Advancing Time: Tariffs Are A Way Of Putting A Finger On The Scale

Advancing Time: Tariffs Are A Way Of Putting A Finger On The Scale: Tariffs are a way of putting a finger on the scale, metaphorically speaking. While we are hearing the negatives about how they raise prices ...

Tariffs Are A Way Of Putting A Finger On The Scale

Tariffs are a way of putting a finger on the scale, metaphorically speaking. While we are hearing the negatives about how they raise prices for consumers, they also have the positive effect of making products made in our country more competitive in our local market.

It is wise to remember that companies in many other countries are not burdened by paying workers healthcare costs or in many cases, any type of benefits. This gives them a tremendous advantage even before factoring in wages that are often a fraction of those paid in more developed societies. Also, if you add in subsides they are getting from their government it is game over

This all flows back to the importance of where and what consumers buy matters a great deal when it comes to a nation's economic health. Considering that free trade is not necessarily fair trade, makes using a finger to balance the scale even more necessary. This becomes very clear when looking at China's plan to export millions of low-cost EVs into countries. With our domestic manufacturers unable to compete, without tariffs, they would go out of business.

How can a company in America that is forced to pay high wages, provide expensive medical coverage, and pay for benefits such as paid holidays and vacations even think about competing with those that don't? To make matters worse, countries such as China, that under stand the value of providing workers with jobs, tip the scale even further. They do this by giving companies subsidies in many forms, some less visible than others. 

While people involved in giving investment advice such as  Rick Rule take the stand tariffs are simply a tax around 18 and a half minutes into this video, that view is a bit simplified. What Rule fails to take into account is that fair and free trade are not the same thing. Cheap goods entering a country may help lower costs to consumers but they have a hidden cost.

The claim that tariffs are a tax has some merit. Still, if you agree that there is no such thing as a free lunch, then you should be open to the idea that entitlements need to be paid for in some way or form.  

In short, we need productive jobs, this means jobs that build things and create wealth, not simply keeping people occupied. Without people in America working and paying taxes, outsourcing the production of the goods we use to other countries is not sustainable. Trade deficits bleed a country of its wealth and result in debt.

When a county, like China, subsidies production which lowers cost, they crush the fairness we expect when it comes to trade. Plugging the holes in a trade system that is not as transparent as we tend to think is not easy. An example of this is how China exploits the rules by using Mexico as a way to get goods into America by sidestepping tariffs. 

Tariffs are a way to protect domestic producers and halt jobs from being pilfered by exploiting nations like China. History has many examples of empires being created by those who understand the power of selling far more than you buy. Fortunately for America, China has squandered its opportunity to accumulating great wealth through stupidity and corruption. The evidence of China's missteps are visible in its ghost cities and first-class infrastructure in the middle of nowhere.   

Some economic watchers have warned that increasing the number and amount of tariffs could escalate into a global trade war with massive ramifications. This occurred during the Great Depression, I think the danger of this is overblown. Most rational people understand the best result of trade is to create a win-win situation. Trade imbalances generally fail to accomplish this.

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Fox Grilled Vice President Kamala Harris On Issues

Advancing Time: Fox Grilled Vice President Kamala Harris On Issues:   Vice President Kamala Harris was grilled by Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier on 'Special Report. In just over a 25-minutes, ...

Fox Grilled Vice President Kamala Harris On Issues

 

Vice President Kamala Harris was grilled by Fox News chief political anchor Bret Baier on 'Special Report. In just over a 25-minutes, they discussed immigration, the economy, responding to U.S. adversaries, and more. Prior to the event, there was a great deal of fanfare about Harris's courage to enter the lion's den and face what was predicted to be a tough interview that might well decide the Presidential election. 

Immediately after the interview, the left-tilting media rushed to paint a picture of a triumphant Harris not only surviving the ordeal but dispelling all doubt as to her ability to field tough questions. Also, it seems, that claims Baier was overbearing and rudely interrupted Harris were also put out there to create sympathy for Harris. 

Surprisingly, this important interview was a bit difficult to find on the internet, but when located and watched in its entirety, viewers may come away with a different opinion than what many newsgroups alleged. Many of the almost 20,000 comments below the interview video focused on her not answering the questions, blaming everything on Trump, and telling Baier, "come on, be honest, you know what I mean." Below are a few of those comments:

*She spent 27 minutes blaming a man who hasn't been in office almost 4 for yrs for everything. 

*Always Trump's fault yet she's been VP for 4 years. Deflect, deflect. I LOVED how he pushed her but she still didn't answer his questions. 

*I am not a Trump supporter. With that being said, it is beyond infuriating watching her refuse to take responsibility for ANYTHING.

*The woman who never earned a single vote in a primary is concerned about "democracy." You just can't make this up.

*When your main platform is to criticize the opposition, it simply means you have no platform.   

There is no reason to bore you with more, here is the link to the interview, decide for yourself.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80DaR2CVNNk

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: MISINFORMATION, Using Doublespeak As Censorship

Advancing Time: MISINFORMATION, Using Doublespeak As Censorship:   The word of the day is misinformation. Those using it are often trying to censor speech and opinions, which they call "dangerous,&quo...

MISINFORMATION, Using Doublespeak As Censorship

 

The word of the day is misinformation. Those using it are often trying to censor speech and opinions, which they call "dangerous," in an effort to silence those they oppose. Labeling the views of those you oppose as misinformation that must be squelched is a way of utilizing "doublespeak" as a form of censorship. 

The claim someone is spreading misinformation diminishes the message of your opposition or detractors. It implies they are lying or simply do not know what they are talking about. When put in context, it also reinforces the idea "me good, them bad" even though it requires no proof the accuser is telling the truth.  

Doublespeak is defined as language that deliberately obscures, disguises, distorts, or reverses the meaning of words. This can be in the form of euphemisms, such as "downsizing" for layoffs and "servicing the target" for bombing a location. Doublespeak is primarily used to make the truth sound more palatable. The flaw in what you have read is this is not just about doublespeak but something far more sinister, it is about something bordering on straight-out lies.

The term "doublespeak" flows from concepts in George Orwell's novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four. This term, as well as "Newspeak" are not used in the novel but are descriptions of the misleading type of speech often used to deceive. Screaming that something is misinformation and those spreading it are awful immediately paints them as unreliable or dishonest. At the same time, it is a way of elevating the speaker or writer to a higher plane of honesty.

Declaring a message as misinformation and not directly answering a question are powerful weapons in burying the truth and spreading propaganda. It opens the way for someone to take us down the path where they can spout scripted platitudes and prepared sound bites. Sadly, this has become our world, and it seems, polarization will continue to only make it worse. This is a reason to be wary of those slick talkers gifted in promoting their agenda. 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: The Fed And Its Muddy Path Forward

Advancing Time: The Fed And Its Muddy Path Forward: The Fed's biggest failure is seen in not forcing the government to cut spending and allowing it to pile up massive debt. The Fed's ...

The Fed And Its Muddy Path Forward

Not forcing the government to cut spending and allowing it to pile up massive debt can be seen as the Fed's biggest failure. The existing massive sovereign debt makes the Fed's path forward a matter of great debate. When describing its options, terms such as "painted itself in a corner" are used. This indicates many people understand the Fed is not limited in its options but will face great difficulty in arriving at a good outcome. 

Insanity and madness in the financial system and politics have reached the point where it has become normal. This is evident in many areas of our society. Little noticed was Jill Biden recently running a cabinet meeting like this was a normal part of the First Lady's role in Washington. This comes at the same time assassination attempts on Trump, a Presidential candidate and former President, are seen as no big deal. These dovetail with claims we need an interest rate cut when markets are making new highs. 

With equities, gold, and many other markets hitting all-time highs, the Fed cut rates 50 basis points. How do we reconcile the idea we must rapidly cut rates if the economy is doing so well? 

Circling back to economics, around six minutes into a recent video, Daniel Lacalle, author and professor of economics, mentions the unmentionable, unfunded liabilities. He also makes it clear that America is not alone or positioned as poorly as many other countries. Laccalle then moves into an in-depth discussion on shifts now occurring. Lacalle also covers much of the unfunded liabilities in a much shorter six-minute video that points to the debasement of currencies and more loss of purchasing power in the future. The link to that piece is; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmUAxI_M9oE

Very troubling is his case that we have seen nothing yet. Lacalle claims we are on a course of “monetary destruction” that will get far worse as we move towards the 2030s. This has created a situation where some investors are already moving towards strategies that safeguard their wealth in uncertain times. This includes things such as negative interest rates, bank bail-ins, and the topic of de-dollarisation. Financial repression is not implemented to give us choices but is a tool to shift wealth away from the people and to the government.

As already noted, the Fed is not alone, central banks across the world have miserably failed to contain government expansion and spending. In the minds of many investors, it is odd that the price of Gold going higher at the same time many economic pundits talk about falling into a deflationary recession or worse. If gold and dollars rise together this is of course in relation to all other fiat currencies. Still, there is the problem that as the dollar rises in relationship to other currencies it creates havoc in global markets. 

The fact is, much of the power of central banks flows from being able to inject liquidity into the market during times of turmoil. Their Achilles heal or weakness, which many people have yet to understand, is their limited ability to control the long end of the rate curve. This refers to long-term interest rates, these rates are more dependent on investors' sentiment and views of currency debasement and inflation.

The recent volatility blamed on an unwinding of the Japanese carry trade highlights how the relationship in the value of fiat currencies can pack a wallop. Even as this is being written, we have economists and economic advisers pointing in all directions when it comes to where markets are going. Some are predicting a melt-up, some are declaring "clear skies ahead," and others that the economic wheels are about to fall off the bus. 

When it comes to those controlling the Central Banks making decisions that determine the course we take, it would be wise to remember they do not have total control of the situation. We may find they chose the wrong course, their tricks, or even changing the rules are ineffective. In a past posting, I pointed out that given enough pressure they might, even if it is a bad decision, again open the gates and flood the system with a plentiful supply of cheap money. 

We should marvel at how far Fedspeak, wordy, vague, and ambiguous statements, has gotten us so far. This is amazing considering how broken and dysfunctional the financial system has become. The crux of this post is that we live in unusual times and we should expect conditions around us to be both unpredictable and volatile. Factor in the coming election, the drumbeat of war, and what is happening in the area hit by Hurricane Helene, and it is clear, that we live in interesting times. With this in mind, it is difficult to envision the Fed will be able to continue successfully threading the needle.  

 

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Helene, Government's "Total Fail" During A Major D...

Advancing Time: Helene, Government's "Total Fail" During A Major D...: Yes, it's happening. Following Hurricane Helene, we are witnessing a total failure in the government's response to a major disaster....

Helene, Government's "Total Fail" During A Major Disaster

Yes, it's happening. Following Hurricane Helene, we are witnessing a total failure in the government's response to a major disaster. Reports on NBC, as well as hundreds of others give us some insight as to some of the problems people across western North Carolina are facing. With roads, bridges, water pipes, and electrical lines washed away, FEMA is telling us they don't have the money to "Git er done." It seems the money has gone to aiding immigrants at the border and providing weapons for Ukraine.

During Disaster, Real Help Is Hard To Find

Desperate families are still waiting for word about missing loved ones, days after the flooding disaster in Tennessee, and North Carolina. Expect politicians to fill the slots in the mainstream media to spin the reality on the ground into a tale of "we are getting the job done" The fact is, they are not.  

Fast-talkers, such as Pete Buttigieg, will vigorously paint a picture that the Biden /Harris team in Washington has risen to the task. Sadly, the history of people like Buttigieg, the equivalent of a modern-day snake oil salesman is to twist the truth. As one of Kamala Harris's prime damage control go-to guys, it is his superpower to capably paint a glorious picture, over-promise, and then underperform. 

 Buttigieg will concede that while this is terrible, efforts are continuing to be ramped up and things are under control. He is unlikely to adequately address the issue of why many of those with feet on the ground are being told by government authorities to stand down under penalty of arrest. This includes efforts to seize aid materials flowing into the area under the idea they need to be "inventoried" and redirected to the proper agencies.

In the middle of 2022, an article on AdvancingTime cautioned on how during a major disaster nobody should count on help from the government. It has been a long time since America has had a really good leader. Sadly, the damage these "less than stellar" Presidents cause a lot of problems for society that can linger for decades. With this in mind, it should be noted that bad leaders have a habit of opening Pandora's box for the greater good whenever a disaster strikes. It seems, to some politicians, that the only way the government can help us during a crisis is to focus on taking more control over our lives. 

At that time, some Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) documents released by the George W. Bush Presidential Library spotlighted the powers that modern pres­id­ents "claim they possess" in moments of crisis. Following 9-11, this type of expanding the President's powers could be viewed as a pure power grab. In short, during a national crisis, governments seem more interested in control than coming to the aid of their citizens.

The "presidential emergency action documents" (PEADs), were created during the cold war. Back then, many people feared we might be attacked with nuclear weapons. These documents authorized the president to enact measures such as suspending habeas corpus, detaining "dangerous persons" within the country, censoring news media, and even preventing international travel. 

The desire to extend power dovetails with today's high-profile disasters where the media generates the feeling our government stands ready to rush to our aid in case of a national disaster. Following a tornado or hurricane in the news, we often see FEMA workers spread out and moving from door to door offering help to Americans in need. This reassuring media coverage is misleading. The truth is if you find yourself in a large area of devastation due to a crisis or disaster  the government will prove largely ineffective. 

What is occurring in the areas devastated by Hurricane Helene is proof that when a large Armageddon event does occur people affected quickly find that God helps those who help themselves.

The trend of pandering to victims that we have seen develop over the years may be a result of the battering former President Bush took in opinion polls following Hurricane Katrina. The pictures that the media posted following a slow response in handling Katrina haunt his administration and paint Bush as being insensitive and out of touch with the plight of poor Americans. Unfortunately, claiming the government is responsible for dispensing sorrow and grief does not result in repairing communities and lives torn apart in a disaster.

Over the years in our media-driven world, the President has adopted the role of "consoler in chief." This means they are expected to pour forth sympathy and cast out concern for every American following incidents of destruction or violence. It does not matter if it is an accident, shooting, or some natural disaster, in recent years all this has reached new heights where even in the case of a few deaths it is not uncommon to see the President leaping upon Air Force One and rushing to the scene or calling to express a huge dose of heartfelt sympathy. In this politically correct world, it has even gone so far as to the President being expected to weigh in on minor tragedies that occur throughout the world.

It should be noted that much time is wasted performing these acts that could be better used and focused on solving many of the real and pressing problems that face America. In reality, this pandering is a major disservice to Americans, it fosters the impression the government will be there for you if you ever get into a pickle or jam. While reassuring to many the false illusion of a competent and effective government ready to come to your aid comes at the cost of raising unrealistic expectations. 

I suspect that with the formation of the massive Homeland Security Agency, this may be a case of reassuring the masses that their tax money has not been wasted, while it is. A perfect example would be the government's reaction to the Boston Marathon bombing. The response was overwhelming, but in the end, it was a homeowner checking the tarp on his boat who noticed a spot of blood and not the thousands of law enforcement officers that brought the manhunt to an end. 

No Government Is Ready For This!

No matter the amount of planning, it is silly to think someone can quickly rush to an area they are totally unfamiliar with and institute actions to efficiently solve massive problems. Do not be fooled, in the case of a real disaster the government is generally not very effective, the real help will come from your neighbors, this has been the case throughout history.

It is important to remember, that all disasters are not created equal. There is a huge difference between a tornado and a nuclear bomb going off in a major city. Also, what happens if the power grid fails and electricity is lost over a large area for a long time during inclement weather? In all reality, the Federal government would be relatively ineffective and not much help in a major crisis that covered a large area and affected tens of millions of Americans. 

Anyone who has ever experienced the frustrations caused by a bad storm with power outages and such will tell you most help comes from nearby and government is not the answer. People who adopt the attitude that they are victims following a major disaster and wait for government help to arrive should expect to wait a very long time. Anyone counting on the government is making a huge mistake, simply waiting for help can be the kiss of death. Still, the government should be doing a hell of a lot more to aid people in this disaster than they are. This indicates a total failure on the part of Washington. 

Footnote: Regardless of what you have been told, it is the people of this great nation that made America famous, not the government. Here is the link to a very moving 1974 Harry Chapin song that vividly captures this notion it is titled: "What Made America Famous." 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Pete Buttigieg Is A Modern Day Snake Oil Salesman

Advancing Time: Pete Buttigieg Is A Modern Day Snake Oil Salesman:         Some politicians seem destined to be around for a long time. Washington is a place where even the worst kind of creatures can not on...

Pete Buttigieg Is A Modern Day Snake Oil Salesman

 
 

   

Some politicians seem destined to be around for a long time. Washington is a place where even the worst kind of creatures can not only survive but thrive long after what should be their "expiration or past due" date. While still somewhat new to the scene, Pete Buttigieg is the equivalent of the modern-day snake oil salesman. The history of these guys is to twist the truth, paint a glorious picture, over-promise, and then underperform. 

Pete Buttigieg, the former two-term mayor of South Bend, Indiana, can often be found at the intersection of ambition and disingenuous. Currently. the Democrats are busy putting lipstick on the pig known as Kamala Harris and Buttigieg is being brought forward to convince us she is not a pig.

Because he is so damn good at artfully spinning reality does not mean he has any other redeeming qualities. His flare for this does however make him the go-to man for preparing Vice presidential nominee Tim Walz to debate Ohio Sen. JD Vance. According to a Harris campaign official Buttigieg is standing in for Vance during Walz's preparations. 

On February 2, 2021, Buttigieg was confirmed as President Biden's secretary of transportation, this made him the first openly gay man to serve as a cabinet secretary. It could be argued that he was given this high position in the Biden administration in return for folding his 2020 Presidential bid and throwing his support behind Joe Biden. The fact evident when evaluating his job performance. 

Buttigieg Was Given An Important Job That He Is Not Qualified For

Two terms as mayor of a city with a population of only 103,000 residents and seven years as an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve does not give a person the background to be the secretary of transportation. This massive job is to oversee many aspects of transportation policy by federal agencies within the US Department of Transportation. The decisions flowing from this department are destined to have long-term and profound impacts on the economies and lives of Americans for decades. This includes, are you ready? Overseeing  58,622 employees and deciding where and how much nearly a TRILLION dollars of government money will be spent.

• Highway administration: Via the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the USDOT builds and maintains national highways, funds state highways, and sets safety standards for infrastructure projects.
• Passenger vehicle safety and standards: Via the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the department sets safety standards, emissions standards, and public safety codes.
• Commercial vehicle safety and standards: The department's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) functions much like the NHTSA, only for commercial vehicles.
• Aviation safety and standards: Within the USDOT, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sets rules, regulations, and safety standards related to the nation's air travel.
• Railroad Administration: The DOT operates the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) to regulate standards and safety among the nation's railways.
  
• Maritime Administration: The Department of Transportation governs maritime transportation through two agencies, the Maritime Administration office (MARAD) and the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation (SLSDC), which concerns itself with the Great Lakes.
• Protecting public health: Through the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), the department seeks to prevent the release of harmful pollutants through pipelines.
• Granting funds to states: In addition to financing and building federal transportation projects, the USDOT funds state transportation initiatives via the Federal Transit Administration (FTA).

In short, his fast rise in the political arena has placed him in a position he is inadequate to perform garnering him a fair amount of criticism. His being ambitious is not the problem, his combining it with dishonesty while artfully promoting a dubious agenda and poor policies is the problem. 

Under the title of "Beware of slick talkers." while it escaped the notice of many Americans, our new Transportation Secretary was caught a while back on video pulling one of those stunts that prove politicians untrustworthy. Buttigieg arrived at a meeting on a bicycle to give the impression he rode there when in fact he had been carried most of the way in a gas-guzzling SUV.

Buttigieg's Book Title; "TRUST: America's Best Chance." Underlines His Hypocrisy

Ironically the book authored by Buttigieg and published in 2006 is titled; "TRUST: America's Best Chance." This underlines the hypocrisy and importance of knowing that America's new Transportation Secretary is a lying turd, or if you prefer a less harsh way of saying this, a modern snake oil salesman. Part of Buttigieg's "stick" is to have people refer to him as Mayor Pete or Secretary Pete to make himself appear more accessible and more like them.

For a clear picture of just how well this political creature has carved his way into power, watch this piece where Pete Buttigieg talks to Jon Stewart about why he goes on Fox News; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jli0_oKMG-0  It is clear Stewart's audience is giddy for Pete and the comments under the video confirm this "love fest," things such as ;

When Pete Buttigieg was running for POTUS in 2020, I worked on several of his rallies in Charleston SC. I saw him on the stump and "backstage." He is very articulate, well-read, smart as a whip, and firmly in control of his emotions. I would vote for Pete Buttigieg for ANYTHING in a skinny second!

Every time hear Pete Buttigieg speak I feel more hopeful for the USA.

 As a British person, I'd never heard him speak before. Comes across as super articulate, measured, dignified, and capable. Imagine the future with someone like him in higher office.

I watch everything Pete is on. Can't wait until he becomes POTUS.

All this puts Buttigieg in the role of damage control and major Harris cheerleader. Also, it is likely we will be seeing a lot more of Pete in the coming months and years. In a video put out on July 28th Buttigieg goes down the path of calling and describing JD Vance strange and weird. If you haven't gotten the memo, declaring conservatives and their ideology as weird is the democratic code weird. Politics should be joyful Democrats declare in this video as they deliver their message with a thick blanket of fear-mongering and how Trump will rob Americans of their freedom. I end this post with the simple warning, "Beware of slick talkers." When combined with modern media they are always a clear and present danger.

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Fed's Interest Rate Cuts May Not Bring Strong Economy

Advancing Time: Fed's Interest Rate Cuts May Not Bring Strong Economy: As the Fed begins to cut interest rates, it is important to consider the possibility that lower rates will not produce a stronger economy. W...

Fed's Interest Rate Cuts May Not Bring Strong Economy

As the Fed begins to cut interest rates, it is important to consider the possibility that lower rates will not produce a stronger economy. We only need to look at Japan to see the proof an economy is about far more than just interest rates. Feeding into this is the Fed's limited ability to directly determine rates at the long end of the curve.

Lower rates have almost been guaranteed and promised, however, we should never forget that liquidity is far more important. This is why a past article here on AdvancingTime touted the idea more focus should be placed on liquidity rather than interest rates. When you need money, whether the amount is small or large, not being able to get it can lead to a life-changing or grave outcome. Yes, it is possible rates can fall at the same time credit tightens. This can result in dire consequences.

Contagion is a word used to describe how a disease is passed from one individual to another. It is also used to explain how problems in one area of the economy tend to spill over into other sectors of the economy and markets. When it does it can occur quickly and be devastating to the financial system. This is why it would be wise to remember that if you have good credit you will always be able to get a loan a myth.

People learn in a credit crunch that liquidity is far more important than interest rates. Many years of an easy credit environment have numbed people to the reality that credit is not a guaranteed right. This is a reality that can hit us like a slap in the face. 

Part of what we will see in the coming months could be simply an adjustment in the flow of capital to those who want it most or can afford it. Much of what may develop is a lack of willingness to lend based on the possibility the risk of not being repaid increases in a difficult economy. This has the potential to create a self-feeding loop in a credit-tightening cycle. Halting such a damaging loop can come down to the Fed's questionable ability to get banks to lend during adverse conditions.

The notion you stand a snowball's chance in hell of getting a loan in an environment of credit tightening has yet to dawn on many people. The existence of so-called "loan sharks" underlines the idea that if someone is desperate to borrow money they will often put themselves in danger to do so. Loan sharks, which generally operate outside the law, offer loans at extremely high interest rates and have strict terms of collection if the loan is not repaid. 

Most people have not experienced cycles of severe credit tightening and may have difficulty imagining such a scenario. This is partially due to what may be considered "memory bias" or "recency bias." This can result in confusion as new situations arise. Memories tend to be clouded by people incorrectly believing that recent events will likely occur again. This tendency obscures the probability the future may be quite different from the past and leads people to make poor decisions based on the recent past.

Like many businesses, the banking sector has changed over the years. The banking industry is far different than it was a few decades ago. As a financial institution, banks are licensed to accept deposits and make loans. Not only do banks protect our money, they lend out this money to create profits. But they also perform a lot of other financial services. That said, banks are not shy about placing upon customers a lot of fees and other charges.

• The three main business segments for a bank are retail banking, wholesale banking, and wealth management.
• Retail banking or personal banking involves deposits, mortgages, loans, and credit cards.
• Wholesale banking is related to sales and trading and mergers and acquisitions.
• Wealth management generates revenue through retail brokerage services and asset management.

The simple and ugly truth is banks are not "good neighbors" there to serve and be concerned about the community. Banks do not make much money on small loans at low-interest rates. The cost of making these loans far outweighs the income flowing from them even before factoring in the risk of default. This is why most small businesses must turn to other sources in order to find financing and a lot of these are loans "hidden off the balance sheet" at much higher rates. When push comes to shove, the banks will be fast to throw you under the bus. Adding insult to injury, if you have put assets up with them as collateral, they may be inclined to seize them if doing so plays to their advantage.

Interest Rates Have Fallen Over The Decades

 

This swings back to the title of this piece, interest rates are still very low compared to those we experienced during the 80s and 90s. To someone in need of a loan even a few full points of interest is often not as big a deal as the availability of credit. When credit windows slam closed people get scared and shadow banking or unregulated lending soars.

Liquidity is the lifeblood of commerce. The massive growth in the financial sector versus Main Street, the GDP, and the real economy has made debt a major concern. Credit markets will be coming under a lot of pressure as a great deal of this debt coming due. Adding to the problem is that much of it is short-term debt that must be rolled over or extended. It will be interesting how this plays out in a "risk off" environment. It is just one of the factors helping to determine where investors park their wealth and in what form.

Lately, the Fed has been boxed in by the hyper-reaction of investors to anything it does. It needs to get investors to refocus on profits, margins, and risk. The combination of cheap money, and too much of it, has fueled speculation and blown the lid off markets in recent years. It seems that greed has overshadowed the degree a tightening in credit standards can impact the economy. This is partially due to either the Fed's or the government's willingness to generate stimulus that promotes the wealth effect.

The growth generated from low-interest rates and easy credit has some drawbacks. This takes us to the issue of where the stimulus is coming from. Consider that stimulating the economy through monetary policy and stimulus from fiscal spending have different long-term implications for inflation. It also impacts the economy in a big way, especially when it is not geared towards increasing productivity.

This has fostered an environment where the stock market has been less efficient in discovering the true value of companies. While recessions halt inflation the issue is just how much irreparable damage it will inflict on Main Street and society as the "lag effect" hits us in the face. The stock market is not cheap, earnings will most likely fall takeing stock prices with them. In response, expect tapped-out consumers to cut back on spending, unemployment to rise, and a lot of small businesses to fail. 

A lack of liquidity can be poisonous. When you need money, whether the amount is small or large, not being able to get it can lead to a life-changing or grave outcome. It is important to point out that housing values are a far bigger issue for most Americans than stocks. Still, these markets do influence each other. Dealing with a "bubble economy" is always a problem and results in investors and people, in general, to buy high and sell low, often with devastating consequences.

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: A Presidential Running Mate, Does It Matter?

Advancing Time: A Presidential Running Mate, Does It Matter?: While many people don't think it matters who a presidential candidate chooses as a running mate, it kinda does. This becomes even more ...

A Presidential Running Mate, Does It Matter?

While many people don't think it matters who a presidential candidate chooses as a running mate, it kinda does. This becomes even more important if they are up in age or in bad health. After witnessing the rapid decline of Joe Biden, the importance of who will step into the Oval Office if the need arises should be elevated. 

Over the years, most Presidential candidates have selected running mates that few Americans would be comfortable proclaiming as our President. The criteria for a running mate varies, some candidates select someone from an area they need to win, others to heal a wound in their party,  and some to fill another niche they think needs to be filled. 

The most important factor here is what it says about the leader of the ticket's values and judgment. The speculation is that Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz because she loved his governing record in Minnesota. Also, his biography and record of winning tough races resonated with her. Most of all, she just really liked him. Still, that does not mean he is a good choice.

It could be argued that of the four candidates on the Presidential / Vice-President ballot, Vance is the sharpest of the four and the most fit to serve. This doesn't mean you agree with JD Vance. It translates into the fact he probably has a more accurate picture of reality and greater knowledge of the issues facing America than the others. 

You don't have to be a policy or political wonk to understand the ramifications flowing from promoting an empty suit into the role of President.  The sudden ascension of Kamala Harris to the Democratic presidential nominee is a wakeup call to the issue that running mates matter. CNN recently put out an article comparing the Vice President to a backup quarterback and pointing out they need to be ready for the Oval Office if the situation arises. 

When it comes to Presidential candidates and their running mates, the least the voters can expect is a clear picture of the agenda they wish to pursue. Candidates need to give us policies defining where they will take the nation. Platitudes and clever sound bites fall far short of this.         

(A platitude is a statement that is seen as trite, meaningless, or prosaic, aimed at quelling social, emotional, or cognitive unease. For example, "America needs a leader who will build us up rather than tear us down.")

Prior to Vance being selected by Trump few Americans knew his name or anything about him. Whether you like him or not, it only takes a few minutes of listening to Vance to realize he is far more articulate and sharp than Trump, Harris, or Waltz. Few people have the experience to step into the role of President, but being smart and able to clearly voice and support your ideas has a great deal of merit.

Footnote: This link shows every running mate chosen since WWII ---- consider it a "memory refresher" of some rather forgettable charterers.  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-presidential-candidates-running-mate-since-wwii/  

(Republishing this article is permitted with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: A Very Ugly Election Season Has Descended Upon Us!

Advancing Time: A Very Ugly Election Season Has Descended Upon Us!: The very ugly election season has descended upon us. Undeniably, polarization is the word of the day. For many Americans, this is not a rus...

A Very Ugly Election Season Has Descended Upon Us!

The very ugly election season has descended upon us. Undeniably, polarization is the word of the day. For many Americans, this is not a rush to pick the best President but to vote for the least worst. This has filled the internet with cheap parody songs attacking Trump or Harris depending on the entertainer's values. Examples of these parodies can be found at the bottom of this post. This post. however, is not about parodies or music. 

The reality is that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. A big deal is being made as a slew of "Never Trumpers" endorse Harris. At the same time, even more telling is that Robert F Kennedy Jr has suspending his run for the US presidency and announced his  endorsement of Donald Trump. Of course, Harris supporters have tried to spin this as "sour milk" rather than acknowledge the strong opposition Kennedy held to the current Biden-Harris agenda. 

 For years, Kennedy repeatedly condemned Trump, referring to him as a “bully,” who appealed to “bigotry,” “hatred,” “xenophobia” and “prejudice.” Among the chief attacks Kennedy has leveled at Trump through the 2024 campaign is to accuse him of corruption for turning his administration over to corporate lobbyists and special interests and his failure to “drain the swamp.” 

It must be noted, Kennedy and Trump do share similar isolationist views on US foreign policy, government censorship, and the need to address chronic disease in America. Kennedy has, in the past, called Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election appalling and a threat to democracy. He has also argued President Joe Biden has been a bigger threat. He blames Biden for censoring political speech using as an example his Instagram account being banned in 2021 over vaccine misinformation. 

On another note, one of the most open, honest, lucid, truthful, and issue-oriented political discussions I have seen in the modern age. took place in a riveting episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu. There, Nicole Shanahan, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s running mate in his 2024 independent presidential campaign, dissected the legacy of Trump's first term and many other topics. Nicole openly shares her vision for government accountability, emphasizing the role of technology in enhancing transparency and productivity. It is a shame how few people will see it. It makes clear the issue of there being a monopoly on the scale of information distribution is perhaps the most important monopoly of them all.

A huge problem looms in the fact neither of America's Presidential candidates is interested in cutting the national debt and slowing our descent.  Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks, is not impressed. He takes the position both Presidential candidates will only make our debt problem worse. 

Over the last few years, we have seen people working less and more people shifting towards taking some type of public support. This has been occurring at a time when productivity has not increased, Adding to America's economic woes is that consumers continue to dig themselves deeper into debt. To be honest, it is difficult to find a Politician anywhere who is advocating an economic path that deals with the problems ahead. They are instead paving the way toward stagflation or inflation.

It appears that Democrats don't get it. Rather than aligning themselves with the American worker, they have formed a coalition made up of the poor, the deep state, and the globalist elites. All these groups have one thing in common, and that is they are willing to sacrifice our future for more money and power today. This is evident in a number of policies rubber-stamped by this coalition that constantly favor big businesses such as Amazon over the far smaller companies that made America famous. 

Giving people money to stay at home and order online is devastating to the brick-and-mortar stores that line the streets of our communities. These are the companies that pay taxes and provide jobs for our friends and families. The major labor shortage and a fall in productivity will have long-lasting implications in the form of future stagflation. 

Today, many smaller businesses struggling under the expensive of ever-changing mandates being placed upon them by those in power.  Already, statistics show that 1-in-4 Americans primarily live on government support. The idea of simply giving these people more money in the hope it will boost consumption is unsustainable because the numbers don't work.

Not only is Biden mentally impaired, but he is a liar and a crook that belongs in jail for selling political favors, and so does much of his family. The idea Democratic voters should swarm to support Harris just because she is not Biden is a bit sick, but what else does she have going for her?  This election highlights the massive flaws in America's election system which was designed over two hundred years ago. A "fair update" is in order, but who would be able to design such a thing in the current political environment? 

It is difficult to say how this election will play out. Most Americans are opposed to corruption, and think weaponizing the Department of Justice to attack political opponents is wrong. Expect high drama. Expect a lot of allegations of this or that party stealing the election. Do not be surprised if America comes across as a banana republic. The only guarantee I will give is that when all is said and done, a huge part of our population will not be happy. 

 

    The first three examples go after Harris,  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIN5G_2e6h4

---  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIN5G_2e6h4

--- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIN5G_2e6h4

   The below parodies hit on Trump ---  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIN5G_2e6h4

--- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIN5G_2e6h4

--- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIN5G_2e6h4

 (Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

 

Advancing Time: Slowing Economy In America To Result In Global Dis...

Advancing Time: Slowing Economy In America To Result In Global Dis...: America remains the world's largest economy and a slowdown here is likely to spread grief across the globe. It is amazing so many people...

Slowing Economy In America To Result In Global Distress

America remains the world's largest economy and a slowdown here is likely to spread grief across the globe. It is amazing so many people simply don't understand the dire implications America's slowing economy will have on the world. Considering much of the global economy is dependent on exports to the US, the world should expect more problems ahead. These problems will not only be economic but take a toll on society across the world.

Other countries manufacture the goods Americans buy which makes America a key component in their economies. Without the American consumer, factories across the world will see orders slow. Any such slowing in orders reduces the need for raw goods from developing nations in both South America and Africa. This causes a lot of stress on their economies.

Since World War II, America has been the economic locomotive or engine pulling the economy forward. As we look back to the time following the 2008 financial crisis, we find China sidestepped the major slowdown by over-stimulating its economy. This resulted in a great deal of malinvestment. Currently, China is pumping money into its economy however, the law of diminishing return has taken hold.  

Today any claims China was taking over the role of the world's economic engine have been tarnished by the recent revelations its economy is in shambles. Much of China's economy has been an over-hyped illusion. Its economy has proven to be more of a paper tiger built on a foundation of ghost cities, more factories than it needs, debt, and wasteful overbuilding.

In recent years, the EU has mistakenly shifted towards the East hoping China would act as a spark and revitalize growth. Instead, it has seen its trade deficit with China only grow larger. Some German observers are now saying the economy has reached crisis proportions and the reason is due to what the US economy's weakness is doing to the rest of the world. Rather than supporting a recovery, the situation in Germany, Europe's largest economy has turned ever more grim due to the growing negatives flowing out of America.

It is difficult to underestimate the role of the American consumer in the overall scheme of things and we have the trade deficit to prove it. This highlights the flaw in a system based on people buying stuff they often really don't need. What is deemed as demand tends to be a squishy area made up of waste and poor judgment. This is the first place consumers cut their spending.

Not Much Has Changed Over The Years - America Is Addicted To Imported Goods

The fact is that America with its massive trade deficit is carrying much of the world on its shoulders. This includes not only China and Mexico but countries such as Japan, Germany, South Korea, and even Germany. These countries are sucking the wealth right out of us.

Sadly, for those living off exporting to America, this spells trouble. When the US consumer falls into a state of protracted economic funk their priorities will take a hit. In times of financial duress expect American consumers to turn towards keeping a roof over their heads, food, and basic transportation rather than buying much of the junk we have been importing.

In a recent video, Robert Kiyosaki talks about what he sees as a looming global economic downturn. Best known for his book "Rich Dad Poor Dad" Kiyosaki's unique approach to personal finance and wealth-building has earned him a loyal following. While I believe in many of his views, I feel that Kivosaki often fails to point out that other fiat currencies are far worse than the dollar. Currencies are where many people store much of their wealth and even if they are debased and lose much of their value this is likely to continue. This is because currencies act as a primary medium of exchange in the modern world. 

Short of America suffering a massive military defeat, it is difficult to see any rival ripping away the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency anytime soon. As American consumers cut their spending, the combination of more wasteful government spending, more debasing of currencies, and a slowing of global economies has the potential to usher in a major "inflationary" global slowdown. While the East and West may be decoupling, the world has not decoupled from the American consumer.

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into ...

Advancing Time: Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into ...: The war in Ukraine has expanded into Russia. This expansion highlights an unlimited amount of propaganda is being dumped upon us. Most of th...

Revisiting "War In Ukraine And Its Expansion Into Russia"

The war in Ukraine has expanded into Russia. This expansion highlights an unlimited amount of propaganda is being dumped upon us. Most of the media, with or without an agenda, have presented us with a rather one-sided view of what is occurring on the ground. Some claim Putin is on his last leg and about to crumble, others take the stand a desperate Ukraine's venture into Kursk is a suicide mission. Anyway you look at the situation "over there," most people would argue peace would be a better option.

 

From the get-go, I have taken the stand and warned pushing Putin into such a war was a bad idea in that a war in his backyard gave Russia a huge home-field advantage. To make matters worse, this war was and is totally unnecessary. As this has unfolded, I feel, the views of Colonel Douglas Macgregor probably give us a good picture of what is occurring on the ground. His take on, the mismatch of forces, the motivation, and the strategy seem to closely match reality.

In this latest update from the Kursk battlefield, Colonel Macgregor offered a detailed analysis of Russia's overwhelming counterattacks and Ukraine's staggering losses. As the 'Kursk Curse' unfolds as Russian forces are leveraging superior artillery and air power to dismantle Ukraine's offensive strategies. From the failed advances in Komarovka to the destruction of Ukrainian armored divisions, the battlefield remains a pivotal front in the ongoing conflict. It appears that Russia's elite units, like the Akhmat group, continue to sabotage and counter Ukraine's deep penetration raids. 

This is leading to record-breaking casualties. Macgregor explains the brutal reality and devastating impact of Russia’s precision strikes and how the incursion into Kursk may enraged and galvanized the Russian people behind Putin. Rather than pressuring Putin to end the madness, Macgregor holds the view that more than a few Russians think Russia has not been aggressive enough and should ramp up its efforts to crush Ukraine. 

Bubbling up through the forces that bring us to war is the stupid and shameful myth that it is good for the economy. While war does line the pockets of a few industrialists and businessmen the cost is great and outweighs the benefits. Warfare often fails to be either easy, swift, or true. For proof, we need only look at the millions of people displaced and forced to flee war-torn areas, these refugees, and the countries they flee to, often pay the price for the billions of dollars of military hardware produced at a profit and pumped into countries across the world. 

 

Those of you who have accepted, hook, line, and sinker, the view Putin is a thug and a bully should remember beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Please consider that Putin resurrected the crumbling Russian empire into a nation-state with coherence and purpose. He is credited with halting the theft of his country’s wealth by the plutocracy and restoring Russia's military strength. Putin's biggest sin may have been that with blunt rhetoric he refused to accept for Russia a subservient role in an American-run world led by foreign politicians and business leaders.

 

It does not stand as a monument of our virtue that many Western leaders have stirred the pot of war and added to world strife. Many of the same so-called "warmongers" are hellbent on turning Ukraine into a major war whether the countries involved want it or not. History shows what has become known as "proxy wars" create profits for companies manufacturing weapons. The cost, of course, is then pawned off on taxpayers and a public preoccupied with personal concerns. In this case, we should be concerned that these fools are playing with fire. This has little to do with Russia taking over the world or Ukraine's national sovereignty. It is about money, energy, and power.

Somewhere in the minds of rational people should reside the idea that warfare has proven to be a pathetic option to bring about positive change, it may change things, but to what degree and for how long. The loss of life of an individual is often insignificant except to their loved ones. One of the harsh realities of modern war is that it has become a less personal way to die.  Beyond that ugly reality is the fact war carries with it many hidden costs. At this point, we can only pray that the warmongers among us do not turn this into World War III. 

 

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)

Advancing Time: A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Product...

Advancing Time: A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Product...: America made a major mistake pushing higher wages instead of pushing productivity. This started years ago as a solution to growing inequali...

A Mistake, Pushing Higher Wages Instead Of Productivity

America made a major mistake pushing higher wages instead of pushing productivity. This started years ago as a solution to growing inequality. Increased productivity tends to lower the price of goods and inflation. It could be argued that higher wages are a chief contributor in causing America to become less competitive in the global market, productivity matters. 

The trade deficit has exploded and much of the reason is based on other countries being able to produce goods at far lower cost. High wages have only widened the advantage low-income countries have over America in producing less expensive goods. Of course, it is not the only factor, a slew of regulations and things such as high healthcare costs also feed into this. 

Over the last several decades this has resulted in a hollowing out of America's middle-class as companies shifted production overseas. Years ago Trump cut the tax on large companies in an effort to bring jobs back to America. A big reason this was not as successful as we hoped is that over-regulation and healthcare costs in America trump an advantage the tax cut provided.

America's trade deficit has been widening, again. The U.S. international trade deficit widened 0.8% in May to $75.1 billion. This is the largest deficit since October 2022. The numbers from the last several years highlight that for all the commotion it created, the trade war with China has failed to bring down the trade deficit.

As for productivity, for years businesses shouted they were seeing huge gains in productivity but the truth is that productivity can be difficult to measure. Sagging productivity is tied directly to the idea we may be looking at stagflation. Today supply chain disruptions and other problems continue to take a bite out of productivity, 

New systems touted as gains, can carry with them a lot of negatives. With the onslaught of computers and word processing the garbage in garbage out pipeline has exploded. This has resulted in a simple search for information dropping the person searching into a loop that circles back upon itself and rendering little in the way of helpful information. 

An example of more is not always better is evident in the way government is constantly growing. It is not uncommon for laws and bills flowing from Washington to run thousands of pages in length. Ironically, while the old way of typing and copying was inefficient compared to modern methods, it did limit the number of pages a person could create. 

Truth be told, many of us have wasted a full day or more on a machine that is malfunctioning or refuses to do our bidding. The idea we save time by not fixing something discounts the cost and waste created when we are forced to throw away an item that still or should have a great deal of useful value. Sometimes I have to wonder whether people will ever look up from their cell phones long enough to realize a lot of things are not working and complicated is not always better.

Another issue acting as a double-edged sword on productivity is the "Amazon business model." The inefficiency of shipping products directly to consumers is a subject raised here on AdvancingTime in a recent post. This inefficiency was hammered home on December 26th and 27th on NBC news. While the news did not blame Amazon directly it attacked the wasteful process of selling online. 

The NBC piece looked strongly at how new products purchased online were often returned and at the cost to a business for taking these items back. It reported it cost $33 to take back an item sold for $50 and how this is crushing profit margins. NBC went on to detail how many of these items end up in landfills and were never used. Waste may add to America's GDP but should be considered a huge negative to the American economy.

As a side note, it should be mentioned that many of these items ending up in landfills unused were manufactured in China. How ironic, the fact we buy so much from China rather than making more goods at home is one of the reasons for the current supply chain debacle. There is a slang expression we sometimes hear people say, "You can't make this shit up." This idiom is used to describe a situation, event, or action that is or seems especially bizarre, surreal, or hard to believe.

To put this in context, Americans send their wealth overseas to buy the goods our system is designed to throw away. It is a sad situation that we live in a world where our political leaders cheer waste since it adds to the GDP. Simply put, raising wages without a corresponding rise in productivity hurts more than it helps.

 

Footnote; Information from the following articles fed into this post.

1.  https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/list-of-supply-chain-shortages-f9adc4e41967
2.  https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/12/amazon-predatory-monster-unleashed-upon.html
3. https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-dreadful-c-word-conserve.html
   

  

(Republishing of this article welcomed with reference to Bruce Wilds/AdvancingTime Blog)