Syrian Regime Collapses, Putin Loses Key Ally, Assad

The Syrian government collapsed early Sunday, falling to a lightning rebel offensive that seized control of the capital of Damascus. A Syrian opposition war monitor and two senior army officers said early Sunday that Bashar Al Assad fled the country after the collapse of his regime to HTS militants. The Syrian leader is currently unknown. It is reported he may have tried to reach a Russian airbase but might have been shot down and killed.

The Fall Happened Very Slowly, Then All At Once

Syrian rebel forces in Damascus have now declared the capital city "free" of Bashar al-Assad after nearly 25 years of rule. Former head of MI6 Sir John Sawers expressed his view to Sky News that he is surprised at how fast the Syrian regime collapsed after a lightning offensive by rebels. The offensive, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was set up in 2012 under a different name, al-Nusra Front.It pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda the following year and then, in 2016, publicly broke ranks with al-Qaeda. Still, it remains designated as a terrorist organization by the UN, US, Turkey, and other countries. 

The US has even named the group's leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, as a specially designated global terrorist and has offered a $10m reward for information that leads to his capture. Jawlani, possibly to lessen opposition to his actions, told CNN on Friday that "the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime" and he planned to create a government based on institutions and a "council chosen by the people."

This rapid shift in Syria has brought about all kinds of speculation as to what happens next. This includes how many refugees might rapidly return home to Syria and how it will impact Geo-politics across the globe. This extends to Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Some of this focuses on Putin being humiliated. Putin had been a key backer of the Syrian regime for over a decade, says Bill Browder, human rights campaigner and British financier who fled Russia. This dovetails with the idea Putin and Russia are in a weakened state due to the war in Ukraine, a view that is strongly debated.

Aleppo Is Just One Of The Many Cities Destroyed

By reassuring and almost encouraging the people of Syria to rise up and overthrow their brutal leader, Obama started a series of events that has taken countless lives and destroyed millions of others. Three of the most damaging developments flowing from this are the development of ISIS, the flow of millions of refugees into Europe, and the bombing and destruction of cities and innocent civilians. Continued violence in the region over the last decade has spurred the destabilizing mass migration of millions of people from the area.

As for how optimistic we should be, we need only look at what unfolded following the regime collapse in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi. Unstable political regimes flowing from overthrowing existing governments by force do not have as good a track record as most people tend to believe. 

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)