Saturday, August 3, 2019

Somethings Got To Give! - The Ugly Economic End Game

Edvard Munch, The Scream
It is very possible we are moving towards an economic Armageddon that will shake the world to its core. The numbers simply don't work. When the markets succumb to the fact that current economic policies have failed all will collapse. Following the onset of such a collapse central banks will be forced to unleash huge massive amounts of new currency into the system to combat the scourge of deflation. This mind staggering shift will in effect clear the deck of deadwood through hyperinflation. It will also, most likely, pave the way forward to introduce a new or a "batch of new" currencies.

Call it a multi-generational "re-alignment" if you wish, but in reality, it is the recognition that our path was an unsustainable illusion. By declaring "that a new start" has been deemed the best path out of the legal morass that contagion and collapse has rendered those in charge of such things can throw the common man under the bus. In such a situation, the debts that are not written off will become a moot point in that most will be devalued and paid off in worthless paper. The important issue will not be fairness but how to get from here to there with the least damage to the institutions and wealth those in power seek to protect. Sooner or later all great Ponzi schemes must come to an end.

We are but pawns in the giant game known as the global economy. Please excuse the tone of this article, it is rooted in the idea that on occasion it is good to vent or say what is on our mind. Sometimes we have to simply concede things are what they are and find solace in the thought that things could be far worse. You can expect promises to be rewritten and broken. Rules will change as we go through the wash. Most people will see their assets rinsed away as society is put through the wringer. For example, expect the cost of living adjustment on social security to be modified reducing payments to the elderly. Adding to the woes of retirees is that many pensions will be forced to reduce payouts and break promises as the returns on their investment fail to meet expectations. Many of the guarantees and paper promises granted over the past decades will prove to be less valuable than the paper they are printed on.

Global Debt Has Surged Since 2008
Blame the Fed if you like but it does little to alter the reality or ugly road ahead. The Fed's past collusion with Goldman Sachs and the fact it has been complicit in allowing other central banks to massively expand credit has garnered far too little attention. The scheme to transfer wealth to the large banks is intact and most Americans know something is wrong but are too busy with their day to day existence to react. There is a huge revolving door between large financial institutions and government that allows former employees with connections and strong ties to policies to flow freely back and forth between the two and the conflict it raises. We need only look at the soaring national debt to see this wave of crony capitalism will soon sweep us off our feet. This is a form of government corruption that has inflicted pain upon people throughout history.

With big business increasingly exerting its power over small enterprises. We the people are trapped in a world where our options are rapidly vanishing. In many ways, those in control have paved over economic reality masking and covering a multitude of sins against the laws of supply and demand. It is impossible to deny this has also taken its toll on "true price discovery" that allows our economic system to adjust and properly function. As pawns in this game, we can either choose to sacrifice ourselves or fight. In this case, fighting means to undertake a strategy that protects what we can of the life we have created within the power we have been granted. The fact you are reading and thinking about this subject puts you in a far better position than the masses who see before them blue skies and unicorns grazing upon a hill.

As the global economy moves forward it is difficult to ignore that it is constructed on a weak foundation of imbalances, lies, and excesses. We only need to look towards China with its ghost cities and the fact its massive factories continue to crank out far more steel than is needed. Across the world, debt has exploded as wages stagnate. Countries have borrowed against the future by running up huge deficits. Good jobs based on creating and doing a real task that can be economically justified are in short supply. The situation has become dire and the numbers do not work, borrowing money to merely pay the interest on past debt and NIRP is not a prescription that leads to economic nirvana and bliss.

Make no mistake, we cannot and should not look for a white knight to come riding in to save the day, no such leader exists to lead us out of the economy hell we have created. Predictions of  "lost decades" are not uncommon as we recover and struggle to find a path forward. Here in America, we see a field of over twenty presidential hopefuls that will soon be weened down but do not expect a hero to emerge. In the end, the system we have created will ask a majority of voters to cast their ballot for the candidate they "hate the least" or in more politically correct terms the "least of two evils".  Adding to our woes is the constant reminder that even if we garner up the enthusiasm to go to the polls rather than disengaging from the process the poorly crafted electoral college will soon strip us of any illusion that all votes are created equal. In the end, a few voters in some "battleground" state will make the final decision as to our fate.

Returning to the subject of the economic end game, make no mistake, periods of rapid credit expansion always end the same way and that is in default. This translates into a major shift in wealth. Global debt has surged since 2008, to levels that should frighten any sane investor because debt has always had consequences. Much of the massive debt load hanging above our heads in 2008 has not receded or gone away it has merely been transferred to the public sector where those in charge of such things feel it is more benign. By a series of off-book and backdoor transactions, those in charge have transferred the banks loses onto the shoulders of the people, however, shifting the liability from one sector to another does not alleviate the problem. As noted earlier, the fact you are reading and thinking about this subject puts you in a far better position than the masses to weather the coming storm.

12 comments:

  1. It's all so easy for you to provide the panacea, isn't it, with the obligatory proviso that "things could be far worse". this is to assuage the sensibilities of typical, sappy Americans that need to hear yet more bullshit. You never say where you get this "hyperinflation" idea from. I suppose you think the banks are just going to lend this "new currency" to anybody with or without collateral... and the fact that people have neither money nor collateral makes them bad risks.

    In fact, ANYTHING except the reality... which is that we're all going to starve to death like in the Great Depression (which wasn't that bad, actually, but don't tell anyone). This time, there is no hope. Nobody can save us from ourselves. The best (and only) solution is the most likely: a general nuclear holocaust which wipes out 90% of humanity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your solution of a "general nuclear holocaust" may be a bit drastic. Still, being stripped of your savings and security can be very painful.
      Americans will not starve but most will see a major reduction in their standard of living. Just be aware that a storm is coming and position yourself to weather its fury.

      Delete
    2. There are no "Americans"--there are just people living in America. Whether they will starve or not is an open question.

      Delete
    3. I bet you're fun at Thanksgiving

      Delete
  2. I think many Americans WILL starve. Who is going to feed them?

    ReplyDelete
  3. This seems very like the hyperinflation warnings we've been hearing for years. On the one hand - there's nothing left in the monetary toolbox and clearly the current system of supporting declining wages through debt growth seems unsustainable. But are saying that a tide of new QE will be unleashed? And if it is - what can the ordinary citizen do to combat it?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Bruce,
    Ive posted here a few times. I am a landlord in a medium sized southern college town. The University mafia basically runs this place. I've sold a lot of things the last 2 years. I had a ramshackled house, in a not very good location. I wanted to sell it because it was getting more and more difficult to find decent tenants, but figured I couldn't get much. Because of the hideous RE bubble, I just made up a price of $250k to see what would happen, and it sold immediately. It was appraised at $100k. He let the house sit there for months, then tore it down. The guy waited months to start building, and missed the cycle. He was able to jam 2 houses on a .33 acre lot. And he has the rent listed as $4k. Over the last 4 years we've been able to almost double the rent on our remaining property. The city council ignores most zoning laws, and even commissioned a report that told them to stop building, then they ignored that too. This makes '08 look pretty pale in comparison.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chazz, Good to hear from you again and thanks for the comment. Also congratulations on your sale. Depending on how ambitious you are and ready to jump back into the mix I suspect many opportunities will present themselves in the near future.
      Several of my recent posts cover the insanity currently raging throughout the economy. One has to do with tax sale property and another with building very expensive housing for the homeless. Be careful out there and I look forward to hearing from you again.

      Delete
  5. https://roacheforque.blogspot.com/2019/09/it-has-begun.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi. I've been reading your blog for a few months now and agree with you on many issues. However, I am skeptical of the dire prognostications that you and others make regarding our economic future. I have been reading about the impending economic collapse, dollar collapse, hyperinflation, etc. for almost 15 years now and yet it just never seems to happen. Yes, the debt is absurdly high, but is it really unsustainable? Many other countries, including China, Japan, and most European nations, are deeply in debt and their situation is much worse than ours. The Europeans already have sky high taxes and still are drowning in debt, yet they continue to hum along rather well. Japan has ad a debt to GDP ratio of 200+% for many years now and yet it, too, is humming along OK. I believe that ultimately there will be a debt crisis in the form of higher interest rates and then some nations will begin to either "restructure" or default. The American and European central banks will intervene to lower rates and bail out the govts. What effect this will have on the currency and prices is uncertain in my opinion, but I just don't see *hyper*inflation happening; maybe some modest inflation, 5-10% a year for example, but that's it. We have already had significant inflation in food prices for the past decade despite the govt. propaganda that inflation is below 2%, so I certainly see prices on some things continuing to rise, but will there really be a catastrophe? I'm just not convinced. Right now the USA is the least rotten apple in the bushel, though, and capital is flooding in which only strengthens the dollar thus limiting price inflation. Could the world lose confidence in the dollar? Yes, I suppose, but where else are they going to go? Thanks for your commentary.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dave2020, thanks for your comment. I recognize such a lengthy and though out comment takes a bit of work to produce.

      While markets may climbing a wall of worry and advance over time history shows when they fall out of bed their decline can occur very rapidly. Another important thing to remember is we can accurately predict nothing when it comes to the future economy. Joining these two ideas together I have come up with an answer to your question. If and when wealth flees fiat currencies and flows into tangible assets we will see fireworks.

      With this in mind for years I thought limited world resources would drive inflation but this was proven wrong because of new technologies. It is difficult to argue things have been held in check by improved production methods allowing us to produce often at a lower cost.

      Still, the economy has a lot of moving parts and something more important is going on. The growth in debt and overall money supply is far outpacing the growth in real tangible assets. Just this morning I read an interesting article you might find interesting. It is titled; 'An inflationary Depression." the link is below

      https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/an-inflationary-depression

      Delete
  7. Sorry, this comment was meant for the latest blog entry in October.

    ReplyDelete