Advancing Time: Gold, They Make Diamonds, Is Gold Next?

Advancing Time: Gold, They Make Diamonds, Is Gold Next?:     Never forget the power of disruptive technology. Near the end of January, the emergence of DeepSeek as an inexpensive alternative to Ch...

Gold, They Make Diamonds, Is Gold Next?

 

 

Never forget the power of disruptive technology. Near the end of January, the emergence of DeepSeek as an inexpensive alternative to ChatGPT made headlines across the world. DeepSeek is a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup. Its latest model, DeepSeek R1, is said to be better than its rival's technology in its capabilities and cost far less to create. This underlines how markets can be disrupted by new technology.

Considering how the announcement of DeepSeek roiled markets, imagine what would happen if someone came up with a way to create gold. For years they have made a substitute for natural diamonds, what if they develop a way to make Gold? History is full of people who have tried this with no success.

Years ago, improvements in what are known as synthetic or laboratory-grown diamonds (LGD) started to greatly impact the diamond market. This is one of the reasons today you rarely hear that diamonds are a great investment. Jewelers who are trained gemologists may be able to tell whether a diamond is lab-grown with the aid of a powerful microscope but the only way to be certain is to send it to a gemological laboratory.

While natural diamonds form deep in the Earth and are obtained by mining. Chemically, physically, and optically, lab diamonds are identical to natural diamonds. A synthetic diamond or lab-grown diamond (LGD), also known as a man-made, artisan-created, artificial, synthetic, or cultured diamond, is produced in a controlled technological process. Both have the same hardness, brilliance, and fire.

This brings us to the question of whether lab-grown diamonds are real. Yes, lab-grown diamonds are as real as natural diamonds are. Their only difference is their origin. These are not "imitation diamonds" made of superficially similar non-diamond materials. Synthetic diamonds are composed of the same pure carbon crystallized material as naturally formed diamonds.

This takes us to the crux of this post, It is important to understand that we are in the midst of a technological revolution where barriers are falling and our limits to manipulate atoms is accelerating. Just 26 minutes into this recent panel discussion, Dr. Pippa Malmgren takes off on the remarkable and unlimited changes that are about to take place and she claims they will be happening far sooner than most people think.

Please join me in a peek down a rabbit hole and imagine tomorrow waking up to find that at a fraction of the cost of mining gold, the world could now produce large quantities of gold for very little. We are seeing the boundaries of possibility rolled back by technology and innovation. Whether you call it making, creating, or printing, the idea gold could be cheaply produced would have huge ramifications for its value and the whole economic system. This is especially true if it could be produced rapidly in large quantities at a cost substantially cheaper than it can currently be mined. 

For years gold has been considered the only "real money" by economists distinguishing it from tokens produced by governments to be used in commerce. They point to how unlike fiat currency no sovereign states cannot simply print more gold. Thus we have sayings like "as good as gold." To say the ability to produce huge amounts of gold at a low cost would be a game-changer is an understatement. It would turn global banking upside down and result in a huge transfer of wealth.  

The one thing you can count on is that the ability to cheaply produce a product indistinguishable from gold would give a whole new meaning to the term false gold. Another is that it would have profound implications for those holding their wealth in this precious metal. I'm not predicting this will happen, in fact, I don't see it likely. Still, the message here is we should never underestimate how technological advancements can result in watershed change.

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Penny Moves Closer To The Dustbin Of History

Advancing Time: Penny Moves Closer To The Dustbin Of History: A few weeks ago, on the floor of the Senate, Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) outlined the goals of the DOGE Caucus. She brought up the cost of mak...

Penny Moves Closer To The Dustbin Of History

A few weeks ago, on the floor of the Senate, Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) outlined the goals of the DOGE Caucus. She brought up the cost of making both the penny and the nickel. The cost of producing the penny has now soared to three cents and producing the nickel is eleven cents. The penny is a great example of government waste. Coins are meant to be a simple and efficient medium for the exchange of goods and services. The argument for discontinuing the penny is overwhelming, anyone still supporting its production most likely has not given the subject much thought or is resistant to change.

The Penny No Longer Makes Sense

The waste DOGE is bringing to our attention is backed up by the folks at Retire The Penny. Org. Adding to the argument that the penny should go is the number of hours wasted every year handling pennies or waiting for people to go through several penny-handling-related events. These events include waiting for people to dig through their pockets or purses to find that last cent so they can pay for something with exact change. They probably do this, so they don't get stuck with more pennies.

Halting the production of the penny is not a new subject here on AdvancingTime. Over the years I have written several articles attacking the insanity of producing a coin so low in value that it cost businesses money to handle. It has become very clear that faced with the increasing costs for handling, storing and transporting pennies, the penny has become a burden to the economy. The logic of discontinuing  producing the penny has massively increased post-Covid with fewer people using cash and the inflation we have experienced during the last few years. 

 

Currency should be designed by the government as a simple and efficient medium for exchanging goods and services. In March of 2012, Canada decided to do away with its puny penny coin. Loved by some but an annoyance to many, it was withdrawn from circulation because it costs too much to make and had become a pecuniary pest. Ottawa said the penny retained only one-twentieth of its original purchasing power and discontinuing the penny was expected to save around $11 million a year.

Other nations have either ceased to produce or have removed low denomination coins the list includes Australia, Brazil, Finland, Israel, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Britain, and as stated above Canada. By the time it was discontinued many Canadians considered the penny more of a nuisance than a useful coin.

Using Pennies For A Bathroom Floor

Today, the cost and numbers to produce the American penny blow the Canadian numbers out the water. It costs our country billions of dollars,  year after year, this amount of waste adds up. Simply put, the American penny doesn't make sense! When weighed and measured is found lacking. Too many people, the penny has become a horrible little thing with no redeeming value.

 

The penny is costly to produce, no friend to the environment, wasting America’s resources and  sapping our productivity. To make matters worse,  not only does the government continue making the penny but over the years it has even made new versions of the penny. Our government has forgotten that it is not the job of the well-paid employees of the treasury to create collectibles or to pander to small segments of the population by designing coins commemorating or recognizing minor events.
  
For many years there have been discussions about discontinuing the penny which has become obsolete because of its minuscule purchasing value. The penny is a perfect example of our government's inefficiency and waste, and the cost is a burden carried by businesses. Businesses lose profit when paying an employee to count pennies, the cost of the labor exceeds their value. If an employee is paid $12.00 an hour they receive twenty cents per minute. As far back as 2018, the “Citizens to Retire the Penny” claimed it cost America one hundred million dollars a year to produce the penny, and more than 15 billion dollars annually is wasted in handling it.
 

Also, from an environmental standpoint, the penny is a disaster when you consider all the energy used to make, transport, and distribute this useless coin. There is no doubt the penny is destined for the dustbin of history, it is only a question of when. Ditching the penny would cost nothing and with a flourish of the executive pen create huge annual savings for business but such a move remains fiercely opposed by metal alloy industries.

 

This article dovetails with an AdvancingTime post from the fall of 2021 titled; The War On Cash, Is It A Real Thing? The Answer Is Yes. It delves into how cash reflects "options for the people" and it appears those in charge of such things want it gone. This may be why you have not been hearing about the penny being dropped or a new dollar coin being introduced. Today it is all about Central Bank Digital Currencies. These are digital versions of a country’s physical currency issued by central banks.

 

While CBDC will replace much of the physical currency we use today, the premise of why this is being done deserves to be scrutinized. We should not underestimate the need for coinage and cash in society. Small businesses often rely more on small cash transactions, it is the banks, big businesses, and companies like Amazon that flourish when cash is removed. Simply put, in general, the small businesses and retailers on Main Street are left worse off. 

 

A few years ago, it was pointed out that if we just got rid of the penny, the U.S. Mint would cut its work in half. This figure does not include the time, fuel, expense, and hassle of carting all of those pennies around to the banks, merchants, etc. Small things matter, if our politicians can’t get this right how can they ever deal with the more important issues facing our nation? The time to ditch the penny has arrived so we can focus on more important matters.

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog) 

Advancing Time: DOGE, Its Goals, Its Caucus, And The Hope It Will ...

Advancing Time: DOGE, Its Goals, Its Caucus, And The Hope It Will ...: The formation of the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been hailed by many people as a game changer. When its formation was an...

DOGE, Its Goals, Its Caucus, And The Hope It Will Work

The formation of the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been hailed by many people as a game changer. When its formation was announced, Elon Musk, one of the two men chosen with the task of leading it suggested he could cut at least $2 trillion in federal spending. Hope immediately soared with many people reacting like this claim was a done deal. Unnoticed by many Musk enthusiasts was that he soon rolled back expectations calling this a best-case scenario. 

DOGE's Efforts May Be Halted By Lawsuits

Now that Trump is in office, reality sets in, and what happens next is far from certain. Cutting government spending is easier said than done. This is apparent when Musk talks about cutting the jobs of government workers. He said the aim of DOGE was not to be cruel. He went on to say, "We will reduce a lot of government headcount, but we're going to give very long severances. Like two years, or something like that." To reality seekers, this conflicts with the idea that DOGE will bring about rapid and long lasting cuts.

While it won’t be an actual federal agency, other government agencies will hire DOGE teams to interface with them in an effort to find savings. This story just gained a new wrinkle, as an article following the inauguration revealed that one of its two co-leaders, Vivek Ramaswamy, plans to leave DOGE. This leaves DOGE needing someone to run the day-to-day operations and interface with Congress. A very busy Elon Musk already runs SpaceX and his other companies. 

This is starting to feed into Tesla's future and even Tesla's stock price as Musk is left with too much to do. It does not help that President Donald Trump pledged in his inauguration speech to undo the huge "electric vehicle mandate." This means Biden’s multibillion-dollar effort to usher in a transition to electric vehicles is slatted to be rendered void. 

The goals of the DOGE are huge, they include;

• Restructuring the federal government of the United States.
• Removing regulations to reduce expenditures.
• Increasing government efficiency.
• Cutting wasteful spending.
• Recommending elimination of unneeded government spending.

Still, government waste is huge and many cuts can be made. A few days ago, on the floor of the Senate, Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) outlined the goals of the DOGE Caucus. Six and a half minutes into this video from Forbes Breaking News, Ernst claims if you can't find waste in Washington, you aren't looking. She then talks about the cost of making both the penny and the nickel. The cost of producing the penny has now soared to three cents and producing the nickel is eleven cents. These are the low fruit on the tree of government waste.

The cost of producing coins many people don't want represent billions in waste and making matters worse there are not hundreds of wasteful government programs but thousands. Over the years I have written several articles about how it is time to toss the penny into the dustbin of history. This is not an obsession but rather an observation based on reason. Today, getting rid of small value coins is even more relevant.The the post-COVID war on cash and inflation has eroded their value and buying power.

In 2018, when it costs only 1.6 cents to produce each one-cent coin stamped out discontinuing the penny would have saved $11 million a year. It was pointed out here on AdvancingTime that the President could pay for his wall by stopping the production of the penny saving America billions of dollars, most of it from handling the near worthless little coin.  

Even back then, the penny was a perfect example of our government's inefficiency and waste, and the cost is a burden carried by business. I explained that if an employee is paid $12.00 an hour they receive twenty cents per minute. Businesses simply cannot afford to pay an employee to handle and count pennies, the cost of the labor exceeds their value. Back then, the “citizens to retire the penny” said more than 15 billion dollars annually is wasted just in handling the pathetic little coin.

Is DOGE A Self-Serving Tool For Musk?

Back in 2018 during Trump's first term the government shut down over an impasse concerning 25 billion dollars to build a wall on America's southern border. Many people who are not fans of big government did not have a problem with the shutdown. The problem is that in the end, unlike life in the private sector, it is standard operating procedure to grant all these government workers retroactive pay. In short, it is stupid to pay government workers to stay home over a few billion dollars in a  budget of well over five trillion dollars.

Most Americans agree there is a lot of waste in government spending.The big question is whether DOGE will be able to have any real impact on reducing spending and the size of our government. This will be an uphill battle. It is the nature of government to expand. Much of our governments growth has been hidden by outsourcing, forming quasi-governmental entities, and expanding its power through mandates. Until I see significant results, paint me skeptical.

 

Footnote: This is the link to the article about how discontinuing the penny in 2018 would have quickly paid for building a wall on the border.
https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/12/getting-rid-of-penny-would-pay-for.html

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Revisiting Why EVs Are Not The Answer

Advancing Time: Revisiting Why EVs Are Not The Answer: It is time to revisit why EVs are not the answer. Over the years many articles have focused on EVs being over-hyped as an answer to our tran...

Revisiting Why EVs Are Not The Answer

It is time to revisit why EVs are not the answer. Over the years many articles have focused on EVs being over-hyped as an answer to our transportation needs. Many are tied to the inability of EVs to solve our environmental problems. In fact, these vehicles have the potential to cause more harm to the environment than good. Edicts from above tend to be skewed by bias rather than common sense. Consider that EVs may not be the answer to a more sustainable world. 

High Insurance Costs And Other Factors Are Surfacing To Slow Sales

Governments pushed by possibly misdirected environmental zealots have been fostering mandates upon their citizens removing the the freedom of consumers to choose the kind of automobile they want to buy. This, top-down decision-making by flawed politicians and their powerful friends in business often fails to produce good results. The sad reality is that many of our preferences as a society are not organic or even the best choice when put under a microscope. This brings forth the question of whether it is wise for those in power to push EV demand and the use of subsidies to push forward questionable agendas. 

What type of vehicles we choose to drive should be governed by logic and choice. The idea Electric vehicles are less damaging to the environment has been broadly accepted by many people as fact. The notion EVs are good for the planet is a key factor for many of those deciding to buy an electric car. This idea or myth has been debunked by many people knowledgeable on the subject. In a very insightful video titled "Mandates vs. Freedom" Mark Mills argues the switch to EVs will not happen as some people think and that it shouldn't. This video is well worth the time to watch.

Many articles have been written pointing out that EVs are far from environmentally friendly and that a rapid shift to them is a wasteful use of current resources, Mills strongly supports this viewpoint. A far better choice is making internal combustion engines and vehicles better. This extends into removing government mileage restrictions that have resulted in American automakers and others flooding the market with huge SUVs and four-door pick-up trucks to sidestep the auto mileage requirements placed on cars. 

Then, there is the hard-to-ignore possibility that those shaping the world that we live in are busy creating a world they want to live in as elites and put the masses in a subservient position. They are often referred to as the Davos crowd or WEF. Their message, "You Will Own Nothing And Be Happy" does not resonate with everyone. Pushing EVs down our throats and self-driving cars that can be directed from above could be considered a part of this agenda.

To most Americans who have grown up with an automobile, the idea may sound foreign or strange but within a few years, only a small percentage of us may be allowed to own or operate a vehicle. I'm not predicting this will happen overnight but this is likely to unfold over several years as big tech slowly tightens the screw and asserts more control over our lives.

Across the world, the failure of governments to produce efficient transportation systems is evident. This is apparent by money-bleeding public bus transport in many areas. Something is very wrong with governments that create expensive public bus systems that carry few riders and simply shift around empty buses. The numbers on my city's bus company's website reveal just how badly it spends our money. The numbers are ugly and they exist mostly because the average taxpayer does not pay any attention to the costs of these systems.

No article on EVs would be complete without mentioning China which is pushing to become the automaker of the world, this is a game changer. Automobiles are one of the largest and most expensive items that consumers purchase. China's goal translates into putting all competitors in other countries out of business with super-cheap EVs. China's system of state-controlled markets and subsidies has a strong advantage over market-driven capitalism in the short term. 

Subsidies are more direct and worse than creating incentives or giving encouragement. Subsidies are a transfer of wealth. Without a doubt, many "false booms" are the result of scams created through subsidies. While it could be argued subsidies have moved the production and innovation in the EV industry forward, it brings up other issues.  A huge question is whether this has created a situation where other governments have strayed down the same wrong path in an effort to spur growth. The current housing crises and ghost cities in China stand as a monument to misdirected capital, the squandering of assets, corruption, and government stupidity.

Several news agencies have reported that masses of unsold Chinese EVs are piling up and blocking European Ports. Interestingly the timing of this coincides with an announcement by Tesla that sparked another rally in its stock. With enthusiasm for EVs on the wane, Tesla's soaring stock price may have more to do with Elon Musk's image boost due to his association with President Trump than its prospects. It should also be noted that, for now, the Chinese EV sector wants and needs Tesla to generate the hope that the U.S. and China can work together in the EV space.

 

Footnote; Below are links to several past AdvancingTime articles that you might find interesting.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/05/passenger-rail-must-be-redesigned.html

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/12/Public Transportation, My City And Empty Buses.html 

https://Danger Ahead China Is Pushing Hard To Be Worlds Only Automaker .html

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2023/09/subsidies-corrupt-economies-china.html  

https://Chinese EVs Are Piling Up And Blocking European Ports.html

And finally, this short video by Piston Pundit screams more problems for EVs ahead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7XbYl0gXaA

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Housing Crash Will Not Hit All Areas Equally

Advancing Time: Housing Crash Will Not Hit All Areas Equally: You may have been hearing that housing prices are about to crash and that prices are already falling in many areas. This storm will not hit ...

Housing Crash Will Not Hit All Areas Equally

You may have been hearing that housing prices are about to crash and that prices are already falling. This storm will not hit all areas with the same force. It is a fact that if this does occur, the housing cash will not hit all regions equally. I contend big Mac mansions will take the bulk of the beating. Also, coastal areas where the prices have rocketed to the moon are subject for a pullback. 

Weather and environmental concerns remain an issue as do regulations on how they must be rebuilt following storm damage. In a recent video, MHFIN explores the growing concerns about a potential real estate market crash, focusing on insights from economist Robert Shiller. In this video, they draw parallels to today's market, particularly in the southern United States. They focus heavily on why some experts believe we may be headed for another housing downturn.

I, on the other hand, believe the first pullback in prices has started but after the nervousness subsides, some sectors of the market will do rather well. This is a situation of supply and demand. Finding safe stable reasonably priced housing with amenities remains in short supply. During times of economic uncertainty, people who want to move and buy, will seek safety.

Many Older Northern Cities Fail To Meet What Boomers Want

Older modest homes fall into this category, especially homes modest in size. They also have lower taxes and insurance. A big factor in where support will come in has to do with cash buyers. If enough people are able to get out of the markets with a fair share of their wealth, many will be cash buyers. Many of these buyers are older and ready to downsize. Another huge bonus is not having to do massive and expensive remodeling.  

Sellers best not wait as home prices may fall 50-80% says economist and best-selling author, Harry Dent. Using data from the past as well as looking at the type of people that buy comprise the housing market he argues a wild market is about to unfold. Still, in a rant, he claimed even if a bust occurs it is likely the Fed will crank out massive amounts of liquidity in an effort to limit the pain. 

Around 23 minutes into this Sachs Reality video, Dent turns his attention to demographics. I see this as another factor supporting "certain types" of housing. Many of the large numbers of baby boomers who are retiring are in their last homes. They are downsizing and want safe stable reasonably priced housing with amenities. I argue this might even give off-the-coast retirement communities in the south a boost. When looking into the numbers, I was surprised at how affordable they are.

Safe, Stable, And Reasonably Priced Checks A Lot Of Boxes

The older well established communities, often located around seven miles inland, avoid the recent rise in construction cost and in some cases are better built than their newer rivals. In the last few years, efforts to save money and the use of cheaper materials have reduced the quality and longevity people want. Yes, the type of housing, and location matter, if and when a housing crash does occur, the housing crash will not hit all areas equally. 

States with warm weather and low taxes will do best. Looking at the cost of living in one Florida community, the average HOA fee of around $500 a month took care of all the exterior maintenance and more, plus it provided a slew of amenities. This includes walkways, lakes, and an extensive community center. This means, that cash buyers with one or two hundred thousand dollars, could enjoy retirement living for far less than renting an apartment just about anywhere.  

 

 (Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Trump's Economic Advisers Send Mixed Messages

Advancing Time: Trump's Economic Advisers Send Mixed Messages: Recently Trump's economic adviser Stephen Moore weighed in on 'Fox & Friends Weekend. The topic was the impact of the Amazon and...

Trump's Economic Advisers Send Mixed Messages

Recently Trump's economic adviser Stephen Moore weighed in on 'Fox & Friends Weekend. The topic was the impact of the Amazon and Starbucks strikes during Christmas. Moore warned how the actions these workers were taking could backfire. All in all the interview did little to reassure me that the direction the Trump economic team was going to move us in the direction of economic Utopia. 

What Policies Will We See And How Well They Will Work?

While I have been supportive of the idea we need tariffs as a way to level the playing field when it comes to trade. I have concerns about some of Trump's proposals and his ability to push them through. The huge pork filled bill that easily just passed Congress to keep the government open screams fail to the idea anything is about to change. 

Both the Democrats and Republicans make up the "uniparty," a term to suggest that our ostensibly separate political parties function as a single party when it comes to approving new spending. This makes it difficult to think the razor-thin margin of Republicans forming the new Congress will be any more successful at curbing future spending. Adding to my woes are talks about the government diving into investing in Bitcoin and a number of other questionable ideas.

Still, the focus of this article is more on what flowed from Moore's mouth during the interview. Moore repeatedly endorsed Amazon a company that has done huge damage to Main Street and small businesses on a number of fronts. Yes, Amazon, with the help of our government, has unleashed a wave of "creative destruction" that has altered our society, but it could be argued, not in a good way.  

Moore then pushed forth how Americans under Trump should expect to see their wages go up but missed telling us how this would lower inflation. Nowhere was talk about increasing productivity. Forget the spin, this is not about whether someone is for or against unions, it is about producing a sustainable economy by increasing productivity.

Placing big business over America's small businesses that have suffered over the years is reason for concern. These large companies have lobbied their way to prosperity and are eating the lunch of American workers. If Amazon had to act the way other companies had to, it most likely would not exist.

Then there is DOGE, the "Department Of Government Efficiency." This newly created organization, headed by billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy is promising to slash at least $2 trillion from the federal budget. Much of it by slashing the number of government workers and whole departments. Both claim they can downsize the federal workforce by forcing employees to return to the office, which they hope would prompt many of them to quit.

The duo, as outside advisers, have targeted areas such as the Internal Revenue Service, the Department of Education, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They also want to review foreign aid, defense spending, and the inaccurate payments the government sends to Social Security recipients and others.

At an event in Philadelphia on October 18, Musk said, "We will reduce a lot of government headcount, but we're going to give very long severances. Like two years, or something like that." He went on to say, "The point is not to be cruel or to have people not be able to pay their mortgage or anything."

Taking a big chunk out of federal spending is easier said than done. Much of the budget supports mandatory programs, which must be funded by existing laws. Also, there are many high hurdles to clear when it comes to firing Federal workers. Paying them long generous severance pay will do little to halt spending. 

We have heard many promises of huge tax cuts mixed in with promises of cutting deficits. Trump's economic advisers are sending mixed messages, what they can or will do is still very much up in the air. I need to see results from DOGE, regulations cut, and real help for small businesses throughout America before I get excited. It might be wise to put the celebration on hold until we see results rather than just promises.

 

 (Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)