacing Russian natural gas shipped by pipeline are slim. Piped gas sells at a large discount to LNG, which must be cooled to liquid form, shipped overseas, and turned back into its gaseous form. Poland recently received its first shipment of U.S. LNG. While LNG trade between the United States and Europe would help reduce the U.S. trade deficit it also stands to improve energy security among the European countries by giving them an alternative to Russian gas. Everyone must concede it is not a cure-all, Russia can easily cut prices and adjust terms to maintain its dominant position in the European gas market and European countries are likely to continue buying most of their gas from the lowest-cost supplier.

Bottom-line, Russia has traditionally been the major supplier of European gas. But it charges high prices, often in the form of long-term contracts linked to the price of oil. The overwhelming dependence on Russian gas leaves European countries from a national security standpoint vulnerable to a cutoff of crucial natural gas supplies. This would be devastating to their economies at any time but even more so in the depths of winter. For these reasons, it makes sense for Europe to consider alternative supplies and open its doors to U.S. LNG but due to Ukraine's history of corruption flooding the country with weapons and using the people of Ukraine as pawns in this high stakes game violates all standards of human decency.

Americans should also be aware that our current policy drives Russia towards the East and into the open arms of China. This creates even more problems long-term than it solves short-term and borders on the edge of insanity. The war in Ukraine has not developed organically but appears to be the product of meddling. Mercenaries and money from America appear to be backing and propping up Kyiv with America acting as the "champion" for this failed bankrupt country.  The best way for the West and Kyiv to prove they are on the right path is by letting the eastern part of the country seceded and then making Kyiv a center of economic and democratic success. 

I reiterate the stand taken in April 2018, the Ukraine war is about money, energy, and power! Since the latest ceasefire agreement in the war in Donbas was implemented in July 2020, it appears few if anyone is being killed. This indicates rocking the boat is a bad idea. We can only hope those hyping the recent events in Ukraine saying the decree signed by Zelensky will someday be looked back upon at the beginning of World War III are overly pessimistic, after all, when you place two major military powers face to face what could go wrong?

 

 Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog

Monday, March 29, 2021

Japan's Economy Is Again Struggling

Japan. the world's third-largest economy is highly dependent on exports and the reality it is still struggling even after a great deal of America's stimulus money leaked into buying imported goods speaks volumes. While it feels a bit like ancient history, Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 28.8 percent in Q2 of 2020, the biggest decline on record. Even after bouncing back 21.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 12.7 percent in Q4 Japanese national accounts are still lagging behind mid-2019 levels. For all of 2020, spending by households with at least two people fell 5.3% due to the hit from the pandemic. It was down 6.5% for all households, the worst drop since comparable data became available in 2001.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/22583.jpeg
All in all, this means the country is still playing catch up, partly because Japan also experienced two additional quarters of negative growth in Q1 of 2020 and Q4 of 2019. Adding to the problem is Japan’s household spending fell for the first time in three months in December, in a sign consumer sentiment was weakening even before the government called a state of emergency to control a new wave of the coronavirus. Lower demand for services such as travel tours also weighed, as the pandemic forced the cancellation of domestic tourism promotions. Last year, spending on accommodations fell 43.7%, while overseas and domestic tour travel expenditure slumped 85.8% and 61.9%, respectively.

Not only is Japan again struggling to stay out of recession, but it also faces a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing its currency. This means they will be paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on the promises they have made. Japan currently has a debt/GDP ratio of about  240% which is the highest in the industrialized world. With the government financing almost 40 percent of its annual budget through debt it becomes easy to draw comparisons between Greece and Japan. 

Over the years Japan has been able to sidestep default due to the good fortune of sporting a huge trade surplus with America and forming tight economic ties with China during the years it was rapidly growing. Unfortunately, for Japan, the benefit of both those forces may be waning. China has moved up the manufacturing chain and no longer needs Japan as much as it did. This leaves Japan in the unenvious position of having to find new ways to move forward at a time when few friendly trends have surfaced to aid in its endeavor.

The Japanese economy has been no stranger to recessions even before the coronavirus outbreak. In fact, Japan experienced three mild recessions between the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. The first was caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami that rocked Japan in 2011. The other two and single negative growth quarters appeared to be just part of the long stagnation the Japanese economy has been in since its asset price bubble burst in the 1990s. 

In the aftermath of the crisis, Japan amassed a mountain of debt that it carries to this day. Japan's aging population and  shrinking consumer market have made it hard to revive the Japanese economy. The country’s continued reliance on exports and tendency to invest overseas rather than at home have become a big part of what Japan does. For years the now-former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised the country relief through his “Abenomics” economic revival program but it never did lift the country out of stagnation. The Abe administration significantly eased monetary policy and increased government spending, while simultaneously talking about needed structural reforms most of which always seemed to be pushed back or get delayed.

Japan's GDP Is Flat Since 1990 click to enlarge

Not all economists see more deficit spending as the answer to Japan's problems and argue that more spending will only hurt efforts such as the recent consumption tax hike to improve Japan's overall fiscal health. Japan holds the title of having the industrial world’s heaviest public debt burden. Its debt is more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy.

The world's negative-yielding debt hit a record $17 trillion at the start of September, mostly as a result of most Japanese debt trading in negative territory as the Bank Of Japan continues to monetize the country's debt. All this also flows into Japan's stock market where, when we see Japanese shares rise we are now forced to wonder how much of it has to do with Kuroda and the BOJ pumping up Japan's stock market by buying more ETFs. It is difficult to argue that in effect, the BOJ buying stock is not nationalizing Japanese companies. 

The BOJ Owns Nearly 80% Of Japan's ETFs
All this has morphed into a program that seems akin to fraud based on doing "whatever it takes" to give the appearance their economy is moving forward. Following along the line of thought that while there is no way of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion years ago, Ludwig von Mises wrote; "The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." In short, the BOJ now has little choice but to go all-in which strips away any illusion all is well. In some ways, the actions of Japan's central bank could be considered nothing more than a new model of "stealth nationalization." This is a course filled with moral hazard.

What we see occurring in Japan stems from a far greater problem than simply slow growth. At some point, reality will set in and the yen will suffer as a result of Japanese policies. For many years Japan's relationship with China has bolstered the yen. The collapse of the yen would debunk the myth that major currencies in our modern world are immune to failure and release a slew of new problems across the world. While this has been expected for some time it most likely will not be the catalyst for global financial collapse since the yen constitutes around only 4% of the world's reserve currency, however, it would gravely wound fiat currencies and alter how they are viewed. 

Factoring into all of this, in September of 2020, Yoshihide Suga, became Japan’s new prime minister. Suga took over from 65-year-old Shinzo Abe, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, who resigned due to health reasons. On the domestic stage, Suga inherits a troubled agenda swamped by the coronavirus pandemic, he also has to deal with the disaster of the postponed Tokyo Olympics. As the leader of one of America’s closest allies he also has to navigate a tense geopolitical climate resulting from the rapidly deteriorating U.S.-China relations and the idea Japan wants the U.S. to deter China’s military aggression in Asia.”

Borrowing a huge part of a nation's economic output every year to prop up the status quo is akin to putting a Band-Aid over a wound, that in this case, is rapidly growing larger. In short, Japan's flawed prescription for future growth will never work. Many of the policies that have failed in Japan over the decades are now being played out across the world. Interestingly, over time, the "Japanification" of the world's economy may play out far worse for the global financial system than it did for Japan.

 

Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog

Sunday, March 28, 2021

New Infrastructure Will Not Come Good, Fast, And Cheap

Anyone naive enough to think America is about to receive a big gift of newfangled "fixed installations" needed in order to function should look long and hard at what is really being proposed. The "underlying structure" a country and the economy rely upon includes things such as roads, bridges, dams, water and sewer systems, railways and subways, airports, and harbors. None of these things are cheap to construct and when it comes to infrastructure the words, good, fast, and cheap should never be clustered together. While many people see government spending on infrastructure as a job creator and a silver bullet for our ailing economy I would like to raise a word of caution, things are not that simple. The cynical part of me thinks the American people should get ready to get bent over and taken advantage of.

Spending Trillions Likely To Result In An Epic Fail
Now that Biden's massive Covid-19 relief package has been signed into law, talk is moving towards what is next on the agenda, That's where, most likely, his infrastructure plan resides, and this is a plan set to explode the budget. If you think that $1.9 trillion is a lot of money, it pales next to what the Democrats are going to propose as they continue on their spending spree. It appears that Biden wants $3 trillion or more which should scare away moderates such as West Virginia's Joe Manchin but it has not. Not only has Manchin not blinked at $3 trillion in new spending instead, he recently stated Congress should do “everything we possibly can” to pay for it. He said there should be “tax adjustments” to former President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax law to boost revenues, his endorsement of raising the corporate rate from the current 21 percent to at least 25 percent, however, would do little.

The debate over how much we need to spend and on what, could go on for ever but this is not the answer. Please note, this is not "free money" but that message is likely to be ignored in the same way a great deal of the population fails to appreciate that most of the $1.9 trillion has yet to be spent. An example is how screwed up this flow of money can be is apparent in Fort Wayne, Ind. the city announced only days ago it had  hired Homebase, a nationally recognized consulting firm to evaluate “the state of homelessness” in the city and layout a plan to address it. The project should take nine months, the city said. (Funding came through the CARES Act passed in late March of 2020.)

Many people seem to see money flowing from Washington, such as this infrastructure bill, as not costing us anything because the bill is shrouded with the message the project will more than pay for itself over time by creating greater growth. The problem is that when it comes to such spending, politicians often prefer to use such funds on what they view as legacy projects that will shape the future of their area or shiny pet projects that will enrich their cronies. Many of these tend to be rather wasteful and controversial and it is not uncommon to see them plagued by cost overruns.

In truth, when it comes to infrastructure, the Democrats and Republicans are not on the same page. While Republicans may be willing to spend federal money on things like highways, bridges, and airports, many Democrats are interested in using much of this money to build what they call "green infrastructure " and promoting clean energy or things such as electric vehicles. In short, Democrats wish to use this money in a giant experiment to create what they hope will be a more sustainable world. Instead, we should prepare to see more "bridges to nowhere" and wasted spending exists than most taxpayers can imagine.

Monday, March 22, 2021

Powell, Do You Even Know What The Economy Is?

To Clarify, Main Street Is Not Wall Street
After all the destructive policies we have seen coming out of the Eccles Building, it may be time to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, "Do you even know what the economy is?" All the easing and stimulus has taken us to a place we could call Bubbleville. It has bolstered asset prices and speculation but done little to help Main Street or generate a strong economy. This destructive force was unleashed long before Covid-19 came into the picture and hanging our economic misfortunes on the pandemic may sound reasonable but is far from accurate.

History shows that misguided financial policies often end in  a crisis, in this case, it is likely to play out in massive inflation. Milton Friedman knew a bit about this, he said; The government benefits the first from new money creation, massively increases its imbalances, and blames inflation on the last recipients of the new money created, savers and the private sector, so it “solves” the inflation created by the government by taxing citizens again. Inflation is taxation without legislation. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeIeFUJ9EY
A comical Progressive Insurance commercial has a smooth-faced fella going on about his beard and apologizing for how he looks. Finally, a coworker asks him, "Jamie, do you even know what a beard is?" Over the months we have watched Fed Chairman Jerome Powell time and time again cut rates and increase the Fed's balance sheet. This has hurt savers, forced investors into risky investments in search of yield, damaged the dollar, encouraged politicians to spend like drunken sailors, and increased inequality.

The Fed's actions have not demonstrated a thorough understanding of the economy. About to add to the problems on Main Street, anyone watching the news should be well aware that President Biden has come out during the last few days talking about a big tax increase. With the Internal Revenue Service already swinging in the wind and in utter disarray due to the massive number of lane changes it has been forced to make over the last year can the IRS even manage another huge rewrite of the rules without a year or so to catch up? What we are witnessing is insanity at the highest level.

The mind-boggling stupidity of those at the Fed suggesting negative interest rates might solve our economic woes should stop us dead in our tracks. The only thing dumber was the idea put forth in an article questioning whether the government should mandate people to save money. Two important issues come head to head here resulting in a massive explosion, first, the Fed's artificially low-interest rates are obliterating savings at a time of growing inflation, and second is that when people retire without savings, it will fall upon the government to support them until they die. This does not bode well for the national deficit.

The Fed's Balance Sheet Has Exploded
This sort of thing has played out in many countries such as Argentina. And how did it work out for them? The governments which have implemented such policies have not only destroyed their currency but at the same time created more inflation and killed their economy. The end result being one of stagflation. The only reason inflation has not already knocked us to the floor is that much of the money has flowed into intangible assets such as stocks and bonds rather than into the tangible items we use each day. When this changes we will experience an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. 

To be perfectly clear, the problem we face is that poorly spending even trillions of dollars does not necessarily create a strong economy. The idea we can simply throw money at our problems is flawed. As small businesses close their doors forever, many of these jobs won't be coming back. This translates into far higher deficits going forward as many more Americans exit the workforce. Simply throwing money at a problem does not guarantee it will halt the formation of a self-feeding loop. 

While many investors talk about the link between low-interest rates driving the economy and markets ever higher this correlation is very weak. Japan is proof that low-interest rates do not guarantee a booming economy. The current low-rates combined with our massive government deficit is creating a false economy. It is also baking in a higher overall cost structure. Want to know where the real cost of things is going, just look at the replacement cost from recent storms and natural disasters.

The Federal Reserve and the government does not have a better or more accurate understanding of the needs and demand for goods and services or the productive capacity of the economy than Main Street. Instead, the Financial Government Complex has a huge incentive to overspend and transfer its inefficiencies to everyone else. People like Powell and Janet Yellen are insulated from the real world and the suffering of those who watch helplessly as their lives are upended and destroyed. We have entered uncharted waters and sadly, we have damn fools at the helm. 

Massive liquidity injections may temporarily mask a multitude of sins but is not a long term solution. It defies logic to think if the economy is really strong that the Fed, "must do more" and all the jawboning Powell does won't change the ugly reality we face. Even if Powell stands on the rooftop and shouts, "All is well!" we have little reason to trust him. He has turned investment rules upside down and like those before him, his actions have benefited those deemed too big to fail and the crony capitalist tied to the government. 


(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Sunday, March 21, 2021

Biden's Stumble Could Be An Omen Of A Bigger Fall

Looking Into Her Eyes, We See What?
It has not been a secret that much would be gained by those in the Kamala Harris camp if she were to replace Biden as President. Some people have even voiced the opinion this has been the game plan all along and Biden has simply been a pawn in the power game played by those pulling the strings. If such a scenario does unfold it will be most interesting to see how it unfolds. Will he fight being removed from office or resign? Would Biden be thrown under the bus or be treated as a sympathetic figure?

Over the past few weeks, we have seen the media putting a positive glow upon Harris and pointing out how she has been busy communicating with foreign heads of state. This may be in an effort to fortify her status. We should remember as a first-term Senator she could muster little support during the primaries and her campaign had been left for dead. In fact, during her Presidential run, Harris came under a great deal of media criticism for things in her past. Still, recent media actions indicate she may be destined to become Washington's next darling.

Biden Stumbles Before A Bigger Fall?
Media coverage of Biden's stumble while climbing onto Air Force One and his verbal blunders could simply be an omen of what is about to come. In this case, it may be a lead-up to what many people have predicted will happen in the future. It circles around the idea that Joe Biden was far past his prime and has an expiration date stamped somewhere on his body just out of sight.

It could be argued the media did little or nothing to expose this during the election. During that time Trump bashing occupied their focus. Biden's fragility was not nearly scrutinized nearly as much as Trump's health in 2016. At that time Trump was put under a microscope due to his age. Biden has a history of making verbal slip-ups and being a train wreck when he goes off-script but as he has gotten older claims of dementia have grown. 

No longer are Biden's missteps seen as mere gaffs but as a sign his mental competence is on the wane. Largely overlooked in the past have been Biden's slips referring to a Harris Biden Administration or President Harris. That being said, some in the media are now becoming more vocal over Biden not having a live news conference since the inauguration. Claims are even surfacing that he is hiding from the media and being tightly handled. Now that the left has full control of the White House it appears even some of those in the media that had so much to do with getting Biden elected are ready to push him off the stage. 

This bye-bye Biden, hello Harris theme has some rather strong ramifications for a country already strongly divided. With many Americans feeling Biden was thrust upon them against their will the idea that someone they are even less impressed with is unsettling. Most Americans don't really know much about Kamala Harris. Sadly, to some people, the fact she is the United States' first female vice president, the highest-ranking female official in U.S. history, or the first African American and first Asian American vice president is more important than her qualifications or views. 

Unfortunately, Harris's qualifications have little to do with what happens if and when Biden is put out to pasture. Still, kicking this issue down the road would be the best path forward and at least add credence to the idea voters were not duped into voting for a man that never should have been put in the oval office. In all honestly, regardless of how you feel about Joe Biden, the fact is the Presidency has not always been held by brilliant or honest individuals. In politics, such people are a rare breed.

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

China's Strength Should Be Evaluated Without Emotion

China's strength must be questioned by people without an agenda if we truly wish to understand the world. In the same way, the strength of the Soviet Union was overestimated before its fall in December of 1991 or the Japanese economy from 1986 to 1991, today people tend to exaggerate the strength of China. When Japan's massive bubble burst in early 1992, its real estate and stock market prices crashed causing the "lost decades" and the problems that still haunt them today. It seems Americans tend to supersize anything they can conjure up as a challenge to their supremacy. This is evident in the number of confidence crushing-articles being published with titles such as "The US Keeps Losing In Every Simulated War-Game Against China." 

  “in the night, imagining some fear, How easy is a bush supposed a bear!” ― William Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night's …

The world's economy has many moving parts, it exists in a fog which makes it difficult to evaluate what is unfolding. Intertwined with the economy is the financial system, which is vast and complex, and broken political systems. This makes it difficult to get a handle on how strong various parts of these systems are, to make matters worse, these systems are held hostage by propaganda machines operating on political agendas that are constantly changing. Much of this is operated by people lurking in the shadows. When all is said and done it would be wise not to believe much of what you read, hear and even see. A few years back, many people marked China's economy as surpassing that of America, but oddly enough, America is still rated as number one.

China Has Created A Record Amount Of New Loans

China has long been strategically positioning itself to fight what could be viewed as a war to displace America as the world's leading nation. Deeply rooted in its efforts are a number of individuals that stand to profit in the short-term.  For this reason, it would be fair to consider China as a far greater threat to America than Russia, however, China does have some major problems.

While China continues to tell the world that it is taking steps to deleverage its indebted financial system, in January, China created a staggering, record 3.58 trillion in new yuan loans. This surpasses the previous record of 3.340 trillion set just before the Chinese economy shut down due to covid-19. It could be argued that only gargantuan credit injections have prevented a total economic collapse in the world's second-largest economy and only ever greater credit injections are keeping China alive. This underlines the fact that size should never be interpreted as strength.

Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and central bank party secretary, has pointed out that bubbles in U.S. and European markets could burst because their rallies are heading in the opposite direction of their underlying economies. This could have been said to divert eyes from China's own massive financial bubble. By all indications, China's financial system stands at more than twice the size of that in the U.S. This could be why the CBIRC recently capped bank lending to the property market, slashed shadow banking activities, and unwound a wild expansion in peer-to-peer lending.

Money Continues To Be Injected Into Its System

Of course, it isn't  just China's new loans we should be looking at. The broadest Chinese credit aggregate, "Total Social Financing" which includes new loans as well as shadow debt creation and bond issuance has also exploded. Not long ago, a monstrous 5.170 trillion yuan or roughly $800 billion was injected into China's economy in just one month. 

Weeks ago, Economist, Daniel Lacalle noted in a video that much of the bullish talk about 2021 is linked to a recovery in China which is supported by very optimistic estimates of growth in services and exports. Lacalle then goes on to point out the details in the official February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) show a different picture. The data coming out, especially in services and exports, is inconsistent with the 6% GDP growth most analysts expect for 2021.

One of the takeaways from the recent annual National People’s Congress in Beijing is a conservative growth goal, with tighter fiscal-deficit targets and restrained monetary settings. That’s a big contrast with Washington, where President Joe Biden is already preparing another major fiscal package after just signing into law his giant $1.9 trillion relief package. The Chinese and all export geared nations are most likely giddy at the prospect of American consumers about to buy the products they manufacture and the boost it will bring to their economy.

Other issues cloud this complicated picture, these include such things as the strength of a country's political structure, institutions, money flows, the quality of its underlying assets. Also, how dependent its economy is upon other nations. These feed into the idea of resilience when put under pressure. Money flows have become massively important in our modern where huge amounts of wealth can flow across porous borders and flee a country in the blink of an eye. This is where corruption, a free press, and a strong legal system show how important they are in our lives. 

It is difficult to ignore that both China and Japan for years have been busy supporting zombie companies and not allowing them to fail in an effort to convince the world all is well. These countries are strongly linked and both very big players in the global economy, their unsustainable path forward, means if either falters, the other will be pressured. A case could be made that artificially low-interest rates in Europe and America are also allowing companies in those regions to remain standing long after they should cease to exist. China also is rapidly losing its edge as a low-cost producer. 

Many foreign companies that once relied on China’s cheap labor to produce their goods have moved their factories to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India, where operating costs are lower. While claims that higher U.S. productivity and rising operating costs in China will close the cost gap between manufacturing in China versus the United States the idea American firms will bring jobs back to America are far too optimistic. Even if major multinationals like Nike Inc., Adidas AG, Nikon Corp., and Microsoft Corp. have closed down their Chinese factories due to rising costs, America is not where these factories and jobs are going. Many are slated to move to countries linked to China by its OROB.

In an effort to keep this article from growing too lengthy, I will immediately address a few other key points. One is about how rapidly expanding credit in China is spilling over into the global market and driving up the price of assets and commodities. Another has to do with human rights and how for decades China has been pushing its people towards a more "homogeneous way of thinking."This includes totalitarian efforts to make its people march in line. The ruling Communist Party in China has built "re-education camps" in an attempt to bring these people into the “modern, civilized” world promote what the government calls “ethnic unity.” 

In simpler terms, the apparent goal is to force detainees to embrace the Chinese communist party and an effort to fully control the hearts and minds of its population. Whether what could be called "group think" strengthens or weakens a country is up for debate. Understanding the core nature of China is important to comprehend the lack of flexibility ingrained in their system. This comes in the ideology that directs its actions. China is still very much a communist country, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) controls everything. From indoctrinating children with Party slogans to requiring companies with more than 50 employees to have Party liaisons, the military and other areas of the country have similar programs.

China Is Building A Slew Of Cutting-Edge Weaponry

We should not forget, China is our rival. China's state-run economy is based on a business model that is geared to expand by crushing the competition. The One Road One Belt initiative is rapidly expanding its footprint in undeveloped nations and expanding the use of its currency while China builds a powerful military. China's unflexible path forward guarantees conflict and this is one of several reasons they represent more of a threat to America than Russia. All of the above gives credence to the idea that at some point China and America are headed towards serious conflict.

China has no intention of being locked into producing low-end manufacturing of basic goods but is determined to move into high-tech products. China's plan centers around both state-owned and private firms investing in and acquiring foreign companies to steal their technological innovations. Subsidizing those companies working within its system in a multitude of ways helps China achieve this goal. Countries that export goods at slightly below cost in exchange for manufacturing jobs are not stupid they are predatory and America and the rest of the world are their prey.


Footnote;  The articles below also explore modern China.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/09/chinas-rapidly-expanding-credit-affects.html  https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/11/china-has-plan-and-we-are-not-in-it.html     https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/01/chinas-cultural-group-think-is-worth.html

Sunday, March 14, 2021

The Problem With Helicopter Money Is That It Is Inefficient

The Money Supply Has Exploded

The term helicopter money refers to unconventional methods used to get money into the hands of people that will rapidly put it to use. Whether to buy products or pay bills it is often seen as a way to kick start a stalled economy in need of a boost. This is seen as an alternative to quantitative easing and is considered by some a faster way to add liquidity into the economy. It could be argued that over the years such policies have proven to be inefficient and poorly targeted. While helicopter money may accomplish a certain goal such as supporting a market, it is poorly targeted and seldom addresses the root problems in a financial system or economy. 

The failure of central banks across the world to use their power to push governments to undertake reforms is coming home to haunt us. Rather than assuming the role of enforcer and protector of our fiat currency system central banks across the world have joined with governments in what I call the "Financial-Political Complex." This is comprised of the organizations, comprised of authorities, politicians, and bureaucrats that want increased power and influence. These people benefit a great deal by unleashing huge sums of fiat currency upon the masses and ignoring the long-term ramifications of their actions upon the financial system. It should not bring comfort to the average man that these unholy forces have joined together in such a union.

A huge problem with simply sending out big checks to a population with little experience handling large sums of money is that they don't know how to handle it. While some big income earners and politicians in Washington may not think so, for a family of three with an annual income of $30,000 two checks from the government totaling $6,000 is an incredibly big deal. It is equal to 20% of their income and in truth, the windfall most likely doesn't end there. Often other goodies are thrown their way such as rental assistance and a slew of other programs aimed at paying their bills.

An important factor we should consider is that such programs weaken in the minds of these people the relationship between the value of currency and reality. This translates into much of this money being poorly spent and flowing into areas where it does little to move the American economy forward. An example of this is when the money is not used towards old bills, mortgage payments, or rent, but used to buy flat-screen televisions imported from China. In such a situation the unpaid debts tend to fester and become a problem for the economy going forward. Buying junk produced in China generally does little good when it comes to creating jobs in America.                                    

What consumers buy matters a great deal. When looking at the policies flowing out of Washington it is clear many politicians seem to have no idea that all consumer spending and purchases are not created equal. Senator Rand Paul has good reason to be bouncing off the wall with criticism of the 1.9 trillion dollar relief bill just passed. Sadly, not enough politicians and voters are anywhere near as outraged. This may have to do with the fact this is such a huge amount of money that few people can get their head around it. In fact, most Americans are oblivious to the fact less than 25% of the 1.9 trillion dollars in this bill is being given to the people in the way of direct checks but again the majority of it is pork and a gift to special interest.

Helicopter Money Not Focused On Cause

The important issue when it comes to the latest rounds of stimulus, relief, and Fed easing is they fail to address the underlying cause of our economic problems. Rather than trying to correct the imbalances in our system, they are an attempt to paper over them. This means under the surface things are getting much, much worse. The massive overspending in the just passed bill is why Republicans in Congress did not support the bill. Senator Paul  said, "There's $10 million to study Native American languages, there's $750 million to build Native American housing, there is $300 billion in there to bail out New York, California, and Illinois." Paul believes those blue states spent money recklessly and in essence, are being rewarded for overspending in the American Rescue Plan.  Wasting our resources is not the way to get the economy back on track. 


 
The chart below shows how over the years each infusion of money into the economy has been greeted with diminishing returns. In the past, other countries embarking on similar policies have had similar results. With this in mind, it is difficult to make a case such spending spurs real economic growth. 

QE Followed By More QE Has Failed To Produce The Desired Growth

It seems those in power see the way to a stronger economy will come from banks loaning more and for us to borrow more and spend more. However, at some point, we reach a place where too much money or currency makes it a worthless commodity and inflation takes root. Many investors are beginning to worry that time is rapidly approaching. When it does arrive it will bring about a financial crisis, that is when those saying that we only need to print more money to move forward will find they are on the wrong side of history.

Thursday, March 11, 2021

China's C919 Airplane, Boeing's New Rival Wins Contract

On March 1, CGTN reported that Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) had won its first commercial contract. China Eastern Airlines, one of China's largest airlines headquartered in Shanghai, signed a contract to buy five C919 jetliners. The first plane is expected to be delivered later this year. Once delivered, the brand new planes are slated to be put into operation in domestic flight routes connecting Shanghai and several other major cities including Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xiamen, Wuhan, and Qingdao. 

The subject of the C919 and its development has been a topic that has appeared from time to time on this site. Call it a warning if you like about China's intentions to develop both a plane and an airline industry capable of taking on Boeing and Airbus. As often happens in life, time seems to pass in the blink of an eye and what originally appeared as an event years away arrives much faster than expected. While most of the world ignored its progress, China has rapidly pushed its aviation sector forward. This means going forward, Airbus won't be the only rival Boeing has to contend with.  

Now Airborne China's C919 Will Be A Major Player
At the time of its first flight, in May of 2017, Bloomberg reported that aviation analysts argued China's claims of a fully homemade aircraft were questionable pointing out that much of the technology inside the C919 aircraft came from the U.S. and other countries. While Bloomberg and many other sources tried to downplay the event by pointing out the C919 contained a German landing gear, Franco-American engines, and Austrian-made interiors, China's intentions are clear.
 
The sales of jetliners are very important because they play into the bigger picture of world trade and trade imbalances and China has been a massive battleground for Boeing and Airbus because of the sheer size of its market. China's air travel market is expected to surpass the United States by 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association. Translate that into orders for planes and you’re looking at something on the order of 2,800 new planes with a book value of $329 billion. Boeing has projected it could sell China 6,330 planes worth $950 billion during the next 20 years. Nearly three-quarters of the planes for its civilian airlines will be single-aisle with about 700 widebodies.

The C919, being built by Chinese state-owned aviation manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC), should send fear into the hearts of Americans. COMAC has spent 11 years and $6.5 billion developing the C919. This is China's answer to the Boeing 737 and Airbus 320. The C919 has a flight range of up to 3,451 miles (5,555 kilometers), which means it can fly non-stop from Shanghai to Jakarta or from Paris to Montreal and it can fit 158 to 168 seats. This hits right at the heart of its competitors, different models of Boeing 737 can seat 85 to 215 passengers; while an A320 can accommodate 100 to 240 people.

Expect China To Rapidly Ramp Up Production
Politics plays a big role in industry and the Chinese government which has long aspired to play the "plane game" has no qualms admitting its big role in developing the country’s aviation industry. Miao Wei, vice-minister of industry and information technology, has been quoted saying the government encourages the development of export-oriented aviation products. Articles that have appeared on this site over the years have reported on how China was ramping up its fledgling aviation industry and how when it hits its stride we can expect cutthroat competition. These articles warned that as Chinese planes take flight over the next decade America and Boeing may be saying say goodbye to a big chunk of its exports in this field.

An article in USA Today in the fall of 2009 focused on the planned C919. At the time it was called the "big plane" project and designed to directly challenge U.S. plane-making giant Boeing and European rival Airbus. The article reported the first flight wasn't scheduled until 2014, and the jet wouldn't be available commercially until 2016. But even back then the Chinese manufacturer claimed the twin-engine, narrow-body design of the C919 is superior to its competition the Boeing 737, the best-selling jetliner in the world, and its competitor, the Airbus A320. COMAC had yet to release the price tag of the jet, but a report by China National Radio predicted that it would likely be sold for around $43 million. This is much cheaper than a Boeing 737 or an Airbus 320 which each cost around $80 million $100 million respectively.

At the end of 2018, the third C919 completed its maiden flight at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport. Footage of the flight released by Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television Station. COMAC said the plane completed 21 test points during the flight but did not reveal more details of the maiden flight, such as the plane's altitude or speed but in May of 2018, the first C919 during its maiden flight reached 10,000 feet with a maximum speed of 170 knots or 196 miles per hour. The first two C919s that took to the skies the year before have been undergoing flight tests in order to obtain flying certification. Three other C919s were being assembled and expected to complete their first flights in the following year.

The Chief Designer of the ARJ21, Wu Guanghui, says that COMAC has turned to new, lightweight carbon composites in place of steel for the plane's construction to gain the 12% to 15% in fuel efficiency. Boeing, which pioneered composite design had difficulty in bringing its first composite plane, the 787 Dreamliner, to market, however, once a company pioneers the way, those following in its footsteps have an easier path. Boeing and Airbus have delayed plans to build more fuel-efficient, narrow-body planes to replace the 737 and A320 because it cost billions to create a new plane and adding composites won't contribute enough fuel-efficiency savings to justify the move. Price isn't the sole factor for airlines in buying a plane, overall quality, reliability, maintenance, and readily available replacement parts, as well as the pilot and mechanic training that manufacturers provide, are also important.

Building commercial aircraft has never been a consistently profitable business, manufacturers risk several billions of dollars every time they try to develop a new type of aircraft. The Communist government, however, is playing by a different set of economic rules and using the C919 as a springboard to develop a nationwide aviation industry involving more than 200 companies, 36 universities, and hundreds of thousands of personnel. Some free-trade optimists claim China's airline industry has become a private-sector industry and ignore the government's influence saying, just because the C919 will be made in China doesn't mean all the Chinese carriers will stop buying 737s and A320s to buy only C919s. They also claim it will be decades before the Chinese will be able to produce anything close to the numbers of planes that the Chinese market will demand.

This is not China's first jet, at the end of 2015, COMAC delivered its first new "Advanced Regional Jet for the 21st Century," dubbed ARJ21. The buyer, Chengdu Airlines contracted to buy 30 of these new planes and across China, more than 300 orders from various airlines and airplane-leasing firms have been placed. The ARJ21 is tailor-made for the Chinese regional market, it is capable of carrying as many as 90 passengers on trips as far as 1,300 miles allowing it to make direct flights to just about any point in the country. The plane is built with about 50% U.S.supplied parts, including avionics from the well-respected Rockwell Collins and engines from General Electric. The ARJ21 is the result of a trade delegation led by President Obama back in 2009. This does not impact Boeing which doesn't play in the 90 passengers and below market but it directly competes with models from Brazil’s Embraer and Canada’s Bombardier.

So where is this going? China is investing big in this vision with its State media touting the "advanced technologies" that will be used throughout the plane, from new avionics to the plane's frame partially made of light composite materials. COMAC is also developing a wide-body plane, the C929, in cooperation with Russia's United Aircraft Corp. Another company, Avic, is currently working on China’s first helicopter factory. The bottom-line is that it would be incredibly naive to underestimate China's resolve in rapidly becoming a player in a field that will move it up the manufacturing food chain. Expect competition in this field to rapidly intensify as new Russian and Brazilian jets also hit the market.

With China's experience of building cities from scratch and government-backed financing, why build just one factory when you can build twenty? This means we should not expect China's aviation industry to grow organically but to be engineered by an aggressive government with a mission. All this is part of a plan to take China a huge step closer to its trillion-dollar aviation dream of replacing all 6,000 to 6,800 of its western aircraft with its own planes. This translates into a cost of around $1 trillion dollars, with most of the replacements expected to be this single-aisle made-in-China jet.

All in all, this makes China's C919 a big deal. China should be considered an adversary and serious rival that should not be underestimated. Over the years China has proven very skilled at industrial espionage and reverse engineering. This means the "duopoly" in the commercial airline market worth trillions of U.S. dollars which has been enjoyed by Boeing and France-based Airbus is about to end. Whether China's C919 is going to hurt Boeing any more than Boeing has hurt itself over the last several years has yet to be seen, or shall we say, is still up in the air.

 

  Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Expect Government Crackdowns In A "Global Depression"

For those professing a preference for one type of government over another, an ugly reality is they all cut from the same cloth. Whether we are talking about Democracy, Communism, Socialism, or Fascism the strong link they share is one of dominance and a desire to control. While seen as vastly different systems with distinct goals, each is rooted in the promise people should sacrifice as needed for "the greater good." The main flaw in a democracy is that it allows a simple majority to force their desires upon others. This is why our forefathers set checks and balances in the Constitution, however, even these do not guarantee freedom will remain. 

Today, the burden of risk and the amount of "skin in the game" is not equally shared by all of society. Over time our financial system and institutions have been corrupted by crony capitalism and a political system that panders to the masses by exchanging favors for baubles. It could be argued that those in power don't have to take away our freedom by force if we are willing to surrender it or trade it for a few paid weeks off work. Nor do they have to be fair in how they go about this if they simply get a majority of the populace to go along with their plan.



The suspicion governments are self-serving creatures is apparent in the old school British imperial definition of “commerce” which used free trade as a cover for the military dominance of weak nations. Those put in a position of being exploited often saw this as simply a ruse promoted by those wishing to abuse them. In short, opening borders and turning off protectionism simply makes it easier to rob countries of their wealth. America, a wayward child of England, has been accused of following this same path. 

Economic Hardship Takes Many Forms
In my last article titled, "The first Global Inflationary Depression Is Possible" a case was made that the world was headed towards an economic crisis due to several factors. The problem is that such a scenario encompasses all aspects of life, from food and energy, to supply chains, geopolitics, and possibly even war. This article is an effort to offer up some ideas on how governments might respond to such an event based on current trends and some of the events that have occurred during the covid-19 pandemic. If we accept the idea that governments are self-serving and that a huge majority of the people suffer during an economic depression, we should expect frictions to develop as the populace seeks solutions to ease their pain. 

Sadly, governments across the world have overreached and crushed the rights of individuals during the pandemic. People have been denied the ability to travel, locked in their homes, followed by drones, and even been jailed. This may have been just a taste of what we might expect if governments are put under pressure to perform. Many people have pointed to the fact that in the past "war has been the go-to answer" often used to take our eyes off of problems. Hopefully, that will not be the case, however, many of the other options possible in the age of almost total surveillance do not seem much better. 

It is wise to remember that when all is said and done, those in power will not be kind to us but they will rapidly throw us under the bus without a thought. Silencing dissidents or those that protest or disagree by limiting free speech is only a start. Lock-downs and curfews take on a whole new meaning when harshly enforced. They can include things like house arrest, cutting power, links to the internet and communication, and even water to areas where unrest gets out of hand. You can expect governments to remove anything that gives us the power to control our fate.

Robots Could Be Used For Crowd Control

The topic of our future and culture always circles back to and is directly linked to the issue of jobs vanishing as automation and an army of robots march into our workplace. This can result in a future that takes on a very grim dystopian appearance. The fear of being replaced by a robot or seeing your job being outsourced or eliminated is on the rise. Do not be surprised if in the end those displaced from the job market are only given enough to ensure they remain docile and behave. If and when this becomes an issue conflict and violence will arise.

While some people credit Rahm Emanuel with the saying, Winston Churchill was the first to say, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” He said it in the mid-1940s as we were approaching the end of World War II, and history indicates those in government have taken heed. The one thing we can count on is that when things crumble, the old, "we should have done more" or the "it would have been far worse" lines always flow forth from those in charge. Under this logic, we should be prepared to be subjected to massive abuse by those with strong agendas.  

Possibly, one of the most dire threats we face flows from the combination of big tech and those in pursuit of the highly touted one-world agenda. This brings together a slew of organizations, governments, companies, wealthy, individuals, and bankers with the goal of expanding their power. The gathering in Davos of the World Economic Forum is not for our benefit but more for plutocrats like Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon's Jeff Bezos that desire to "break the world" with their ruthless agendas to bring more political power into their hands. Recently a great deal of attention has been given to some of the ideas and vision the WEF has floated. One of the most powerful became visible when WEF public relations released a video entitled: “8 Predictions for the World in 2030. Its 2030 agenda offers a telling glimpse into what the technocratic elite has in store for the rest of us. It promotes the idea that  by 2030 "You will own nothing. And you'll be happy. 

How do you begin to fight or turn back a force that has even incorporated and leveraged the ever-present smartphone as an ultra-powerful surveillance device? By developing programs to organize phone data so that it provides real-time intelligence on every citizen, and using it to guide and influence our actions the power of the state has been deeply enhanced. The digital age has made it far easier for government to seize our computers and records to shape a case against anyone by massaging the data as they see fit. The reason we hear so little criticism of these actions from our government may be that we are next in line to have our freedom culled. Governments are not the friend of the average man. Orwell wrote about how governments could take on a life of their own and criticized totalitarianism throughout his writings.

Totalitarianism, the most extreme and complete form of authoritarianism is a political concept that defines a mode of government, which prohibits opposition parties, restricts individual opposition to the state and its claims, and exercises an extremely high degree of control over public and private life. Political power in totalitarian states is generally pushed by those on the far left or right with strong agendas and an all-encompassing propaganda campaign, which is disseminated through mass media. Signs of its growth are often marked by political repression, growing control over the economy, restriction of speech, and mass surveillance.

Of course, a huge step in individuals losing control over their lives would be the adoption of a single world currency. Those in charge of our financial machinery have indicated to the public their desire for more power. This means creating a truly global centralized economic system and a highly controlled world currency framework dominated by a select cult of banking oligarchs. This would, in effect makes the rest of the human race their slaves. The banking elites are positioning themselves to avoid blame for a disaster in which all fiat currencies fall in value by selling us on an elaborate recovery con-game which includes converting to a new worldwide currency. Remember, this is conceived and perpetuated by those with the most to gain. 

ecocover
Magazine Cover From 1988

For years the IMF has been discussing replacing the dollar with the SDR as the world reserve currency. It would require governments to borrow from the world central banking authority, rather than printing currency to finance their infrastructure programs. With governments floating the idea of going cashless and to digital currencies, this would give them even greater control over our lives. To be clear, the elites are positioned and merely waiting for a geopolitical disaster or catastrophe so overwhelming that when the time arrives they can portray themselves as our saviors by carrying out this plan. 

This is all part of the New World Order and globalization idea pushed by many of the rich elite and world leaders. It contends that larger, more cooperative governments under one financial unit will benefit us all. The fact is Americans have a great deal to lose if the dollar is dethroned and declines in value. Those who will be crucified are the middle-class Americans whose wealth is locked into or are holding long-term USD bonds thinking they are a safe investment.  To Americans, the fate of dollar-dominated assets and their value when the dust finally settles should be a huge concern but most Americans fail to grasp the implications. 

The transition to a world currency would take a far greater toll on paper assets than tangible goods. While recognizing the flaws of the dollar and our current system I have come to believe the other fiat currencies such as the euro and yen hold even less merit. This includes cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. Regardless, in the end, we should expect to be told and not given an option as to what is coming. If events unfold in the way those promoting a one-world currency hope, they will be able to portray cleaning up a financial mess as a blessing. The truth is, they will benefit greatly from putting a dagger in the heart of freedom. This is not written to frighten or as a prediction of doom but to dampen any illusions those at the top value those below them.

 

Footnote: Below are several links to previous articles related to topics mentioned in this post. 

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/11/world-currency-included-in-endgame-reset.html.  https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/12/liberals-and-conservatives-both-buy.html https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/01/power-of-orwellian-state-almost.html

 (Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)