Saturday, April 8, 2017

Show Me The Money! I Want Proof Not More Promises / By: Bruce Wilds

As I flip through positive story after story and positive article after article it seems the big issue is whether we actually believe things are really getting better. An example is a Project Syndicate piece that starts out. "After nine dreary years of downgrading their GDP forecasts, macroeconomic policymakers around the world are shaking their heads in disbelief: Despite a populist-propelled wave of political tumult, global growth is actually set to outperform expectations in 2017." It continues and goes on to announce, if I may paraphrase, "green shoots" have appeared and better times are just around the corner unless the bad people kill them off.

The people referred to in the Project Syndicate article that could derail economic growth are of course the populist and those who are unenthusiastic about globalism. Sadly, we have been hearing for years the promise the global economy is about to turn the corner. While such enthusiasm and faith are supposed to be uplifting if the reader does not feel it in their bones this just begins to come across as more hope being dished out as today's special. During the last eight years, we have watched hope change and die many times so please forgive those of us who hold back their excitement until we see tangible proof that things are really getting better.

We Have Grown Tired Of Promises, Show Us The Money!
Show me the money! Now here is a phrase that gets our attention. Years ago it was etched in our minds when used in the 1996 hit movie, Jerry Maguire. Whether it is the promise of better government or that a company like Tesla that lives on the government tit and burning through cash can really make money, I grow weary and more dubious that positive change is just around the corner.

Many of the experts, pundits, and academic know-it-alls continue to spew out how it is the fault of the populist and other backward thinkers with little faith. The same article referenced earlier goes on to state, "The threat to globalism seems to have waned in Europe, with populist candidates having lost elections in Austria, the Netherlands, and now Germany. But a populist turn in upcoming elections in either France or Italy could still tear apart the European Union, causing massive collateral damage to the rest of the world." Simply put, it is the fault of the people and not the unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail banks that have left so many of us trapped in our current plight.

It could be argued the Fed and those in Washington have been both complicit and superbly entrepreneurial when it comes to the Ponzi schemes or pseudo-economics hocus-pocus that has allowed the current situation to simply roll along. The misdirected actions of Central Banks and governments across the word since 2008 have not been driven by the people but rather by those within the Government Financial Complex. Years ago President Eisenhower warned the American people about the Industrial Military complex, but nobody warned us of an even more evil alliance that exists today, that of the "Financial-Political Complex."

We desperately need changes to our economy that will foster an environment of growth but the results have not been forthcoming. It is far easier to make a promise than keep it. We see this occurring at the local level as well as in Washington, where I live several times a year announcements are made of glorious projects and in their unveiling, the swaggering presenters even go as far as giving details and timetables for completion. It is only when years or even decades later when we stumble upon an old article that we are reminded of all the hoopla that resulted in nothing. A line from an old Jerry Seinfeld  episode states, "it is easier to make a reservation than to keep it."

Thanks to globalism at times it has appeared America's biggest export has been its jobs.Year after year America imports around five hundred billion dollars more from other countries than they export.  This means we have a giant trade deficit, when we add this to our enormous government deficit it is easy to see that we are living far beyond our means. A good example of a recent promise in "limbo" and unfulfilled is the rapid repeal and replacement of Obamacare with something much better. Sadly, my friends your chances of survival most likely will be greatly improved if you don't hold your breath until the promises of better times arrive. The time for more proof and fewer promises is long past due.

Footnote; The Fed must at some point begin to ponder a real exit strategy and end the massive and corrosive stimulus that the economy has come to expect. The article below asks you to tell me again how things are getting better!


  1. The real question is what should an average retail investor do in the event of the exit strategy

  2. From 2014/10/28 to 2017/04/08, the SP500 index went from 1985 to 2355. Anyone who went cash missed out big time, and worse if they went short.

    1. When it comes to the current market another famous movie line comes to mind and that is, DO YOU FEEL LUCKY?
      We should remember the important part of this game is what you have left after it ends.