Friday, April 12, 2019

Waking Up To A World Done Saved!

Rejoice, Everything Is Coming Up Roses!
This morning I woke up to a "World Done Saved!" This translates into smooth sailing ahead. Markets were up, deals had been made, and problems solved! In such a situation only the most cynical among us would have reason to doubt all is well. I just read it, so it must be true! Matter of fact, I would not be surprised April 12th becomes a day that will be herald as a turning point for all of eternity. Here are just a few of the stories adding substance to my claim. Jumping off the page were the following reasons to rejoice and no reason for concern.

The terrible, possibly one of the worse people to ever have lived, according to America's security apparatus, Julian Assange has been taken into custody. Assange the head and founder of Wikileaks is responsible for leaking government secrets. He is guilty of informing the world that America's government has purposely been lying to its citizens. Halting such leaks is key to the government being able to continue acting for "the greater good."

A company just announced it has successfully tested an integral component of its Synergetic Air-Breathing Rocket Engine (SABRE). This could clear the path for commercial hypersonic flight in the next decade, read the press release. Slap this baby on the wings of an airliner and we could travel at Mach 5 or even faster. This would allow us to travel from New York to London in just one hour. Adding to this good news, Reaction Engines responsible for this breakthrough is located in the Denver area. Being centrally located everyone can get to it, whereas, if it was located on one of the coasts it would be more difficult for buyers of their product to reach them.

Also, overnight, a sharp rebound in Chinese trade data coupled with a surge in Chinese credit bolstered risk assets across the board. This underpinned "signs of resilience" in the global economy. and acted as a catalyst that caused the S&P futures to rally back above 2,900, their highest level since September 2018. This rebound in March exports is considered proof of its economic recovery. The PBOC also reported new yuan loans of 1.69 trillion, far above 1.25 trillion estimate, while total aggregate financing in March soared higher 2.86t yuan. This smashed the 1.85t yuan estimate, and was more than four times the February 703BN yuan increase. This translates into proof that China once again is doing everything in its power to flood the economy with new credit reversing concerns from the sharp February TSF drop. 

Saving the best for last, the Asian Times reports the European Union and China managed to come up with an important joint statement. It outlined agreement on three quite sensitive fronts and paves the way, in theory, that a complex, wide-ranging EU-China investment deal may be signed “by the end of next year. The statement was signed by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and head of the European Council, Donald Tusk. It is already being described as "the real deal" and a departure from antics such as the endless Brexit soap opera.

In the article the writer notes, the joint statement reads in fact like a rose garden: “The high level of ambition will be reflected in substantially improved market access [and] the elimination of discriminatory requirements and practices affecting foreign investors.” Better yet, there were no accusations of “unfair” trade hurled at Beijing. It appears that Brussels and Beijing seem to be finally engaging in building some sort of synergy between the One Belt One Road Initiative and something only Eurocrats know actually exists but is outlined in the EU Connecting Europe and Asia project report.

The only real negative to all this great news is that the devil is in the details. This is where you find nothing is really different and in many cases, close inspection reveals that the motivation behind the headlines indicates trouble ahead. As for the examples above, should we celebrate the deep state's victory over Wikileaks an international non-profit organization that publishes secret information, news leaks, and classified media provided by anonymous sources? Do we really think the world will change overnight because jets travel faster? Is this unfinished deal with a deteriorating Europe and a desperate China really going to benefit anyone but the Chinese? It may be best not to ask too many questions or your enthusiasm may rapidly wane. 

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