Advancing Time: Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into ...

Advancing Time: Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into ...: The war in Ukraine has expanded into Russia. This expansion highlights an unlimited amount of propaganda is being dumped upon us. Most of th...

Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into Russia"

The war in Ukraine has expanded into Russia. This expansion highlights an unlimited amount of propaganda is being dumped upon us. Most of the media, with or without an agenda, have presented us with a rather one-sided view of what is occurring on the ground. Some claim Putin is on his last leg and about to crumble, others take the stand a desperate Ukraine's venture into Kursk is a suicide mission. Anyway you look at the situation "over there," most people would argue peace would be a better option.

 

From the get-go, I have taken the stand and warned pushing Putin into such a war was a bad idea in that a war in his backyard gave Russia a huge home-field advantage. To make matters worse, this war was and is totally unnecessary. As this has unfolded, I feel, the views of Colonel Douglas Macgregor probably give us a good picture of what is occurring on the ground. His take on, the mismatch of forces, the motivation, and the strategy seem to closely match reality.

In this latest update from the Kursk battlefield, Colonel Macgregor offered a detailed analysis of Russia's overwhelming counterattacks and Ukraine's staggering losses. As the 'Kursk Curse' unfolds as Russian forces are leveraging superior artillery and air power to dismantle Ukraine's offensive strategies. From the failed advances in Komarovka to the destruction of Ukrainian armored divisions, the battlefield remains a pivotal front in the ongoing conflict. It appears that Russia's elite units, like the Akhmat group, continue to sabotage and counter Ukraine's deep penetration raids. 

This is leading to record-breaking casualties. Macgregor explains the brutal reality and devastating impact of Russia’s precision strikes and how the incursion into Kursk may enraged and galvanized the Russian people behind Putin. Rather than pressuring Putin to end the madness, Macgregor holds the view that more than a few Russians think Russia has not been aggressive enough and should ramp up its efforts to crush Ukraine. 

Bubbling up through the forces that bring us to war is the stupid and shameful myth that it is good for the economy. While war does line the pockets of a few industrialists and businessmen the cost is great and outweighs the benefits. Warfare often fails to be either easy, swift, or true. For proof, we need only look at the millions of people displaced and forced to flee war-torn areas, these refugees, and the countries they flee to, often pay the price for the billions of dollars of military hardware produced at a profit and pumped into countries across the world. 

 

Those of you who have accepted, hook, line, and sinker, the view Putin is a thug and a bully should remember beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Please consider that Putin resurrected the crumbling Russian empire into a nation-state with coherence and purpose. He is credited with halting the theft of his country’s wealth by the plutocracy and restoring Russia's military strength. Putin's biggest sin may have been that with blunt rhetoric he refused to accept for Russia a subservient role in an American-run world led by foreign politicians and business leaders.

 

It does not stand as a monument of our virtue that many Western leaders have stirred the pot of war and added to world strife. Many of the same so-called "warmongers" are hellbent on turning Ukraine into a major war whether the countries involved want it or not. History shows what has become known as "proxy wars" create profits for companies manufacturing weapons. The cost, of course, is then pawned off on taxpayers and a public preoccupied with personal concerns. In this case, we should be concerned that these fools are playing with fire. This has little to do with Russia taking over the world or Ukraine's national sovereignty. It is about money, energy, and power.

Somewhere in the minds of rational people should reside the idea that warfare has proven to be a pathetic option to bring about positive change, it may change things, but to what degree and for how long. The loss of life of an individual is often insignificant except to their loved ones. One of the harsh realities of modern war is that it has become a less personal way to die.  Beyond that ugly reality is the fact war carries with it many hidden costs. At this point, we can only pray that the warmongers among us do not turn this into World War III. 

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Product...

Advancing Time: A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Product...: America made a major mistake pushing higher wages instead of pushing productivity. This started years ago as a solution to growing inequali...

A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Productivity

America made a major mistake pushing higher wages instead of pushing productivity. This started years ago as a solution to growing inequality. Increased productivity tends to lower the price of goods and inflation. It could be argued that higher wages are a chief contributor in causing America to become less competitive in the global market, productivity matters. 

The trade deficit has exploded and much of the reason is based on other countries being able to produce goods at far lower cost. High wages have only widened the advantage low-income countries have over America in producing less expensive goods. Of course, it is not the only factor, a slew of regulations and things such as high healthcare costs also feed into this. 

Over the last several decades this has resulted in a hollowing out of America's middle-class as companies shifted production overseas. Years ago Trump cut the tax on large companies in an effort to bring jobs back to America. A big reason this was not as successful as we hoped is that over-regulation and healthcare costs in America trump an advantage the tax cut provided.

America's trade deficit has been widening, again. The U.S. international trade deficit widened 0.8% in May to $75.1 billion. This is the largest deficit since October 2022. The numbers from the last several years highlight that for all the commotion it created, the trade war with China has failed to bring down the trade deficit.

As for productivity, for years businesses shouted they were seeing huge gains in productivity but the truth is that productivity can be difficult to measure. Sagging productivity is tied directly to the idea we may be looking at stagflation. Today supply chain disruptions and other problems continue to take a bite out of productivity, 

New systems touted as gains, can carry with them a lot of negatives. With the onslaught of computers and word processing the garbage in garbage out pipeline has exploded. This has resulted in a simple search for information dropping the person searching into a loop that circles back upon itself and rendering little in the way of helpful information. 

An example of more is not always better is evident in the way government is constantly growing. It is not uncommon for laws and bills flowing from Washington to run thousands of pages in length. Ironically, while the old way of typing and copying was inefficient compared to modern methods, it did limit the number of pages a person could create. 

Truth be told, many of us have wasted a full day or more on a machine that is malfunctioning or refuses to do our bidding. The idea we save time by not fixing something discounts the cost and waste created when we are forced to throw away an item that still or should have a great deal of useful value. Sometimes I have to wonder whether people will ever look up from their cell phones long enough to realize a lot of things are not working and complicated is not always better.

Another issue acting as a double-edged sword on productivity is the "Amazon business model." The inefficiency of shipping products directly to consumers is a subject raised here on AdvancingTime in a recent post. This inefficiency was hammered home on December 26th and 27th on NBC news. While the news did not blame Amazon directly it attacked the wasteful process of selling online. 

The NBC piece looked strongly at how new products purchased online were often returned and at the cost to a business for taking these items back. It reported it cost $33 to take back an item sold for $50 and how this is crushing profit margins. NBC went on to detail how many of these items end up in landfills and were never used. Waste may add to America's GDP but should be considered a huge negative to the American economy.

As a side note, it should be mentioned that many of these items ending up in landfills unused were manufactured in China. How ironic, the fact we buy so much from China rather than making more goods at home is one of the reasons for the current supply chain debacle. There is a slang expression we sometimes hear people say, "You can't make this shit up." This idiom is used to describe a situation, event, or action that is or seems especially bizarre, surreal, or hard to believe.

To put this in context, Americans send their wealth overseas to buy the goods our system is designed to throw away. It is a sad situation that we live in a world where our political leaders cheer waste since it adds to the GDP. Simply put, raising wages without a corresponding rise in productivity hurts more than it helps.

 

Footnote; Information from the following articles fed into this post.

1.  https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/list-of-supply-chain-shortages-f9adc4e41967
2.  https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/12/amazon-predatory-monster-unleashed-upon.html
3. https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-dreadful-c-word-conserve.html
   

  

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Shades Of 1987 Real Estate Market May Surface In 2030

Advancing Time: Shades Of 1987 Real Estate Market May Surface In 2030: When it comes to the real estate market, shades of 1987 could resurface around 2030. If the long end of the interest rate yield curve remai...

Shades Of 1987 Real Estate Market May Surface In 2030

When it comes to the real estate market, shades of 1987 could resurface around 2030. If the long end of the interest rate yield curve remains elevated or moves higher this is the big danger we face. High rates combined with a market where offices and retail space appear to be overbuilt may halt this type of new construction for the next few years. This has the potential to turn a glut into a shortage, especially if a lot of the current stock is demolished.

When new construction slows faster than demand falls the relationship between supply and demand hammers its way home. Those of us who had to lease space in the mid-80s ran smack dab into a wall of high prices and a lack of availability. For many small businesses finding space to lease in 1987 was very difficult. As you might expect, this sent the price of buildings soaring.

In some areas, the shortage of space for lease got to the point where it generated a bidding war. This was a direct result of high interest rates and other actions taken in 1979 and 1980 to coral inflation. Making it more difficult to build means that after a few years, all excess supply vanishes from the market.  

It is also possible that America may be in the process of even moving residential rates off of long-term rates and pushing to more flexible rates. Such a change would also pose long-term ramifications. Central banks have far more ability to affect near-term rates than those several years away. The rates charged on longer loans are more at the mercy of investors and their perception of future inflation.

This is particularly true if the Fed moves away from purchasing mortgage-backed securities. In short, new construction suffers during times of high interest rates. This tends to create supply shortages over time which at some point fuels an additional boom in new supply. A key question is where we are  in this cycle. Remember the cycle is not the same in all countries, in this case, I'm focusing on here in America. 

Another factor is the cost of future construction and the idea prices will not fall and will most likely rise. DIY with Dave, takes the stand that, lumber prices have been relatively low and stable for the past few years but things are changing. In a video, he makes the case that the stage is now set for huge lumber price increases if use rapidly picks up. He explains how mill closures are impacting the capacity of the lumber market and how that could lead to huge price spikes in the future. 

Of course, lumber is not the only cost factoring into new construction cost. Government regulations, utility hookups, labor, insurance, and more all feed into this. It is difficult to make a case that any of these are about to fall. While buildings are notoriously expensive to maintain, building them from scratch continues to look more so.

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Many New "Unaffordable Apartments" Coming Online

Advancing Time: Many New "Unaffordable Apartments" Coming Online: Americans are not only seeing, but constantly being reminded a slew of new apartments are about to come online. Most people hope this will ...

Many New "Unaffordable Apartments" Coming Online

Americans are not only seeing, but constantly being reminded a slew of new apartments are about to come online. Most people hope this will help alleviate the country's housing problem. What they do not tell you is that most people can't afford them. My frustration with America's housing policy boiled over when I read a piece about how roughly 80% of new apartment construction was for the high-end luxury market. This will do little to address the issue of housing affordability or homelessness. 

 

Homelessness has been rising since 2017. At the end of last year, NPR reported that homelessness in America spiked in 2023, reaching a record high. A report, released by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, found more than 650,000 people were living in shelters, outside in tents, or in cars. This is an increase of 12% from the year before and is happening even while unemployment is very low. "We simply don't have enough homes that people can afford," says Jeff Olivet, executive director of the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness.

 

When it comes to the category of affordable housing, not a whole lot of help is on the way. All this highlights the fact the government tends to muck up everything it touches. The housing issue is something that impacts all of us. People have an interesting relationship with their homes, often it is more than just a place to sleep. Housing is a complex issue and its future is not set in stone. How we manage housing greatly impacts society.

 

In America, the government, coupled with a slew of builder and Realtor associations controls the housing narrative. They convey to us when things are in a buying frenzy, just who is buying these houses and why. It is important to remember these groups have an agenda that often makes it difficult to get a clear picture of what is really unfolding.

 

Ultimately the higher cost of taxes, local fees, utilities, insurance, maintenance costs, general labor, and just about everything flows into the housing market. Other factors such as interest rates, availability of long term money, and regulations act as additional barriers to buying residential properties. This intersects with huge companies with cheap Wall Street funding entering the residential market in recent years and buying up whole subdivisions. This has driven up the prices of housing in several areas. 

 

Returning to the subject of affordability, much has been written about the failure of rent controls and how they have proven detrimental to controlling rents in tight housing markets. It should be noted that the same could be said about how the government's efforts to protect renters from eviction often result in unintended consequences. In short, it means far higher rents for the rest of the renting population.

 

One thing that is clear is that we have witnessed a growing part of our population slipping into homelessness. Many of these people have resorted to living in their vehicle if they have one, or on the street or under a bridge. This trend, as well as the causes behind it, are well documented and have been reported by almost every respected news outlet.

 

One of the main factors driving this trend is often overlooked, and that is our government. The government holds huge responsibility for a rising share of our housing problems in low-income situations because its policies avoid dealing with the growing number of tenants who are irresponsible. Government housing cherry-picks the best of the low-income renters providing them with very low rents and nice apartments and dumps the rest on the private sector.  

 

By bending over backward to "protect the consumer" the government and courts are creating an army of irresponsible people who go through life exploiting loopholes in the system.

The Fact Is Lazy, Dirty, Undisciplined People Make Many Of Their Own Problems

This even goes as far as making it much harder to check the credit of someone wanting to rent to protect a person's privacy, cast aside is the fact those of us renting an expensive piece of property are putting themselves at great financial risk. Landlords find their claims are usually pursued and disputed in the small claims division of the court where getting an eviction or judgment against a bad tenant has become increasingly time-consuming and expensive. 

Adding to this ugly reality are limits often in place that mean only a fraction of their loss will be covered, these can be as low as $1,500. It is not difficult for unpaid rent and damages to greatly exceed this amount. It must be noted that getting a judgment in your favor does not mean it will ever be paid and that these people continue to move from place to place causing havoc wherever they go.

It is very possible the best way to address or level the playing field would be to move away from public housing and give those needing housing aid "rent-only vouchers" that could be used with any landlord. This would immediately bring more small landlords from the private sector into the game. In a world where supply and demand feed into determining prices, it is logical this would make housing less expensive.

 

Placing those renters with the least problems into quasi-government projects and burdening the private sector with the "most troubled" is not the answer to easing homelessness. To make matters worse, a slew of mandates are then placed upon this sector dictating what constitutes things such as minimum housing standards while limits are slapped upon recouping losses incurred from damages or non-paid rent. 

 

This is the major reason so many houses in America sit empty or underutilized. Under current conditions, the owners of many housing units would rather let them sit empty than deal with or risk what happens when they are put up for rent. Being a landlord is not as much fun as some people think in a society where responsibility is growing into a rare trait.

 

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: The Yen May Be About To Top Out, Maybe

Advancing Time: The Yen May Be About To Top Out, Maybe: The Yen may be about to top out, maybe, there are no guarantees. I contend that Japanese banks are in trouble. Not only are the BOJ bon...

The Yen May Be About To Top Out, Maybe

The Yen may be about to top out, maybe, there are no guarantees. I contend that Japanese banks are in trouble. Not only are the BOJ bonds they are holding losing value but, like American banks, I suspect they are holding American bonds that have lost a lot of value. It is only logical that over the years they made this part of the carry trade. If this theory is correct, it may be part of why we are seeing increased market volatility.

In a recent video by Brent Johnson titled: "Market Volatility Unshackled," at about the 28-and-a-half minute mark Johnson gives what I consider a very good explanation of the currency situation unfolding in Japan. While not saying what is happening in Japan is the reason American markets fell last week it plays into the big picture. Still, Japan must deal with the fallout from the BOJs recent rate hike. Johnson also makes it clear things do not go in a straight line and nothing is guaranteed.

The debate over the future of Japan continues. The idea that when investors in Japan's government bonds begin to believe inflation is not going away as the yen is debased supports the construct it would be logical for owners of  JGBs to move out of low-yielding securities and buy foreign bonds or equities. The moment the Japanese stock market fails to rise enough to offset a falling yen and inflation this will turn into a tsunami of money fleeing Japan and constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen.

Japan's economy is currently plagued by several problems. These have to be hammering its banks. Not only does Japan have a huge national debt, and a shrinking population, but over the years the country's trade surplus has fallen. As of now, its auto industry is out of step with the EV craze being fostered upon people by governments across the world. Also, its ties with China have had a negative impact on its economy. 

This is a matter that has not garnered enough attention, China's economic problems are likely spilling over and directly impacting Japan. Over the years China and Japan became major trading partners. Japanese direct investments in China surged as Japanese technology played a critical role in the development and competitiveness of China’s global supply chains. 

It is important to remember there are a lot of parts or plumbing in the global financial system that we don't see. Note the financial system and the economy may intersect but are not the same thing. Ignoring this fact, as many people do, will come back to haunt them. This includes the massive number of different regulations in countries and areas across the world. These all feed into making the financial landscape very dangerous. 

 

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)