Sunday, July 12, 2020

Covid-19's "Inconsistent Nature" Confuses Us All

As time goes by covid-19 has proven not to be the hammer or tsunami we feared. It has not taken the large number of lives many experts predicted but it has brought the economy to its knees. It now seems covid-19 is just a deadly bug that will probably with us for some time. Not only has it spread slower than we were told it would but the fatality rate is far lower than many "experts" predicted. Still, this inconsistent beast holds society confused and paralyzed with fear. The article below is an effort to give this subject some context and frame of reference. 

Covid-19 Has Confused Us All
Over time answers have begun to emerge as to the extent covid-19 will have to impact our lives in coming years, however, the truth is being diluted and held hostage by politics. Because I live in a rather conservative area my views may be a bit skewed when it comes to how other Americans see the government's role in handling the pandemic.

Interestingly, it is mainstream media that is largely responsible for banging the drums of fear by speculating the worst is yet to come. Mainstream media appears to be going out of its way to weaponize covid-19 it an effort to demonize Trump and paint his administration as a failure. One theory is that democrats and other big-spending politicians are using all the fear-mongering as a way to  push a massive stimulus package through with little resistance. This is a very troubling development for those of us that expect our government to be at least somewhat responsible and to consider how its actions will impact society.

Early on I pointed out the "need to know more and collect real information" was crucial to creating a plan that would minimize the damage covid-19 posed. That need still exists. When the virus first appeared, the projection below was written based on the lower edge of what the experts were touting as expected percentages of infection. No wonder people became fearful.

         We are all like frogs in a pot of water and the water temperature is slowly rising.
         If predictions are correct, I see a giant catastrophe ahead. In a city of 300 hundred 
         thousand people, let's do some numbers. They est. 40% to 80% of people may get 
         this bug. Of those American health officials say as many as 20% may need to be
         hospitalized, some for months.
         Going with a 50% catch rate, roughly 150,000 people will get infected in my area.
         With only a 10% hospitalization rate it would come to 15,000
         We sure don't have the beds in my area to handle such a surge. Note, this is 5% of 
         the population.
         In this case, It's not just about how many people may die but the fact that simply 
         caring for so many very sick people creates a massive problem!

While it is true we should error to the side of caution when dealing with a new pandemic, the problem is that as this unfolded, not only can we not trust the numbers because of fraud and inconsistent testing from one area to another but when important facts or a shred of truth does emerge it is rapidly mucked up when dropped into this data. Adding to the confusion and fear-mongering flowing from the mainstream media is the fact frustrated Americans confronted with a resurgence of the scourge are facing long lines at testing sites in the summer heat or are getting turned away. Some people are having to wait before receiving a diagnosis. Not only are some test sites running out of kits, but labs are also reporting shortages of materials and workers to process the swabs.

The total failure of Governments across the world to lead us through this mess confirms a bleak future for mankind going forward. One critic of  how this has been handled is Ron Paul, a physician that served as the U.S. Representative for Texas's 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977 and again from 1979 to 1985 recently wrote an article in which he questioned whether the covid-19 spike in Texas was fake news. He contends Texas Governor Greg Abbott's executive order mandating the wearing of face masks both indoors or outdoors across the state is a violation of the civil liberties of all Texans.

Will History View Fauci As A Hero Or Goat?
Paul argues the executive order is based on inaccurate information about a “rise” in Covid cases due to the Texas State Department of Health Services changing the definition of what constitutes a “Covid case” to a ridiculous level. Paul writes, In a Commissioners Court hearing for Collin County on May 18th, it was revealed that while previously the determination of a Covid “case” was a confirmed test result, the definition was suddenly changed to count “probable” cases as “cases.” This discounts the fact that many people will already carry some natural immunity to covid-19 making them far less likely to catch it.

The policy adopted by Sweden differs greatly from that of other countries. The Swedes have settled on a more traditionalist approach that avoided a full-scale lock-down and has allowed people to maintain their personal freedom even amid this global pandemic. Sweden pursued a course they felt was sustainable and would save as many lives as possible in the long run. While Sweden’s fatality rate is higher than some and lower than others. (Sweden has 543 deaths per million this translates into roughly 1 death in every 2,000 people.) As in other countries, the vast majority of Swedish fatalities have been among people 70 years and older with underlying health conditions.

By settling on a policy, that keeps the economy running, preserves an atmosphere of normality, and exposes its young, low-risk people to the infection, Sweden is moving its population closer towards the ultimate goal of achieving “herd immunity.” Some people think Sweden is very close to reaching the point where the majority of people have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future. This would ensure that future outbreaks will be less disruptive and less lethal. It must be noted that even The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) is still being debated.

The reason everyone was so scared about covid-19 originally was because after the lock-down in China it was hyped as a completely new deadly virus with no known cure or natural protection. That has turned out to be false but has been promoted by Fauci and many others. This has resulted in vast destruction to the US economy, an explosion in our national debt, an unprecedented spike in unemployment, and the destruction of tens of millions of small businesses. As we look back most people will realize the error we have made by shutting down a $21 trillion economy and ordering 340 million people into quarantine because a small number of people may die. 

All this means is the subject of a "covid future" has a lot of parts that we have yet to face. Successfully balancing the damage to the economy and the mess it makes of our lives with health issues is a difficult act. It includes the complications, health issues, and other negative outcomes arising from covid and all the ways that it can affect you even if it doesn’t actually kill you. It includes whether schools should be reopened, whether it is safe to fly, and if governments are abusing our rights when ordering people about claiming it is for the greater good. Expect the confusion to continue but rest assured that through all this, those making the rules and at the top of the food chain will be sure to remain unscathed.


  1. Replies
    1. Sorry Rod, but your comment got lost somewhere and this is all I got.

  2. So you are going to lie about Herd immunity when even the Swedes admitted it was a failure?

    1. I have no real dog in this hunt and lying is not my thing. Regardless of what you may think, many people and even "some" so-called experts disagree with you when it comes to Sweden's effort being a failure.
      It seems you did not bother to check out the link embedded in my article. Here it is again!

  3. I know people wanted very much for Sweden's strategy to work, but it hasn't worked very well. First of all, the strategy required social distancing, so the economy has definitely suffered anyway. Second, they seriously doubt they are achieving herd immunity, among other things, because now it's plain that immunity for the coronavirus doesn't last long. People have been catching it again after three or four months.

    The UK was seriously considering going for the same strategy, and it was changed at the last minute, after better data on the mortality rate, rate of spread, and re-infections got through to the epidemiologists, that made clear the strategy was probably unworkable.

  4. The diamond princess was a isolated case study of the virus. It appears fifty percent have natural immunity so when a community reaches fifteen to eighteen percent infection cases level then decline. This has happened in New york and New jersey ect... and is stating to flatline in arizona as they have reached fifteen percent infection. This is hopeful news if proven true. we will know in two weeks or so.

  5. Adding to the confusion flowing from this pandemic, it now appears the top immunologists and epidemiologists in the world can’t decide if masks help reduce the spread of COVID-19. The fact is we have seen organizations like the World Health Organization and the CDC go back and forth in their recommendations. The link to this story can be found below;