Anyone paying attention will most likely agree tensions in the area are escalating. America has been upping the ante by moving two carrier strike groups and other resources into the area. This is in response to what seems to be a probing of America's resolve to back Taiwan's independence. This follows America's rather benign reaction to China's recent takeover of Hong Kong. Chinese fighter jets, now cross the so-called “median line” of the Taiwan Strait at will. This brazen move violates the implicit agreement made decades ago not to cross that line.
The idea China will attack Taiwan has been battered around for years. What better time to test America's resolve than when its attention is already focused on the war in Ukraine? Currently around one million Taiwanese work and live in China and China is one of Taiwan’s most important trading partners. It accounts for an estimated 40 percent of Taiwan’s outbound trades. Taiwan's heavy dependence on China for trade and commerce complicates an already complex relationship and is another reason China resents what it views as outside interference.
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Biden then plans to travel to Japan, India, and Australia to meet with a joint security partnership called the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. During the visit, the United States and Japan are expected to release a statement calling for both countries to join together to "deter and respond to" China's aggressive military activities in the region.
In the past, China has made it clear that any interference in the area will be considered an attack on China, in reality, bringing warships into the area or increasing military exercises should not be a deal-breaker. Only an attack or bombs hitting China's mainland should constitute widening the hostilities. Simply coming to Taiwan's aid should not reach the level of elevating the conflict, however, that does not translate into saying it won't. In short, any escalation of the current situation could lead to a full-blown war.
Most people assume that any attack on Taiwan will result in a loss of life, aircraft, and most likely ships. In such a situation it is not difficult to imagine things getting out of control. If a large ship is sunk the loss of life could easily be in the hundreds or even thousands. In the past, China has never had the capability to take Taiwan. Still, from China's point of view, I cannot see that they have much to lose by rattling their swords.
In the event shit would hit the fan and bombs are dropped on a Chinese city, the Chinese people are already conditioned to view America as the aggressor. On the other hand, few Americans have ever considered such a thing happening in America and would demand a violent and harsh response to any attack within America's borders.
Adding to Biden's problem if an invasion of Taiwan does occur is that it is in China's neighborhood which is well over seven thousand miles from America. This means America is at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to resupplying troops. This is the same reason some of us claimed Putin had a big advantage in Ukraine and urged America to keep out of the conflict. Long supply lines have been the bane of military leaders since distant wars began.
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This is a war Beijing would want to win incisively and swiftly. The largest barriers to such a victory are Taiwan's rugged shorelines, mountainous topography, and a populace that knows how to maximize these strategic features. Still, if nothing else, an attack would once and for all test how far America is willing to go in support of Taiwan. If America's response is as mild as it was to China taking over Hong Kong, China would have removed its biggest obstacle in a war with Taiwan and that is outside interference.
Such an attack would also signal to the world China is ready to cement its place as a world military power. it could also be argued this is not a conflict where China has much to lose. Other issues feed into the notion of this conflict. For example, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will hold its 20th National Party Congress later this year and as it nears things that occur will be rooted in politics rather than economics. Also, it would put the global supply chain under even more stress and since housing is no longer a source of economic growth for China, it might even turn the communist regime towards expanding its military as a way to spark growth.
Americans would be naive not to consider that even in China suffers a great number of soldiers being killed, their propaganda machine will hide the truth. America on the other hand with its attitude that every American soldier's life is precious will wither in pain. The thing we must never forget is that Chinese culture is very patient and even if we thwart its efforts to take Taiwan back into its fold, it will try again. In short, if China attacks Taiwan, America has few good options.
Footnote; For more background on China and this subject see the articles below. https://brucewilds.blogspot.