Monday, January 1, 2018

Planning A Sustainable Future For Mankind Is Critical

On occasion, it is good to take a few moments to reflect on where we are, and where we are going. Over the last few months the threat of nuclear war has increased and more frightening is the acceptance of such an event as a way of solving growing problems. Our days, however, all filled with many other issues that will eventually determine not only our fate but the fate of mankind as well. Only to the most self-centered individuals with no children, family or friends can the issue of creating a sustainable future not be an issue of importance. In many ways, it should be considered "job one" in our rapidly changing world, yet it is almost always put on the back burner and ignored because of both political and economic ramifications.

Sustainability Is Critical To Our Future
Sustainability means planning our future in a way that we do not set ourselves up to crash and burn at some future date. Long-term planning has not been something politicians excel at or are even good at. Our system is geared at getting politicians re-elected and fulfilling the most pressing needs of today.  Things like profit, greed, and quenching our unrelenting desire for growth is placed in front of longer term issues and needs. Mapping out a logical and sustainable long-term plan requires delving into some rather hefty philosophical questions like what brings real happiness. We would have to think about what kind of society and world future generations might want to live in. We would have to recognize the role of the human animal in the overall scheme of things.

As the population has soared during the last two hundred years man has spread out and constructed infrastructure across the planet to support this growth using more natural resources than at any time in history. Already more is needed and the repairs required to maintain what we have built will be staggering. It appears we lack the courage to even discuss these issues in any real way. Do not expect to be guided by politicians, the super wealthy or most business leaders. Few people are willing to come out and say the recently adopted modern model of life based on lifestyles developed in America and western society are unsustainable. The few that mutter these words are often scorned. This could all be considered part of a giant conspiracy of silence but is more likely a head in the sand act of denial, but denial that will lead to our demise.

Jeremy Grantham’s investment firm GMO manages about $110 billion in assets. He also backs the Grantham Institute of Climate Change at London’s Imperial College. He says population growth is a huge “threat to the long-term viability of our species when we reach a population level of 10 billion” because it is “impossible to feed the 10 billion people.” Billionaire Bill Gates says we should cap global population at 8.3 billion at the same time his vaccine and other programs are extending life expectancy. Columbia University’s Earth Institute Director Jeff Sachs says even 5 billion is unsustainable. To stop adding more people our population is tough enough. But how do we eliminate two billion from today’s seven billion total? Voluntary?

We should remember that for most of his 60,000 years on earth man has been a minor consumer of the earth’s stores of energy. With the discovery of fire, man began to increase his demands and draw on the short-term energy stores that had been accumulated over scores of years or even centuries by woody plants.  Only in the last hundred years with the invention of the internal combustion engine and a huge increase in population has man begun to tap the planet's long-term energy supplies of oil and natural gas at an alarming rate. In merely a blink of an eye, we have shaped a world where our lifestyles revolve around and are dependent on oil and the consumption of energy from fossil fuels.

War Has Turned Mosul Into Rubble
As the world continues to develop the importance of design and quality are factors that cannot be stressed enough. An issue we are failing to address is that as the world's population soars we cannot afford the wasteful luxury of constructing buildings that grow obsolete or must be replaced every few decades, buildings should last for centuries. We also cannot afford to bomb and lay waste to whole cities killing and destroying what so many have worked so hard to create. How we use our new skills and the choices we make will determine if mankind blankets the world with Las Vegas style resorts on every corner, fills the skies with glass towers, or constructs homes and shelters suitable for our fellow man.

It concerns me that in developing countries such as China and India that have huge populations of have-nots we are seeing developers follow the same flawed pattern of growth that was pioneered in America. The creation of huge wealth in China has manifested itself in conspicuous consumption as people rush to show they are successful. Poor planning has not promoted a lifestyle of efficiency and social interaction but has encouraged the private automobile with its massive support system of highways and the construction of more high-rise towers. The ability of the planet to sustain our recent lifestyle that is too new to have stood the test of time is very questionable.

“One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse,” warns Jared Diamond, environmental anthropologist and author of the classic “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.” Many “civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Remember this is totally entwined with the economy and everyday life. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth, and power.” Can it be stopped? Before it’s too late? Don’t bet on it. Watching how those in Washington and other capitals avoid dealing with the many real problems we face is not encouraging.


 Footnote; The above article is not an endorsement of some kind of "carbon tax" as much as it is a call for better planning and less waste. This post dovetails with many of my recent writings, for more I might suggest reading the article below. Other related articles may be found in my blog archive, thanks for reading, your comments are encouraged.
           http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/12/10-worst-problems-facing-world-going.html
          

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