In reality blaming the medicine for illness taken after someone becomes sick does not make sense. Austerity is a term that recently has been given all kinds of negative connotations because it is often painful. Economic growth tends to mask a multitude of problems, in economics austerity refers to cutting spending often by lowering and reducing the number of benefits and public services. Austerity policies are often used by governments to try to reduce their deficit spending. Spending cutbacks are sometimes coupled with increases in taxes in an effort to demonstrate long-term fiscal solvency to creditors. It is easy to point your finger at measures taken
to reduce runaway or wasted spending and blame them for creating a
reduced spending spiral but that is unfair.
Supporters of austerity predict that a major reduction in government spending can change future
expectations about taxes and government spending, encouraging private
consumption and resulting in overall economic expansion. Critics argue that, in periods of recession and high unemployment,
austerity policies are counter-productive, because. reduced
government spending can increase unemployment, reduced government spending reduces GDP,
which means the debt to GDP ratio examined by creditors and rating
agencies does not improve and short-term government spending
financed by deficits supports economic growth when consumers and
businesses are unable to do so.
Austerity measures are typically taken if there is a threat that a government cannot honor its debt liabilities. Such a situation may arise if a government has borrowed in foreign currencies that they have no right to issue or if they have been legally forbidden from issuing their own currency. In such a situation, banks and investors may lose trust in a government's ability and/or willingness to pay its obligations and either refuse to roll over existing debts or demand extremely high-interest rates. One reason austerity is unpopular is that it is often painful to the people and the voters. Social spending programs are often targeted for cuts. Taxes are raised, port and airport fees, train and bus fares are common sources of increased user fees. Retirement ages may be raised and government pensions reduced.
In many cases, austerity measures have been associated with public protest and claims of a significant decline in the standard of living. The argument by contemporary Keynesian economists that budget deficits are appropriate when an economy
is in recession bolster this movement. They claim it reduces unemployment and helps spur GDP growth, and that in an economy
one person's spending is another person's income. If everyone is trying
to reduce their spending, the economy can be trapped in what economists
call the paradox of thrift,
worsening the recession as GDP falls. If the private sector is unable
or unwilling to consume at a level that increases GDP and employment
sufficiently, thus the argument often heard that the government should spend more, and not less.
In fact, many economists argue that austerity measures do not necessarily increase or decrease economic growth. All attempts by central governments to prop up asset prices, bail out insolvent banks, or "stimulate" the economy and deficit spending make stable growth less likely. Often the typical goal of austerity is to reduce the annual budget deficit without sacrificing growth. Over time, this should reduce the overall debt burden, as the economy grows. Blaming austerity for the blow-back from governments living beyond its means is more than unfair, we should at all times conduct business and run our government with responsible reigns on spending. If a government spends and runs its business in an austere way the issue of when to start cutting or tightening should never surface.
Footnote; At some point, the present and the future intersect, it is not just about
the deficits of today but the promises you make coming due. These promises and how they affect the financial landscape must be factored in. The bill for overspending does eventually come back to haunt you. A look at the ugly math of today is a real eye opener,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/ugly-math-made-simple.html
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Deer Commits Suicide In My Building
This may fall into the category of the strangest post I have written, it concerns a deer that committed suicide in one of my buildings. If you read my bio you would of noticed that I own properties, and that as a landlord I have a hands on approach. This often means that I'm alerted when a problem occurs. I received a call on Sunday afternoon just after 4:30 concerning a break in at an empty retail store that I have the pleasure of owning. The alarm company had dispatched the police after hearing glass being broken, this was followed by a banging sound inside the structure.
It was reported and confirmed by the police that windows had been broken, the floor was covered with blood, and the body of a large deer was found in one of the offices. The deer, from now on referred to as Bambi had ran through the front plate glass window and entered the building. Once inside she had flung herself at full speed through a reflective two way mirror. Bambi then died on the office floor. Cause of death was not confirmed, she may of bled to death from the cuts she had sustained, but more likely it was from head trauma or a broken neck.
So you have it, another day in a landlords life, this on a Sunday. The police were not allowed to help the officer from animal control carry the body from the office area because it was against department policy. So I was recruited, it was my building, thus my body. I had to question how I got so lucky, why me? We placed Bambi on a tarp to carry her out, but she slid off the tarp after a few feet so we "hoofed her out of there", this means we grabbed her by the legs to a layperson unfamiliar with deer removal. After two hours, boarding up, and cleaning up broken glass, I was left to reflect on the cost of this fun afternoon, as damage in dollar amounts fell under the insurance deductible. I don't remember this as being in the job description.
It was reported and confirmed by the police that windows had been broken, the floor was covered with blood, and the body of a large deer was found in one of the offices. The deer, from now on referred to as Bambi had ran through the front plate glass window and entered the building. Once inside she had flung herself at full speed through a reflective two way mirror. Bambi then died on the office floor. Cause of death was not confirmed, she may of bled to death from the cuts she had sustained, but more likely it was from head trauma or a broken neck.
So you have it, another day in a landlords life, this on a Sunday. The police were not allowed to help the officer from animal control carry the body from the office area because it was against department policy. So I was recruited, it was my building, thus my body. I had to question how I got so lucky, why me? We placed Bambi on a tarp to carry her out, but she slid off the tarp after a few feet so we "hoofed her out of there", this means we grabbed her by the legs to a layperson unfamiliar with deer removal. After two hours, boarding up, and cleaning up broken glass, I was left to reflect on the cost of this fun afternoon, as damage in dollar amounts fell under the insurance deductible. I don't remember this as being in the job description.
Government Loves To Grow Ever Larger
The role of Government in America is changing, over the last several decades we have seen a shift away from Adam Smith’s idea of limited government. This is occurring on federal, state, and local levels. Much of this has been in the form of mandates. Often unfunded mandates are fostered upon businesses, organizations and private citizens. Like a chameleon, often hidden while in plain view, they quietly weave their way into our lives. One cute trick I have noticed is that they tend to support each other,
by joining together, and often by collaborating on how to address
problems, this adds credibility two all the organizations involved.
If unchecked government grows - it is the nature of bureaucracy to expand. Recent advances in the last three decades in our ability to copy, edit, and print have only added to this trend, now government can easily crank out far more paper work and drown us in garbage. Many times we do not even realize that an organization has financial ties and receives funds from government. Roughly a third of money received by charities and non-profit groups flows from government. There is always some new need to be filled or service that would be useful. I for one am concerned that the use of sun-set legislation in underused or the bar set too low when it comes to extending and renewing government bodies. Remember, the best time to kill a monster is when its small!
Politicians and bureaucrats, deterred from expanding or funding programs by a few vigilant citizens, wait and find creative ways to reach their objective at a later date. They often grow by creating special bonds, attaching fees to needed services, mandating certain actions, or narrow taxes to fund new authorities, commissions, and districts. These often unneeded quasi government organizations then reach out to expand the influence and power of their directors. A new twist or phrase recently being touted and bantered about is, "private-public partnerships", this is just another step down the slippery slope leading to larger government.
Instead of focusing on the business of government and simplicity, a new proactive movement of “cuteness” cloaked in a veil of flexibility and diversity is being expanded, and we are paying the tab. Government is proud of these little pet projects, they allow bureaucrats to experiment and try new things without the personal financial risk that a businessman must take. The problem is that they are being creative on our dime, and if you have not noticed,all around the world governments are running out of money.
Footnote; for more about how government growth is often hidden please read the following, http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/12/government-includes-quasi-government.html
If unchecked government grows - it is the nature of bureaucracy to expand. Recent advances in the last three decades in our ability to copy, edit, and print have only added to this trend, now government can easily crank out far more paper work and drown us in garbage. Many times we do not even realize that an organization has financial ties and receives funds from government. Roughly a third of money received by charities and non-profit groups flows from government. There is always some new need to be filled or service that would be useful. I for one am concerned that the use of sun-set legislation in underused or the bar set too low when it comes to extending and renewing government bodies. Remember, the best time to kill a monster is when its small!
Politicians and bureaucrats, deterred from expanding or funding programs by a few vigilant citizens, wait and find creative ways to reach their objective at a later date. They often grow by creating special bonds, attaching fees to needed services, mandating certain actions, or narrow taxes to fund new authorities, commissions, and districts. These often unneeded quasi government organizations then reach out to expand the influence and power of their directors. A new twist or phrase recently being touted and bantered about is, "private-public partnerships", this is just another step down the slippery slope leading to larger government.
Instead of focusing on the business of government and simplicity, a new proactive movement of “cuteness” cloaked in a veil of flexibility and diversity is being expanded, and we are paying the tab. Government is proud of these little pet projects, they allow bureaucrats to experiment and try new things without the personal financial risk that a businessman must take. The problem is that they are being creative on our dime, and if you have not noticed,all around the world governments are running out of money.
Footnote; for more about how government growth is often hidden please read the following, http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/12/government-includes-quasi-government.html
Saturday, April 6, 2013
Robot Factories Mean Less Jobs
If robot factories are the future then let them be located in America. While they would not necessarily be a massive creator of jobs they would at least allow us to have control of our own manufacturing. Over the last three decades, robots have become far more common in factories many have become dominated by robots. A typical factory may contain hundreds of robots working on fully automated production lines, often it rolls by on a conveyor a product can be welded, glued, painted and finally assembled at a sequence of robot stations.
Robots have replaced humans in the assistance of performing those repetitive and dangerous tasks which humans prefer not to do or are unable to do due to size limitations, or even those such as in outer space or at the bottom of the sea where humans could not survive the extreme environments. Industrial robots are also used extensively for placing products on pallets and packaging of manufactured goods, for example for rapidly taking drink cartons from the end of a conveyor belt and placing them into boxes, or for loading and unloading machining centers.
Many have blamed the decline of manufacturing jobs in America and other rich countries on outsourcing, the movement of factories to countries where labor is cheaper. The US like almost every other rich country on the planet manufactures more stuff than it ever has. Manufacturers have replaced workers with machines, they are trading labor for capital. This means the manufacturing workers who remain are many times more productive than their fore-bearers 50 years ago.
Robert Lawrence of Harvard and Lawrence Edwards of the University of Cape Town argue in "Rising Tide", that factories have gotten spectacularly more efficient. They produce more goods with fewer people, their "productivity" is rising. Manufacturing employment is shrinking not mainly because jobs are moving "offshore", but because fewer workers are needed. In most advanced countries, even those with strong export sectors, manufacturing's share of jobs has plummeted. From 1973 to 2010, manufacturing's proportion of employment fell from 22 percent to 10 percent in Canada.
As software and robots improve they will be able to expand the number of functions that they can perform. It suggests that sooner rather than later, the only people working in factories in rich countries will be those who had the time and money to get college degrees. In the past a large slice of America's middle class used to consist of people who started out working in factories, having only a high school degree and would learn on the job. There are concerns about the increasing use of robots and their role in society. Robots are blamed for rising unemployment as they replace workers in some functions.
What has happened in the manufacturing is part of a larger paradox at the heart of America's economy, says Erik Brynjolfsson, director of MIT's Center for Digital Business. "More wealth was created in the past 10 years than ever before in history," he says, "Yet at the same time, millions of people are being left behind. The median worker in the US is poorer now than in the mid-1990's." Not everyone is suffering, skilled workers, for example, are earning more than ever. So are the very rich, those who own the capital that can be put to work in the world's increasingly person-free farms, mines, and factories. But those who used to make middle-class wages are increasingly slipping into lower-paying, service-sector jobs.
Foxconn which manufactures the iPhone and many other consumer electronics and is China's largest private employer has plans to install over a million manufacturing robots within three years. Technological change is leading to the automation and about to replace off-shoring as the least expensive way to produce products. Already, China is losing jobs to countries with even lower wages. But eventually, "you run out of places to" chase the (cheap) labor," says Rodney Brooks, chief technology officer of Rethink Robotics, thanks to some very clever engineering, a robot named Baxter only costs $22,000. In the US, a person working full-time at a minimum wage makes $15,080 a year.
Brooks argues that, in its current incarnation, Baxter isn’t capable enough to replace a human worker. “The robot is not a one-to-one replacement,” says Brooks. “We see it as a tool for ordinary workers to do better.” The goal of Rethink, says Brooks, is to bring manufacturing back to the US by replacing with automation some of the repetitive tasks that are currently shipped to China and other emerging markets. It’s not a bad thing when we get more stuff for less work, the issue is, can we reinvent and redesign our economic institutions to keep pace with this change so not all of the benefits accrue to a very small number of people?”
As robots have become more advanced and sophisticated, experts and academics have increasingly explored the questions of what ethics might govern robots' behavior, and whether robots might be able to claim any kind of social, cultural, ethical or legal rights. It is possible that a robot brain will exist by 2019, others predict robot intelligence breakthroughs by 2050. We must also question the use of robots for military combat, especially when such robots are given some degree of autonomous functions. There are also concerns about technology which might allow some armed robots to be controlled mainly by other robots. The use of robots in military combat raises ethical concerns, the US Navy has funded a report looking into this.
The possibility of robot autonomy and potential repercussions has been addressed in fiction and may be a real concern in the future. One thing is certain, robots are taking our jobs and learning new tricks far faster than us humans. Automation and improvements in robots is a job killer, when you add in the dropping cost of replacing often unreliable human workers one must take a dim view of the employment picture going forward, but again I say, if robot factories are the future then let us be wise enough to try everything we can to locate them in America.
Footnote; Your comments are welcome and encouraged. If you have time check out the archives for another post that may be of interest to you. Two other articles about robots can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/09/thats-my-robot.html
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/11/drones-killer-robots-and-ugly.html
Japan's Yen Is In Play
The Yen is in play. “What Japan is doing is actually quite dangerous because
they are doing it after 25 years of just simply accumulating deficits
and not getting the economy going,” billionaire investor George Soros said in a recent interview from the sidelines of a conference in Hong Kong. Soros continued saying “So if what they are doing gets something started, they may not be
able to stop it. If the yen starts to fall, which it has done, and
people in Japan realize that it is liable to continue, and want to put
their money abroad, then the fall may become like an avalanche,”
Chief currency strategist John Kicklighter at DailyFX said in a note that there is no doubting that the scope of this effort is impressive. However, there is a disturbingly easy way it can fall apart on the BoJ – risk aversion. If equities and other richly-priced assets falter, the low yield of yen carry pairs will suffer. This is one of the reasons I again note "currency games have entered the danger zone". Central bankers have gone from managing money supplies and interest rates into the business of trying to create jobs, economies and demand, they are out of their element.
Soros also had a few ominous words for Europe a day after Mario Draghi President of the ECB opened a door to a rate cut in May as economists talked about a never-ending slowdown in the austerity-strangled euro-zone. “Japan is trying to escape after 25 years of slow death, from a policy that Europe has just now adopted. So they are moving in opposite directions. Japan is trying to escape and Europe is just starting,” Soros, founder and chairman of Soros Fund Management said.
A late update to this article. On May 22, 2013 it was announced that Japan just posted its tenth straight monthly trade deficit as a weaker yen increases the cost of imports more than it helps boost exports. In April, exports rose by 3.8% from a year earlier, while imports gained 9.4%. The deficit of 8.6 billion dollars in April was wider than many economists had forecast. Japan's goal of deliberately weakened the yen to make its goods cheaper abroad and boost demand also makes imports, such as energy, more pricey. The deficit is expected to shrink in coming months, as exports pick up more.
The danger some forget is that in our modern world money can cross a border with the press of a key on our computer. Money has gained wings, it can flee and move about with rapid speed, and it can leave destruction in its wake. The first whiff that confidence is fading might start this move. Some of the big questions are, where will it go, and into what kind of asset. I have posted on this issue before, and I caution assuming the value of any asset be it paper representing stock in a company or gold that can be seized as quickly as money in a Cyprus bank.
Footnote; A previous article on this subject is below
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-yen-and-its-value.html
Chief currency strategist John Kicklighter at DailyFX said in a note that there is no doubting that the scope of this effort is impressive. However, there is a disturbingly easy way it can fall apart on the BoJ – risk aversion. If equities and other richly-priced assets falter, the low yield of yen carry pairs will suffer. This is one of the reasons I again note "currency games have entered the danger zone". Central bankers have gone from managing money supplies and interest rates into the business of trying to create jobs, economies and demand, they are out of their element.
Soros also had a few ominous words for Europe a day after Mario Draghi President of the ECB opened a door to a rate cut in May as economists talked about a never-ending slowdown in the austerity-strangled euro-zone. “Japan is trying to escape after 25 years of slow death, from a policy that Europe has just now adopted. So they are moving in opposite directions. Japan is trying to escape and Europe is just starting,” Soros, founder and chairman of Soros Fund Management said.
A late update to this article. On May 22, 2013 it was announced that Japan just posted its tenth straight monthly trade deficit as a weaker yen increases the cost of imports more than it helps boost exports. In April, exports rose by 3.8% from a year earlier, while imports gained 9.4%. The deficit of 8.6 billion dollars in April was wider than many economists had forecast. Japan's goal of deliberately weakened the yen to make its goods cheaper abroad and boost demand also makes imports, such as energy, more pricey. The deficit is expected to shrink in coming months, as exports pick up more.
The danger some forget is that in our modern world money can cross a border with the press of a key on our computer. Money has gained wings, it can flee and move about with rapid speed, and it can leave destruction in its wake. The first whiff that confidence is fading might start this move. Some of the big questions are, where will it go, and into what kind of asset. I have posted on this issue before, and I caution assuming the value of any asset be it paper representing stock in a company or gold that can be seized as quickly as money in a Cyprus bank.
Footnote; A previous article on this subject is below
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-yen-and-its-value.html
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
White House Tours Cut Speaks Volumes
The fact that President Obama cut White House tours speaks volumes. This high profile move appears to be a another deliberate attempt to make any cuts to government spending as visible and as painful as possible. The Secret Service, which made the decision to stop providing security
for the tours said it was due to its own budget cuts under the sequester.” The White House Visitors Office put out the following announcement ;
Due to staffing reductions resulting from sequestration, we regret to inform you that White House Tours will be canceled effective Saturday, March 9, 2013 until further notice. Unfortunately, we will not be able to reschedule affected tours. We very much regret having to take this action, particularly during the popular Spring touring season. Please check this webpage for updates regarding this situation, or contact the White House Visitors Office 24 Hour Hotline at (202) 456-7041.
Sincerely,
The White House Visitors Office .
We can put the blame for this highly visible act on several, possible, different people or departments, but the President is residing in "our" White House, as our temporary guest, it is his job to make it assessable to the people, the buck stops with him. When you think that just operating Air Force 1 for an hour cost one hundred and eighty thousand dollars you quickly see what a farce halting the tours is. Shortening just one trip would allow tours to resume.
The fact that these games continue to be played says a lot about Washington. I immediately think back as to how Barack Obama gave a "New Year's gift" to returning members of Congress, Vice President Joe Biden and a slew of other federal workers when he recently signed an executive order calling for an end to a years-long pay freeze. By taking this action while many Americans are suffering and America's budget is out of control Obama makes a mockery out of any claims that he is concerned.
And if I may share a humorous comment concerning the Federal budget squeeze that came over my screen; *Next Month, the Immigration Service will begin deporting Seniors (instead of illegals) in order to lower Social security and Medicare costs. Older people are easier to catch and less likely to remember how to get back home.
Footnote; The post concerning his executive order can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/12/obama-orders-pay-raises-mocking-fiscal.html
Due to staffing reductions resulting from sequestration, we regret to inform you that White House Tours will be canceled effective Saturday, March 9, 2013 until further notice. Unfortunately, we will not be able to reschedule affected tours. We very much regret having to take this action, particularly during the popular Spring touring season. Please check this webpage for updates regarding this situation, or contact the White House Visitors Office 24 Hour Hotline at (202) 456-7041.
Sincerely,
The White House Visitors Office .
We can put the blame for this highly visible act on several, possible, different people or departments, but the President is residing in "our" White House, as our temporary guest, it is his job to make it assessable to the people, the buck stops with him. When you think that just operating Air Force 1 for an hour cost one hundred and eighty thousand dollars you quickly see what a farce halting the tours is. Shortening just one trip would allow tours to resume.
The fact that these games continue to be played says a lot about Washington. I immediately think back as to how Barack Obama gave a "New Year's gift" to returning members of Congress, Vice President Joe Biden and a slew of other federal workers when he recently signed an executive order calling for an end to a years-long pay freeze. By taking this action while many Americans are suffering and America's budget is out of control Obama makes a mockery out of any claims that he is concerned.
And if I may share a humorous comment concerning the Federal budget squeeze that came over my screen; *Next Month, the Immigration Service will begin deporting Seniors (instead of illegals) in order to lower Social security and Medicare costs. Older people are easier to catch and less likely to remember how to get back home.
Footnote; The post concerning his executive order can be found below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/12/obama-orders-pay-raises-mocking-fiscal.html
Monday, April 1, 2013
Auto Sales A Spooky Signal
Sometimes I must cover my ears as the noise from the markets is becoming to loud to handle. I would like to suggest that surging auto sales might be interpreted as a spooky signal as to what is really happening within our economy. At first glance we see they are on a roll, but we should ask what is driving this market. Pent up demand as cars simply wear out and low interest rates account for much of it, then add consumers wanting to reward themselves after a few hard years. An issue that should not be ignored is that the percentage of retail sales attributed to automobile sales has soared.
Many of the new cars hitting the road are really leases which show up as a sale, and many of them may be motivated because an automobile owner faced with a costly repair may be oping for this alternative verses putting money they do not have into their current ride. This allows someone in a weak financial position, such as those living on disability or student loans, to kick the can down the road while putting themselves into an ego boosting vehicle, one that they cannot in reality afford, or need. I contend that super low artificial interest rates are making much of this possible. If I'm correct, much of the idea of "so called pent up demand" is secondary.
On a day to day basis I deal with many small business owners it is troubling that they are not buying new vehicles for their personal use. I also think that unlike 2007 when auto and truck sales peaked, individuals are making up a larger portion of these sales then before, with businesses experiencing slow growth they are less excited about adding to their fleets. When looking into car sales it is important to take into consideration that more and more of these automobiles are being produced outside of America, this adds to the trade deficit and creates few jobs here, because of this the benefit to our economy is greatly limited and reduced.
This does not necessarily mean sales are reaching some giant bubble and will crash. Vehicles have a limited road life and are always wearing out, but what it may mean is that the upside for more sales to consumers who are not enjoying raising incomes may be waning. This is happening while the ability to produce more cars across the world is increasing, expect margins to fall. Also spelling problems for American car companies is the falling yen. Expect that in the future the recent tailwind from this sector to our GDP may begin to fade.
Footnote; I have similar thought as to what is currently driving housing. What make the housing situation more of a problem in the number of "empty" housing units in America.While commentators often talk about the number of units "on the market", they ignore those sitting vacate or in legal limbo. If you have time please read, "What Happens When The Momentum Ends"
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-happens-after-momentum-ends_6.html
Many of the new cars hitting the road are really leases which show up as a sale, and many of them may be motivated because an automobile owner faced with a costly repair may be oping for this alternative verses putting money they do not have into their current ride. This allows someone in a weak financial position, such as those living on disability or student loans, to kick the can down the road while putting themselves into an ego boosting vehicle, one that they cannot in reality afford, or need. I contend that super low artificial interest rates are making much of this possible. If I'm correct, much of the idea of "so called pent up demand" is secondary.
On a day to day basis I deal with many small business owners it is troubling that they are not buying new vehicles for their personal use. I also think that unlike 2007 when auto and truck sales peaked, individuals are making up a larger portion of these sales then before, with businesses experiencing slow growth they are less excited about adding to their fleets. When looking into car sales it is important to take into consideration that more and more of these automobiles are being produced outside of America, this adds to the trade deficit and creates few jobs here, because of this the benefit to our economy is greatly limited and reduced.
This does not necessarily mean sales are reaching some giant bubble and will crash. Vehicles have a limited road life and are always wearing out, but what it may mean is that the upside for more sales to consumers who are not enjoying raising incomes may be waning. This is happening while the ability to produce more cars across the world is increasing, expect margins to fall. Also spelling problems for American car companies is the falling yen. Expect that in the future the recent tailwind from this sector to our GDP may begin to fade.
Footnote; I have similar thought as to what is currently driving housing. What make the housing situation more of a problem in the number of "empty" housing units in America.While commentators often talk about the number of units "on the market", they ignore those sitting vacate or in legal limbo. If you have time please read, "What Happens When The Momentum Ends"
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/what-happens-after-momentum-ends_6.html
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