The Fed Should Not Follow The Path Of The BOJ

America and the Fed may not be able to follow the path the Bank of Japan forged over the years, and it should not. Cutting rates and buying long-term bonds to artificially keep rates low may not work when it comes to the US dollar. The big difference is that the dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and the yen is not. 

More Fed Intervention In The Markets Destroys True Price Discovery

A massive increase in the Fed balance sheet is a scary prospect and opens the door for central banks across the world to do likewise. This hogties the Fed's options going forward. While everything is relevant when it comes to fiat currencies, this notion is hijacked by the advantage the dollar gets from being the worlds reserve currency. Currently this advantage is fully built into valuations. 

It is kind of a "weird" thought that the Fed might move in this direction voluntarily. Most likely such a shift would only occur if the global financial system was coming apart at the seams. Even then, increased intervention would not be a "cure all" and likely make things even worse.

In a past article. I built a case that the BOJ, by buying all of Japan's bonds and a huge quantity of stock market ETFs, was in effect nationalizing the country. Buying all the debt used to finance Japan's government and propping up Japan's stock market put it on the path towards owning everything. The piece focused on the flaw of creating a false and unsustainable economy. This type of action is not good for the fiat currency of any nation.

Any indication the Fed might follow the BOJ's footprint would have huge ramifications for global markets. When central banks or the government becomes a buyer they are generally don't care what the price is, this destroys true price discovery. Tied to resonable valuations are inflation expectations and long-term stability. 

More intervention in markets could also unleash a bomb in the derivative markets, and that has the potential to do far more damage than any move to slash rates would create. This dovetails with the idea the Fed has painted itself into a corner. Still, we should not underestimate the many other ways and tools central banks and governments have to postpone the day of reckoning. 

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)